Rammed their car into a post? Mercury
must be in retrograde.
Had a pitch meeting that bored the studio executives to sleep? It’s Mercury’s fault.
Fell down the stairs after an all-night bender?
Sure the beer had something to do with it, but that front step wouldn’t
have collapsed if Mercury wasn’t plotting some sort of astrological coup.
I’ve often wondered how these same folks attribute all the good things that
happen to people on that very same day, but that’s neither here nor there. If the NFL was full of astrologists, you’d
think the entire solar system was in retrograde this week.
We’ve seen a former NFL QB-turned-head-coach bench a guy that was 6-2, leaving
no doubt Alex Smith will no longer
be wearing a 49ers jersey next year. The
Eagles, suddenly and without ceremony, released Jason Babin, one of their few quality pass-rushers left, and Babin
hardly seemed upset about it. Oakland
linebacker Rolando McClain came out
and basically said he was mentally done with the Raiders with four weeks left
in the season. Titus Young was put in a “time-out” (so aptly put by fantasy cohort
Allie Fontana), and it’s being
reported he was sent home because he intentionally lined up in the wrong place
to sabotage Detroit’s offense on a play.
I guess he didn’t like the call.
All this could be astrologically based.
Who’s to say? Of course, it also
could be reflective of a league that has now become so intently fixated on the
almighty dollar that there just aren’t any Art Rooney’s or Dick Vermeil’s or
Pete Rozelle’s left – men who mixed business with principle because they
realized to win as a team requires a family mentality.
But
probably it’s about the planet Mercury – that bastard.
THE 1PM DOCKET
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO
Coming off a disappointing loss in Miami, Seattle’s travel schedule continues
this time with a half-country flight.
Their timing is rather fortuitous because not only is the Chicago
defense reeling from injuries, but Seattle CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon
Browner won’t have to honor an impending suspension this weekend. The once stout Bears rush defense has given
up over 100 yards of rushing offense in four straight games, and three of those
featured 100-yard games from a single rusher.
Say hello to Marshawn Lynch
who’ll be in for 23-25 attempts on Sunday in order to keep Russell Wilson exposed as little as possible. He may be coming off one of his worst
outings, but prior to the bye Lynch had four 100-yard showings. While that will keep Seattle competitive, the
difference on the road for Seattle can be summed up in Russell Wilson. Out of six
road games this year, last week’s game was the first time Wilson didn’t turn
the ball. He has eight interceptions in
the other five road games, and zero picks at home. With the Bears’ big-time playmaker CB Charles Tillman hobbled with a chipped
bone in his foot, expect Wilson to look often for Sidney Rice, particularly in the red zone.
The Bears offense is likely to return Matt
Forte, who’ll go on an injured ankle, but he has struggled against Seattle
with just 2.66 yards per tote for his career. However, Seattle’s once impossibly stout run
defense has allowed over 150 yards rushing in three of the last five
games. Where the Bears are in trouble is
in the passing game. Rookie Alshon Jeffery is still out, and will
be joined this week by WR/KR Devin
Hester. With Jay
Cutler’s sloppy mechanics and only Brandon
Marshall’s reliable hands receiving the secondary’s full attention, expect Earl Bennett to rise to sleeper status
in Week 13. Remember, Bennett played
with Cutler at Vanderbilt, and with Marshall drawing the double and triple
teams, he should see a nice five catch, 75-yard day. Cutler has only had two games this season
where’s he thrown more than two touchdowns and only three games of 20 fantasy
points or more. With the numerous
injuries to his receivers group and his porous offensive line, I don’t like him
here at all.
Golden Tate will provide a decent
yardage day, as will TE Zach Miller,
but Wilson is likely to only attempt 18-20 passes for a meager 220 yards and
one score. The Seattle defense will
conquer the faltering Bears, forcing Cutler into one too many passes into
Marshall’s double coverage, and Marshawn Lynch will add 85 yards and a
touchdown.
SEAHAWKS
17, BEARS 13
INDIANAPOLIS @ DETROIT
Everyone thought Detroit’s passing offense would be in the top ten this
year. Nobody believed Indy’s would. However, this battle of two star QBs will
come down to not only the passing game, but the effectiveness of their
respective rushing attacks. Both teams
have similarly ranked rushing defenses, but when comparing Indianapolis’ Vick Ballard and Donald Brown against Mikel
Leshoure and Joique Bell, this
matchup is no contest. Besides the fact
Detroit’s second option Bell is having a stellar season averaging nearly five
yards a carry, Mikel Leshoure has been virtually unstoppable in the red zone,
scoring all six of his touchdowns inside the 10 yard line. Indy has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and I’d
play both Detroit backs here even though Detroit rushes the ball a near
league-low 33.6 percent of the time.
Deroit will take advantage of not only their superior ground game, but superior passing attack, giving Ryan Broyles an enhanced role this week as the WR2. Calvin Johnson is likely to continue his recent onslaught, and should see another 13-14 targets and eight catches worth over 110 yards. Joique Bell will continue to be a solid PPR play, and might even surprise with a rushing score of his own. The Colts 3-4 has done a pretty good job stifling production from the TE slot meaning Brandon Pettigrew’s disappointing season is likely to continue. For some reason, Detroit has fallen behind in almost every game they’ve played this year. This week it won’t happen. Andrew Luck has been a woefully different player on the road in terms of turnovers, throwing four touchdowns versus 10 interceptions outside of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions will simply focus on Reggie Wayne, virtually ignoring Donnie Avery, while racking the increasingly dangerous T. Y. Hilton, who is now a solid WR2 for your fantasy team. Dwayne Allen is a nice start against a Lions defense allowing seven of 17 TD passes to that position, but expect his line to be in the nature of two catches for 15 yards and a score. I’d give up on Donald Brown at this point, simply because Bruce Arians has no designed screen game for Luck. Ballard is worth 60 total yards but not much else. Detroit will grab the lead early, making Luck a decent play again for 275 yards passing and two touchdowns. However, it won’t be enough at Ford Field to defeat the Lions.
