NFL Football is a game of trends. Last year, that trend was the emergence of more tight ends as viable to downfield receivers than ever before. This year it’s clear that your offense will fall into one of two categories. You either have a mobile, athletic quarterback who can make plays with his arm and feet (names like Vick, Wilson, Newton or Griffin III), or you have a pocket passing quarterback, in which case you’re now using a hybrid RB/WR to add various looks to your offense (players like Harvin, Sproles, McCluster, Tebow, Hernandez, Benjamin). Those trends are changing the ways defenses have to prepare for any given team, and making offenses more diverse than ever before.
1PM DOCKET
TAMPA BAY @ NEW YORK GIANTS
What should the Buccaneers take from seeing the Cowboys dismantle the Giants in their home opener RB yard? Stay patient with the running game. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray had all of 20 rushing yards at the end of the first half, yet finished with 131. Doug Martin, the Bucs new bell-cow, didn’t score in Week 1, but had 24 carries and 95 yards. With the Giants hardly a ball-control team, the Bucs will attempt to control the tempo on the road, and are going to give Martin a good shot at his first 100- game. However, don’t forget about LeGarrette Blount. Blount has never faced the Giants, he’s only 25 years old, and Martin wasn’t able to score on two tries on Tampa Bay’s red zone possession starting first and goal at the Carolina four yard line. That could easily mean goal line duties for Blount. Though Josh Freeman showed prowess in their West Coast passing game in the opener, don’t be shocked if Schiano’s squad takes a few early shots at Vincent Jackson deep downfield due to a Giants depleted secondary. Jackson should see increased numbers this week, but so should Dallas Clark and Preston Parker. The Giants face a tough Tampa secondary, which intercepted Cam Newton twice last week. Tom Coughlin will try to get more of Ahmad Bradshaw and yes, David Wilson into this week’s game, particularly when you consider Tampa was dead last in 2011 containing the run. Bradshaw’s a solid lock for over 125 all purpose yards and a score. Look for Eli Manning’s attempts to drop this week into the twenties, with Martellus Bennett continuing his strong start. Hakeem Nicks is likely to play with his foot injury, and Victor Cruz will make amends for last week.
GIANTS 24, BUCCANEERS 10
OAKLAND @ MIAMI
There’s only one question on the Oakland faithful’s mind:
who the heck is the long-snapper this week?
All kidding aside, the Raiders have won just one of their last five
matchups in Miami, and should LS Jon
Condo remain unable to play, the Raiders have a real concern on their
hands. Will they just abandon punting? This game matches two teams whose offenses
need a lot of work, because as of now, both the Dolphins and Raiders have
running backs leading their offenses in both rushing and receiving. Miami’s rushing defense isn’t bad, but they
couldn’t keep a semi-healthy Arian
Foster from sniffing the end zone twice. Darren
McFadden is just as talented as his aforementioned peer, and should be able
to amass decent rushing totals against Miami’s younger 4-3 defense. The return of starting center Stefen Wisniewski is good news on that
front. The bigger problem is Carson Palmer and the receivers group,
who failed to get anything going against the Chargers until the game wasn’t in
question. Denarius Moore is back on the practice field and should play,
giving Oakland a deep threat. Problem is
Palmer’s still not throwing with the accuracy and zip he used to. Miami is grooming-by-fire QB Ryan Tannehill, who for some reason was
charted by Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman to throw the ball 36 times
against a very opportunistic and speedy Houston defense. The results spoke for themselves, and even
though Reggie Bush averaged 4.9
yards for his 14 carries, Bush wasn't given more of an opportunity due to the
fact the wheels had come off by the second half. He'll be given ample opportunity to take this
game over and relieve pressure on Tannehill.