Deroit will take advantage of not only their superior ground game, but superior passing attack, giving Ryan Broyles an enhanced role this week as the WR2. Calvin Johnson is likely to continue his recent onslaught, and should see another 13-14 targets and eight catches worth over 110 yards. Joique Bell will continue to be a solid PPR play, and might even surprise with a rushing score of his own. The Colts 3-4 has done a pretty good job stifling production from the TE slot meaning Brandon Pettigrew’s disappointing season is likely to continue. For some reason, Detroit has fallen behind in almost every game they’ve played this year. This week it won’t happen. Andrew Luck has been a woefully different player on the road in terms of turnovers, throwing four touchdowns versus 10 interceptions outside of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions will simply focus on Reggie Wayne, virtually ignoring Donnie Avery, while racking the increasingly dangerous T. Y. Hilton, who is now a solid WR2 for your fantasy team. Dwayne Allen is a nice start against a Lions defense allowing seven of 17 TD passes to that position, but expect his line to be in the nature of two catches for 15 yards and a score. I’d give up on Donald Brown at this point, simply because Bruce Arians has no designed screen game for Luck. Ballard is worth 60 total yards but not much else. Detroit will grab the lead early, making Luck a decent play again for 275 yards passing and two touchdowns. However, it won’t be enough at Ford Field to defeat the Lions.
LIONS
24, COLTS 20
The recent addition of Jason Babin could
help the Jags defense, which hasn’t allowed an opposing RB into the end zone
the last three games. This includes
games against Houston and Tennessee. Now
he’ll add to a pass rush which managed just 13 sacks all year. C.J.
Spiller is fighting a shoulder problem, but he’s still managing 6.7 yards
per tally, and even if he’s getting only 60 percent of the carries this week,
that should amount to no less than 15 attempts.
That means you’re looking at a return of 120 total yards and a
touchdown. The Jags secondary has given
up 14 passing scores, and 66 receptions to opposing tight ends. Only two other teams have allowed as many
catches to opposing TEs, making Scott
Chandler possible red zone target, but Chandler has had just one TD in the last
seven games. Stevie Johnson also becomes a viable WR2 play, as he’s had no less
than seven targets the last five games, and though that’s only garnered him one
TD, he’s gained 271 yards the last three weeks.
The Rams offense has been an enigma all year and maybe that’s because Brian
Schottenheimer can be as indecisive as his father. For awhile there it appeared Daryl Richardson was making inroads on
the RB1 spot. Recently, Steven Jackson has been infused with
new energy, putting up two 100-yard performances in three games, one of which
was against these 49ers. Both will get
plenty of opportunities, simply because the 49ers pass rush has been on a sack
tear as of late. Aldon Smith has delivered 12 in just five weeks. meaning TE Lance Kendricks, already more of a
blocker by trade, could stay home more often, particularly in long distance
down scenarios. Wide receiver Chris Givens has vaulted to the top of
the ‘most dangerous receivers’ list averaging over 21 yards per catch while
leading the NFL in yards after the catch.
Sam Bradford isn’t afraid to
launch one deep any time Givens is matched in single coverage, even against the
49er secondary. Defensively, Rams’ sack leader
DE Robert Quinn has yet to be
cleared for Sunday’s game after suffering a concussion. His loss would be tremendous for a Rams
defense that will want to pressure Kaepernick into some novice error.
Last game, the Rams attacked the 49ers deep, completing three of their four
deep attempts for 77 yards and a touchdown.
Danny Amendola's (doubtful)
absence will cause a void of 7-8 receptions.
The 49ers playbook will be opened to let Kaepernick take a few shots
deep of his own. Expect Manningham to
see 5-6 targets and 60-70 yards. Vernon Davis should also find his way
onto the score sheet. The key will be Frank Gore, simply because with the
thinning depth chart at RB, if Gore can’t get something started, Kaepernick
will be faced with longer yardage situations, which could spell trouble against
the Rams. Gore’s last meeting in St.
Louis saw him gain nine yards on seven attempts. He’ll have to do better this week, and he
will, managing 75-80 yards and a touchdown.
This one could be a lot more action-packed than people would think, and
I’ll defer to the 49ers defense as the stronger of the two units and more
likely to make a statement in this one.
Brady and company will attempt to take away the run, and force Ryan
Tannehill to keep up with the high flying Patriots offense. With Rob
Gronkowski out, you’ll see the Patriots combine a mixture of Julian Edelman, Aaron Hernandez and Danny
Woodhead in their short passing attack.
They’ll likely run an early no-huddle in an attempt to quickly grab a
lead. Wes Welker makes a solid play against his former franchise.
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO
Chad Henne must have sailed under a
new astrological sign, huh? He has
almost single-handedly reinvigorated a Jaguars offense that was left for dead
the moment Maurice Jones-Drew limped
off the field with his injured foot.
Henne has also given fantasy owners reason to believe as well with two
weeks of 30 and 16 points in ESPN standard leagues, and against a Bills team
giving up the seventh most points to opposing QBs, he’s worth a gamble start in
two QB leagues. The Bills whole
defensive line is aching with both Mark Anderson
and Kyle Williams not practicing
earlier this week. That’s good news for
Henne, who has still managed to get sacked nine times in his two starts and
isn’t much more mobile than Peyton Manning.
Rashad Jennings finds himself
willed into the starting RB position after Jalen
Parmele found the I.R. as quickly as he found the starting rotation. While Buffalo is the kindest defense in terms
of giving up fantasy points to opposing rushers, expect Mike Mularkey to push
his offense into Henne’s hot hand, meaning Jennings figures to put up maybe
35-40 yards on 8-9 carries. Justin Blackmon has suddenly come
alive, and he and Cecil Shorts now look
like a dangerous tandem, with Shorts rising to become one of the top deep-play
threats in the league. He has nine big
play catches (defined as over 20 yards) and is second best in yards after the
catch averaging nearly 21 yards after the grab.
In two games with Henne, Blackmon has been targeted 20 times for 298 yards
and two scores. I like Blackmon as a
solid WR3 for your team this week. Even better reason to use Jags players is
the fact that their defense prior to the Tennessee game had given up no less
than 24 points per week. That means they
will have to score a lot to stay competitive.
 |
| Reborn as a Jaguar? |
The Bills have managed to score more than 20 points just once in the last four
games while the Jags are playing with renewed life. Henne’s playing for a reason while the Bills
are playing for the off-season.
JAGUARS 23, BILLS 17
MINNESOTA
@ GREEN BAY
Just a couple of months ago, the Packers offense was ranked 16th,
and everyone expected their offensive upswing to continue after they shellacked
the Houston Texans. Their offense is now
ranked 18th. Decimated by
what’s now a season-ending injury for Cedric
Benson, as well as the intermittent losses of Greg Jennings and Jordy
Nelson, it’s amazing that the Packers are still 4-1 since that game. It hasn’t always looked pretty, but Aaron Rodgers has thrown 28 touchdowns
against just seven interceptions.
Fantasy owners might not embrace the return of Greg Jennings this week for
fear he’ll continue the disappearing act of James Jones. It’s a
legitimate worry, though I’d contend that Randall
Cobb and the recently awakened Jermichael
Finley may be most hurt by Jennings’ return. Jones’ hot start has simply balanced out, and
Jennings’ return mean single coverage for Jones and more chances for him to
find the end zone. Cobb is still a
return man first, and likely will get a few series here and there, but not at
the expense of Jennings or Nelson.
For the Vikings, it has been a downward trend, and besides Adrian Peterson, there’s been little to be giddy about unless you
consider Percy Harvin’s injury a
highlight. The one thing that Green Bay
has improved upon is its rush defense, now ranked 11th. That’s not good news for a team that needs to
control the time of possession to win this one.
With Toby Gerhart factoring
little, expect Peterson to get a full day’s load of 22-25 carries. Peterson has scored at least once in each of
the last two meetings with Green Bay, and Sunday is likely to be the same. Christian
Ponder has floundered recently, though he and Jarius Wright has made great strides with 15 targets 114 yards and
a touchdown in the past two games. With
Harvin ruled out for Sunday, Wright is a strong candidate for a flex play.
The Packers will try to score quickly, take Adrian Peterson out of the game and
force the game into Ponder’s hands.
Ponder hasn’t delivered more than one two-touchdown performance in the
past five games, while throwing five INTs.
A healthy Greg Jennings will
certainly present challenges for Antoine
Winfield and company, and the Packers simply will outman the Vikings, who
won’t be able to keep up on offense.
PACKERS
31, VIKINGS 17
CAROLINA
@ KANSAS CITY
Panthers QB Cam Newton gave fantasy
owners something to smile about last week, unless of course you own any part of
the Carolina rushing attack. Newton is
the team’s leading rusher, which should tell you all you need to know about the
usefulness of their two highly paid RBs DeAngelo
Williams and Jonathan Stewart (henceforth
known at “De-Stew”). De-Stew faces a
favorable matchup, which in Rod Chudzinski terms means 90 yards on 20 attempts
combined. For all the talk of Williams’
demotion, he has just two less carries than Stewart. However, he is now being targeted less than
once per game. Wide receiver Brandon LaFell has slowly been usurping
the top wide receiver spot from Steve
Smith. He has eight grabs for 167
yards and two touchdowns in their last two contests but will face a much better
Chiefs secondary and yardage will be harder to come by.
If you think the Panthers have problems, Romeo Crennel has Brady Quinn under center, the QB who claimed his light ‘went on’
after throwing two interceptions while filling in for the injured Matt Cassel against Tampa Bay. I’m not sure if that light was the fasten seatbelt sign pilots use during
air travel to let you know you’re in for a bumpy ride, but since then Quinn has
added two more interceptions, zero touchdowns all whilst engineering throws no
longer than your average ring toss. If you own anyone Kansas City besides Jamaal Charles or Shaun Draughn, my apologies.
Both runners will be useful this game not only on the ground against a
Carolina rush defense ceding 4.5 yards per attempt, but through the air. The Panthers have given up the most
receptions to opposing RBs in the NFL.
Ron Rivera's team is trying to set a tone for next year, assuming he has one left. He's likely to be pretty aggressive and let Cam Newton do what he does best -- use his mobility and strong arm to make plays. That should allow Newton to gain 250 yards passing, another 40-50 rishing and two passing touchdowns. He's likely to steal another rushing TD as well. The Chiefs will keep it close for awhile with Jamaal Charles adding another 18-20 rushing attempts and 100 yards, only to lost his TD opportunity to Peyton Hillis. The Panthers are 3-8 this year, but two of thsoe victories came on the road. They'll add a third.
PANTHERS
21, CHIEFS 10
HOUSTON
@ TENNESSEE
The Texans and Titans feature two of the biggest stud fantasy backs in the
league. Arian Foster has carried the ball less than 20 times only twice
this year and has crossed 1,000 yards already.
Chris Johnson has 20-plus
carries in three of the fast four contests and needs just 58 more yards to
break the 1,000 yard plateau. The last
time these two teams met it was Johnson who topped out with 141 yards, his
first 100-yard performance of the season.
Johnson should be in your lineup again, but I don't see another 100-yard
performance here.
Considering offenses have put up 100 more points on Tennessee than the Titans have put upon their opponents, this game should again be Houston's to lose. With Ben Tate returning, it's likely Foster won't exceed 20 carries, but could easily see 18-19, and will get you at least one touchdown and 75-plus yards. Andre Johnson has been heating up, but was limited in practice with a groin issue, and that could prevent him from spreading the field the way he's capable. However, he's had no less than 10 targets the last six games, and though this game may not require a lot of passing, he will end up with 7-8 targets. Owen Daniels is Matt Schaub's other stellar target, and he's good for at least eight more targets at well this weekend.
Considering offenses have put up 100 more points on Tennessee than the Titans have put upon their opponents, this game should again be Houston's to lose. With Ben Tate returning, it's likely Foster won't exceed 20 carries, but could easily see 18-19, and will get you at least one touchdown and 75-plus yards. Andre Johnson has been heating up, but was limited in practice with a groin issue, and that could prevent him from spreading the field the way he's capable. However, he's had no less than 10 targets the last six games, and though this game may not require a lot of passing, he will end up with 7-8 targets. Owen Daniels is Matt Schaub's other stellar target, and he's good for at least eight more targets at well this weekend.
Houston will pounce on the Titans early, leaving Jake Locker to try to pull this one out. Though he's a got a big arm, his accuracy
still falters at times, and the Houston secondary is strong enough to take
advantage. I wouldn't put it past him to
hit Nate Washington for a deep
touchdown as Houston has been victimized recently by both Detroit and
Jacksonville, but in fantasy playoff week, I'm not risking Kenny Britt or Jared Cook
against the Texans unless I have no choice.
TEXANS
27, TITANS 14
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST. LOUIS
Ah, the Colin Kaepernick era
begins. You can feel that fresh air of
inconclusiveness rushing right by your face, can’t you? After taking a week of flack for defending Alex Smith’s right to start (Kaepernick’s better, he's got a better arm, he's
so much more mobile, etc. – all things
which I wrote first), we’ll get to see Kaepernick make his case on the field as
a starter against the 12th ranked Rams defense on their turf. The good news for Frank Gore owners is that both Kyle
Willams and Kendall Hunter are
done for the season. That means more
rushes this week, and he’ll be spelled by Brandon
Jacobs and maybe Anthony Dixon. The bad news is that Kaepernick has had two rushing TDs in three games
under center, making Gore’s likelihood at pay dirt more limited. However, both TEs Vernon Davis and Delanie
Walker get a boost, as Kaepernick has been almost exclusively targeting his
tight ends all over the field. Mario Manningham emerged as his first
WR choice against New Orleans, and as the playbook expands, Kaepernick’s
fearless nature could provide more scoring opportunities for the receiver.
 |
| C.K.'s mobility and strong arm get him the start. |
49ERS
28, RAMS 17
NEW YORK JETS @ ARIZONA
It's hard to understand why Rex Ryan would be on the chopping block with his
team and Ken Whisenhunt wouldn't be with Arizona. After all, the Cardinals were 4-0 and are now
4-6. I suspect it comes down to one thing:
expectations. New York's were just as
unrealistic as their coach's, and in Arizona they just naturally expect
failure.
Last week, Ryan Lindley actually
started to impersonate a QB with his stat line of 31-of-52 line 312 yards. Unfortunately, he still hasn't thrown a TD
pass in two games and added four more picks.
For the Cardinals, they have to limit the turnovers to beat the
Jets. The threesome of LaRod Stephens-Howling, Beanie Wells and William Powell should be able to work over the Jets front seven,
which is giving up 4.2 yards per carry.
Powell has become more involved in the passing attack, and it would
behoove Lindley to throw more screens this week as the Rex Ryan's defense will
attempt to pressure him into bad decisions early. Larry
Fitzgerald has just four catches since Lindley took the helm, and you can
expect this tough Jets secondary to focus on not letting him beat them. Thus, Andre
Roberts who had nine catches last week, is your best option, along with TE Rob Housler. One-third of the Jets passing TDs have gone
to tight ends, and though Housler has yet to score, only six teams give up more
points to TEs than New York. Rookie QBs
tend to eye the middle of the field a lot and if you doubt me, see Housler's best
game of the season last week as evidence.
Arizona's secondary may be ranked fourth, but a good part of that is based on
the fact that only they and Denver sack QBs on over eight percent of their
dropbacks. Mark Sanchez has been sacked 26 times, and isn't a much better QB
at home than he is on the road. For
Sanchez to be successful, the Jets must get Shonn Greene going against the Cardinals 23rd ranked
rushing defense. Though they've only
allowed just five rushing TDs, the Cardinals allow 124 rushing yards per
contest. Greene is coming off a 5.1 per
carry game against New England, but that game was so out of hand early that
it's hard to put much faith in it.
Greene also has managed just 13 catches to Powell's nine, so neither of
these guys are ones to heavily invest in, but if you have to start someone, it
has to be Greene. Jeremy Kerley is the only receiver playing you might start as a
flex or WR3, but he's going to have to face the physical Patrick Peterson, and that means Chaz Schilens is likely to get a shot at better numbers.
Lindley may be a rookie, but after watching Sanchez collide with his own offensive lineman while Lindley threw for 300 yards against St. Louis, I don't give this one to the Jets so easily. I wouldn't shy away from playing either DEF/ST this week as they are among the best fantasy defenses. I think Lindley throws his first TD, builds on his game last week, and Arizona's defense on the road makes a few crucial plays to take the victory. They have yet to get a pick-six this year and they're due.
Lindley may be a rookie, but after watching Sanchez collide with his own offensive lineman while Lindley threw for 300 yards against St. Louis, I don't give this one to the Jets so easily. I wouldn't shy away from playing either DEF/ST this week as they are among the best fantasy defenses. I think Lindley throws his first TD, builds on his game last week, and Arizona's defense on the road makes a few crucial plays to take the victory. They have yet to get a pick-six this year and they're due.
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
The Patriots have been scoring points in Josh McDaniel’s offense as if they were back in 2007. The last four games have seen the Pats plant 190 points on the opposition. Stevan Ridley has become this team’s Lawrence Maroney, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He’s just 61 yards away from a 1,000 yard season, and inevitably will become the Patriots second runner this decade to do that. The Dolphins rushing attack is even more crucial for them in this matchup. Starting fast against a Patriots team that can score in seconds isn’t going to help. They’ll put an even larger emphasis on long sustained drives meant to bleed the clock and keep Tom Brady off the field. Yet both teams sport a top ten rushing defense, and a bottom third passing defense, so this one will come down to the quarterbacks.
The Patriots have been scoring points in Josh McDaniel’s offense as if they were back in 2007. The last four games have seen the Pats plant 190 points on the opposition. Stevan Ridley has become this team’s Lawrence Maroney, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He’s just 61 yards away from a 1,000 yard season, and inevitably will become the Patriots second runner this decade to do that. The Dolphins rushing attack is even more crucial for them in this matchup. Starting fast against a Patriots team that can score in seconds isn’t going to help. They’ll put an even larger emphasis on long sustained drives meant to bleed the clock and keep Tom Brady off the field. Yet both teams sport a top ten rushing defense, and a bottom third passing defense, so this one will come down to the quarterbacks.
And that’s where the comparison falls apart.
Last year when these two clubs met in Southern Florida, the Patriots
escaped with a 27-24 victory. Reggie Bush put up over 130 yards
rushing and while Matt Moore threw three TD passes to keep pace with Brady and
make the game close. Ryan Tannehill isn’t quite as good as
Matt Moore yet. Tannehill’s managed just
one game over 300 yards passing, and has five more interceptions than
touchdowns. Bush has had success against
New England, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 33 attempts in two games. He and Daniel
Thomas will likely share 25-30 carries if the Dolphins are having a good
day, 20-25 if they’re not. However, it’s
likely Bush is featured in the screen game a lot to try to take advantage of
his speed and take the pressure off of Tannehill. Therefore, he’s still a strong PPR play. Brian
Hartline becomes a solid start against the Patriots iffy secondary. He’s the more physical receiver, and though Davone Bess has come on strong lately,
Hartline still leads the team in targets.
The Patriots give up the second most points to opposing tight ends, but
I still don’t like Anthony Fasano
for more than 50 yards. He’s
questionable with a hip problem, and that could mean another solid week for Charles Clay. A touchdown would be a strong possibility
in this game for whoever plays the middle.
 |
| Hartline should be in for a big day |
With Chandler Jones and Don’t’a
Hightower both questionable, the Patriots pass rush could be compromised,
which would lead to a much closer game. The Patriots are a ridiculous plus 24 in
turnover ratio and has forced 26 fumbles.
Those numbers are bound to take a turn the other way, and while I could
see the Dolphins giving New England all they can handle, with a rookie QB like
Tannehill leading the charge, the end result is likely to return favorable
results.
PATRIOTS 31, DOLPHINS 19
THE 4PM DOCKET
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO
Philip Rivers has become
increasingly sloppy with his play. Already
unorthodox in his side-arm sling of the football, Rivers has fallen into some
bad habits of not planting his feet properly, and occasionally trying to zip
the ball into area with two or three defenders hovering. The result has been 14 interceptions in just
11 games. It’s like he’s channeling Jay
Cutler for all of the wrong reasons. The
Chargers once strong defense has started to regress, and with the turnovers
mounting, now’s not a great time for the Bengals to take on the Chargers.
Cincinnati’s running game of BenJarvus
Green-Ellis and Cedric Peerman
have had two straight weeks of greater than 150 yards rushing, and A. J. Green continues to be virtually
unstoppable, averaging 93 receiving yards per contest. Peerman has fast been becoming more and more a
part of the offense, and has 16 carries for 136 yards the past two games (over
eight yards per carry). Green will make life miserable for Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason, though speedy Andrew
Hawkins might make the biggest impact.
The loss of WR Mohamed Sanu makes
Green the likely target of double teams, and Hawkins is incredibly difficult to
cover one on one. However, if he can’t
go, expect Brandon Tate or Marvin Jones to step in, making Green
all the more attractive against San Diego’s declining passing defense. Dalton is also likely to use the hot hand of Jermaine Gresham. The 24 year-old TE has scored twice in the
last three games, and grabbed 19 passes for 233 in the last four. The Chargers are tough in the middle of the
field with safety Eric Weddle and
linebackers Shaun Philips and Takeo Spikes, so Gresham is unlikely to
find the end zone.
The Chargers will attempt to exploit Cincinnati’s weaker rush defense, though
the Bengals entire unit hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in the last three
contests. Norv Turner and Clarence
Shelmon have been unable to decide
who of Ryan Mathews, Jackie Battle
or Ronnie Brown they trust the
least, leaving Mathews to lead his team in carries but not receptions where he
might be strongest. Last week, Mathews
carried the ball 19 times against the Ravens, his most totes in five weeks. Ronnie
Brown has 41 receptions this year, a career high, not to mention second
most on the team. Browns overuse may to
be an attempt to fill the gap that Antonio
Gates’ decline has left on the offense.
Expect Rivers to look to Malcom Floyd
and new top threat Denario Alexander more,
but against a Cincinnati pass rush led by Geno
Atkins, he might not have time to get the ball downfield. Atkins and company have helped create 10 turnovers
in the past six games, so Rivers is likely to exploit his tandem’s height
advantage. How he does that will again
come down to his choices and mechanics. I like both Chargers’ receivers to be viable
fantasy plays with Alexander topping out in yards and both ending up in the end
zone. Expect Mathews to get another bulk
of the carries, with Jackie Battle grabbing
four to five of his own, and perhaps a few red zone rushes. Brown could make a decent PPR play as the
Bengals have given up 73 receptions to RBs, tied for third most in the league.
If Rivers protects the ball, the Chargers should be able to repel the suddenly hot Bengals. But I don’t believe this team will get out of its own way long enough to do that. River will give you a 235-yard day and a few touchdowns, but I wouldn’t rule out a fumble or two and an interception. Since starting 2-0 the Charegers are 2-7 and the only team they’ve beaten is the Kansas City Chiefs….twice.
If Rivers protects the ball, the Chargers should be able to repel the suddenly hot Bengals. But I don’t believe this team will get out of its own way long enough to do that. River will give you a 235-yard day and a few touchdowns, but I wouldn’t rule out a fumble or two and an interception. Since starting 2-0 the Charegers are 2-7 and the only team they’ve beaten is the Kansas City Chiefs….twice.
BENGALS 26, CHARGERS 20
CLEVELAND @ OAKLAND
Darren McFadden is expected to
return to the sideline for the first time in four weeks, hopeful that he can
get the Raiders train moving in a positive direction. However, after the derailment that has
happened this week that might not be possible.
Offensive Line Coach and former player Steve Wisniewski resigned suddenly on Friday. This was preceded by LB Rolando McClain’s removal from practice Wednesday and subsequent
Facebook declaration that he was looking forward to playing for a real team. He’s been suspended for two games starting
this weekend.
Though having only won three games, the
Browns come into Oakland on a high after defeating the Steelers 20-13. Cleveland has yet to win a road game, but
this one shapes up as a true possibility for a victory. Trent
Richardson will be given 23-27 carries if the Browns have their way,
especially after witnessing BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Doug Martin amass 380
yards between them against Oakland’s front seven. Not only that, but the Raiders have allowed
at least one rushing touchdown in four straight games. Expect Richardson’s ceiling to be 125 yards
and at least one TD. Brandon Weeden will throw the ball to a
variety of receivers, but none more than Josh
Gordon and Greg Little. They have six touchdowns between them
this year, but Little is the possession guy with the most targets, so if I’m
deferring to anyone fantasy wise, it’s still him.
Oakland’s Marcel Reece filled in more
than adequately for both McFadden and Mike
Goodson. Reece sewed his oats as a
hybrid type player, often being used as a lead blocker while being targeted out
of the backfield in the red zone. Coming
off two games where he ran 34 times for 177 yards, expect he’ll still get some
carries. Oakland is paying for both
these guys, and while I wouldn’t expect Goodson or McFadden to get a huge
tally, if McFadden plays, he’ll still take 8-9 carries away from Reece, making
Reece an RB2 play at best. Carson Palmer only has one game where
he failed to throw a touchdown pass, and the Browns give up the seventh most points
to opposing wide receivers. That’s a
clever way of saying you can start both Palmer and WR Denarius Moore, and if
you’re in deeper leagues, Darius
Heyward-Bey.
It’s hard to imagine Palmer or any of the long-time professionals not
putting forth a strong effort, but this Raiders team is in shambles, and the
toll it took in practice this week will be evident on the field.
BROWNS 20, RAIDERS 14
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER
The Buccaneers came within a point of making themselves relevant in the NFC
South divisional race. Now they have to
face a Denver team that has just started to peek. John Fox
started and emphasized Knowshon
Moreno the entire game against K.C., shocking those that felt Ronnie Hillman was in line to be the
top replacement candidate. Moreno ended
up with 111 all-purpose yards and average 4.3 yards per carry on 20 totes,
while Hillman received just three
carries. However, any desires you have
to play a Denver RB should be put in storage until next week because the
Buccaneers have a dominating run defense, ceding just 81.5 yards per game and
stuffing runners at a ridiculous 22 percent clip. The only way one of these guys is likely to
find a touchdown is if it comes to them.
Peyton Manning will to find
himself attempting 40 passes in this one, and a 300-yard game with 2-3
touchdowns is easily within his grasp.
The Bucs defense has been beaten for two 80-yard touchdown passes in the
past three weeks. That makes TEs like Jacob Tamme a receiver non grata and a guy like Demaryius Thomas a receiver
gonna starta. Eric Decker might top out with the most targets (think 10) and
manage near 100 yards himself, but it will be Thomas with a couple of deep game
breakers.
Josh Freeman has it a little
trickier. As we’ve seen these past five
weeks or so, he’s purely capable of getting into a shootout against a solid
offense and coming out on top. Vincent Jackson is just 41 yards away
from his fourth career 1,000-yard season, and will likely get it this
week. While Denver gives up just 210
yards per contest in the air, they have given up 18 passing touchdowns, the
same number as the Bucs. Big receivers
have found the end zone with little problem against Denver, making Jackson a
safe start this week. Mike Williams disappears every once in
awhile, but as much as the Bucs want to rush Doug Martin against Denver ninth ranked rush defense, the
likelihood is they’ll have to throw to loosen up Denver’s front seven. Thus I’d consider starting Williams as well. Meanwhile, Denver yields just 3.6 yards per
carry and that doesn’t bode well for Martin to have a strong day. Expect maybe 10-12 carries for 60 yards and
not much more on the ground. Where he
could make up more is through screen plays of differing kinds. The game shapes up to be an aerial battle,
and though Josh Freeman has some mobility, he’s facing the best pass rushing
team in the league. Both Von Miler and Elvis Dumervil will be in his face all day, so expect dump offs to
Doug Martin, and even TE Dallas Clark,
who has come on as of late for 12 receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown in
the last three weeks. No team is worse
at guarding TEs than Denver, so Clark is a nice sleeper. I expect four catches for 35 yards and a
score.
Denver’s biggest issue this week is
their rushing attack and the fact that while they are a minus-three in turnover
ratio, Tampa Bay is an amazing plus 11.
Denver’s tendency to fall behind could kill them this week as the
Buccaneers offense has enough weapons to protect a double digit gap. I don’t expect Denver will allow that again,
but I’d take Tampa Bay and the points.
BRONCOS 37, BUCCANEERS 31
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
Joe Flacco’s claims of being elite
actually make sense when he plays at home.
At home, Flacco completes 11 percent more of his passes and averages
almost four more yards per attempt. Still,
the Steelers know this offense starts and ends with Ray Rice. Pittsburgh has the
best defense in the land, and are ranked sixth against the run. Rice failed to gain more than two yards per
carry last game in Pittsburgh, but on turf, Rice is a different runner
altogether. He averages about eight more
touchdowns a year when he’s playing on that surface, and last year in opener in
Baltimore, Rice put on a show against Pittsburgh, gaining 5.6 yards per carry,
and scoring two touchdowns. Rice may not
come through with RB1 numbers Sunday, but you can’t bench a stud in Week
13. Torrey
Smith will again face CB Ike Taylor,
leaving Anquan Boldin for
possibly another 7-8 catch afternoon.
However, this time I think Flacco will connect for a couple of
touchdowns (Smith included), and if the Ravens can stop Dwyer and Mendenhall
from early down yardage, Charlie Batch will find himself in for a long
day.
Much like the truth, picking the outcome of this game lies somewhere inbetween their past history.. However, it is necessary to defer to Joe Flacco’s experience and ability to move the chains. Pittsburgh’s best hope is some early down passes and a solid rushing attack against the Ravens 26thranked rush defense. I think they get that but can’t overcome Batch’s limitations.
RAVENS 22, STEELERS 13
It seems like every time I come across a game like this one the first thought that
goes through my head is, the schedulers
thought they had a juicy one. What
has almost always been a tremendous game with playoff implications now looks
about as interesting as Cleveland and Oakland.
Ok, nothing really is as bad this week as Cleveland visiting Oakland,
but this one is fighting to be a close second.
Dallas has had a disappointing season (gee, where have I heard that
before?), and the Eagles have imploded.
Last week, QB Nick Foles may not have had great stats, but his line of 16-for-21 for 119 yards looked a little more QB-like. Not NFL QB-like, but QB-like. Since Foles’ first game where the rookie hurled the ball down the field against the Cowboys and averaged 6.8 per attempt, his stats have collapsed to 4.4 yards and 5.7 yards per throw. This could be a sign he’s becoming more cautious, something you never really want to see in a young QB. You want the bad interceptions to go away, not the attempts to spread the field. Now, he travels to Dallas for his third start amid controversy galore voiced by Vick that the Eagles are using the NFL’s concussion recovery rules as an excuse to keep him off the field. I have news for you Michael, they don’t need much more excuse than your stats. With LeSean McCoy out, Foles has Bryce Brown again starting behind him. Who would have thought that might actually be an improvement? Brown averaged 9.4 yards per carry last week against Carolina, and if he can curtail his MichaelVick-itis, (aka fumbling problem no doubt brought on by prolonged exposure to Michael Vick’s hands), he’ll give you solid numbers and might be the only part of his offense worth using. Dallas is likely to crowd the box, making Foles throw as often as he can. That means you can expect some early down short yardage throws to TE Brent Celek, Brown and possibly Clay Harbor out of the backfield. With DeSean Jackson out, Jeremy Maclin is the only truly reliable set of hands for fantasy, though Jason Avant is experience enough to get into the act. Regardless, don’t expect a lot of points except from this offensive cast except maybe Alex Henery, who I contend will continue to get tons of chances. On defense, Brandon Graham will start in place of the freshly released Jason Babin. He’ll get a chance to make a splash against a Dallas front five that has allowed 26 sacks this season.
When last they met, the Steelers prevented the Ravens from scoring a single
offensive touchdown. They better do the
same this week because as physical a game as it’s likely to be, the Steelers
simply can’t match the Ravens stride for stride when their strides are coming
from 37-year old Charlie Batch. Just three days away from his 38th
Birthday Sunday, Batch will likely be given a game plan of heavy runs and short
passes, not so unlike most of Todd Haley’s plans this year. However, Batch’s arm limitations were obvious
last week. I predicted in their previous
meeting the Steelers would try to get on top with a deep attack to Mike Wallace, something they attempted
in their first series. However,
Wallace’s value is already in decline, and that’s not just because Batch is
under center. Wallace’s hands have been
in question all year. We’re used to
seeing numbers of just over 50-60 percent completions to Wallace, but that’s
usually associated with 18-20 yards per catch average. This year Wallace is at the 55 percent range,
but has just 572 yards on 47 catches, an average of just 12 yards per
catch. Antonio Brown’s return spells the end of Wallace being a solid
fantasy option until Ben Roethlisberger
returns. Running back Jonathan Dwyer gets the start, and
while I don’t think the demotion of Rashard
Mendenhall makes sense, I do think these two used in tandem makes for a
nostalgic rendition of Jerome Bettis/Willie Parker. Dwyer is so much like Bettis it’s scary, and
against a solid tackling team like Baltimore, he’ll struggle if he doesn’t stay
low to the ground.
 |
| Wallace won't be useful until Ben returns |
Much like the truth, picking the outcome of this game lies somewhere inbetween their past history.. However, it is necessary to defer to Joe Flacco’s experience and ability to move the chains. Pittsburgh’s best hope is some early down passes and a solid rushing attack against the Ravens 26thranked rush defense. I think they get that but can’t overcome Batch’s limitations.
RAVENS 22, STEELERS 13
SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
PHILADELPHIA
@ DALLAS
 |
| The Cowboys won't get cute with Murray |
Last week, QB Nick Foles may not have had great stats, but his line of 16-for-21 for 119 yards looked a little more QB-like. Not NFL QB-like, but QB-like. Since Foles’ first game where the rookie hurled the ball down the field against the Cowboys and averaged 6.8 per attempt, his stats have collapsed to 4.4 yards and 5.7 yards per throw. This could be a sign he’s becoming more cautious, something you never really want to see in a young QB. You want the bad interceptions to go away, not the attempts to spread the field. Now, he travels to Dallas for his third start amid controversy galore voiced by Vick that the Eagles are using the NFL’s concussion recovery rules as an excuse to keep him off the field. I have news for you Michael, they don’t need much more excuse than your stats. With LeSean McCoy out, Foles has Bryce Brown again starting behind him. Who would have thought that might actually be an improvement? Brown averaged 9.4 yards per carry last week against Carolina, and if he can curtail his MichaelVick-itis, (aka fumbling problem no doubt brought on by prolonged exposure to Michael Vick’s hands), he’ll give you solid numbers and might be the only part of his offense worth using. Dallas is likely to crowd the box, making Foles throw as often as he can. That means you can expect some early down short yardage throws to TE Brent Celek, Brown and possibly Clay Harbor out of the backfield. With DeSean Jackson out, Jeremy Maclin is the only truly reliable set of hands for fantasy, though Jason Avant is experience enough to get into the act. Regardless, don’t expect a lot of points except from this offensive cast except maybe Alex Henery, who I contend will continue to get tons of chances. On defense, Brandon Graham will start in place of the freshly released Jason Babin. He’ll get a chance to make a splash against a Dallas front five that has allowed 26 sacks this season.
The Cowboys couldn’t be happier to have DeMarco
Murray back. And don’t think he’ll
be eased into the offense again. The
Cowboys are playing for their playoff lives right now, and if he’s available, I’d
expect the delicate Murray to get as many carries as his ankle will allow. Whether you want to risk him in your lineup
depends on the gambler in you. No doubt,
Felix Jones will see some work, and as
he showed last week, is great in the screen game. Jason
Witten is having another season where he has seven catches a game but
manages one touchdown all year. Pretty
soon any time someone has a lone touchdown we’ll just say, ‘he got his Witten’ for the year.
Why the Cowboys can’t find this guy around the end zone is confounding,
but then again, so is the Cowboys offense.
Dez Bryant has come into his
own in recent weeks, and is the best option against the Eagles secondary other
than Witten.
DeMarcus Ware should cause
some havoc for young Foles. Tony Romo should give leading target Jason Witten an easy seven to 10
fantasy points in standard leagues, and the return of DeMarco Murray should
help take some pressure off of Romo.
COWBOYS 17, EAGLES 10
MONDAY NIGHT GAME
NEW
YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The
Redskins have won two straight to get themselves back into contention in the
NFC East. The Giants broke out of a
three game slump by lambasting the Packers.
This game has added importance because it’s divisional and would put the
Redskins a single game behind the Giants should New York falter.
Some interesting notes on this game:
- Since taking over as the Giants head coach, Tom Coughlin is a barely noticeable 18-19 in December. This coincides with Eli Manning’s worst completion percentage as a QB (55 percent in December). For November 2012, Manning has already fallen to his lowest rate of 55 percent….where to now
- The Redskins are the most penalized team in the NFL and it isn’t even close. They have 93 penalties against them for a whopping 770 yards. The league average is 70 for 594 yards
- Only two teams have attempted less passes than the Redskins – the Seahawks and the 49ers - both NFC West franchises, both with top RBs and both with essentially rookie QBs now.
Eli Manning has struggled through November. Of course, he faced three top ten defenses in Pittsburgh, Dallas and Cincinnati. Now he gets the Redskins, a top five worst team in giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs, WRs and TEs. With the returned health of his wide receivers and the importance of this game, expect big days from Eli even though his recent history at Washington saw him complete just 56 percent of his passes. Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot issues are better, but it wouldn’t surprise me down the stretch to see even more of David Wilson than you might think. The Giants still own their division, and they could ill afford to lose Bradshaw, leaving the rookie as their main option. Thus, when the Giants get the lead in this one, expect Wilson’s carries to equal out with Bradshaw’s. So taper expectation for Bradshaw, and not just because the Redskins rushing defense is ranked third.
Robert Griffin knows that this game could put his team back in contention for the division, and Griffin is a mobile enough QB to give the Giants all they can handle. In his first game against the G-men, Griffin completed over 70 percent of his passes and threw two touchdowns With Alfred Morris about to cross 1,000 yards, expect the Redskins to attempt to run the ball often, with an occasionally big strike to Pierre Garcon or Santana Moss to keep the Giants defense honest. Morris should be up for 100 yards, as the Giants yield 4.4 yards per carry.
Expect a high scoring affair with both QBs providing solid fantasy
numbers. Hakeem Nicks has 14 catches the past two games, and when a QB is
struggling as Eli has, a big target is a welcome site. I like Nicks for at least 85 yards and a
score. However, the Giants defense has
come alive and even with Jason
Pierre-Paul questionable, the pass rush of their front four is a difference
maker in this crucial game.
GIANTS 31, REDSKINS 27
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