That in itself makes him a solid play this week for what I believe will
be a 150 yards of total offense. I've
made the case that Oakland's defense was overlooked as a huge positive in their
Week 1 loss to San Diego, snuffing the Chargers for the entire
turnover-fulfilled second half. If
Oakland can get out of its own way, Darren McFadden should lead them to
victory. None of the Dolphins receivers
merit much love in fantasy, but if you're desperate, Brian Hartline is the guy you're playing here, as he's the biggest
and most physical of the Dolphins depleted receiving group. For the Raiders, I'm not giving up on Darius Heyward-Bey just yet, but
disappearing in the opening week against a division rival has me thinking
there's someone better. Assuming he
plays, I like Denarius Moore for a deep touchdown against a Dolphins secondary
that gave up five plays of greater than 20 yards last Sunday.OAKLAND @ MIAMI
RAIDERS 17, DOLPHINS 13
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO
Can the Bills ever get a break? Can Chan Gailey actually become a head coach that wins? Is Boo Berry perhaps the most disgusting cereal ever created? These are all important questions, especially since the Bills are being haunted not by a little blue blob, but injuries of seasons past. Just one week into the season, wide receiver David Nelson has become this year's Donald Jones, and he’ll miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Running back Fred Jackson, has a sprained MCL ligament, which will keep him out at least four weeks. For the Chiefs, life actually improves with their best rusher LB Tamba Hali returning to the lineup after missing a game due to suspension. There is also hope that CB Brandon Flowers will return, firming up what was a loose secondary on opening Sunday. The defenses are crucially important in this game, as neither team brings a whole lot of offensive firepower. Though both teams were perfect in the red zone last week against good defenses, don't expect a high scoring affair. The Bills spent muchos dollares to bring in Mario Williams, who registered just one tackle last week, while Marcell Dareus will certainly have a lot on his mind after his brother was tragically murdered. He returned to the team, and I suspect his anger and anguish will join him in this game. The Bills will count on C. J. Spiller to add to his league-leading rushing tally, while using their spread offense to get Stevie Johnson and Donald Jones involved. The Chiefs will also look to keep ball control with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis, while using Dexter McCluster in a variety of packages to draw attention away from Dwayne Bowe. I have to think Jon Baldwin will show up in this contest, because the Chiefs are so limited, but Bowe makes an excellent play against Bills defensive backfield sporting no one taller than six feet. This one should be close, and if Fitzpatrick can limit the mistakes, I see the Bills pass rush making a difference this week.
BILLS 23, KANSAS CITY 17
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE
The Texans have taken the last three contests over the Jaguars by a combined score of 78-44 and won each game by no less than seven points. Maurice Jones-Drew has been a thorn in the Texans side, putting up no less than 13 fantasy points the last three times he's faced them. Jones-Drew was limited a bit last week, though that became an afterthought after Rashad Jennings left with a knee injury. With Jennings ruled out for this game he won't be limited Sunday. Arian Foster has been just as big of a pain to the Jaguars, registering no less than 14 fantasy points in each game; in two of the games he carried the ball over 30 times. And while the two of them fight it out on the turf, the true difference in the game will be which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. Matt Schaub missed the last meeting, where a combined effort from Matt Leinart and T.J. Yates pulled out a 20-13 victory. Schaub was turnover free in his first effort, completing 20-of-31 passes for 266 yards and a TD. Andre Johnson, whose health has kept him out of two of the last three contests, figured little last year without Schaub behind center. The question will be how Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert fares against DE J. J. Watt and the Houston defense. Laurent Robinson has truly arrived, as he led the team last week in total receptions. However, I don't like him or Cecil Shorts' chances against this secondary. Marcedes Lewis should be one of the receivers who could cause problems for Houston, especially in the red zone. While Gabbert is no doubt improved, Houston's top-notch defense forces a few turnovers at crucial times and takes this one to move to 2-0.
TEXANS 31, JAGUARS 17
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
The Browns last three trips to Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati have resulted in losses, albeit close ones, including last year’s 23-20 disappointment in November. This year’s Browns sport yet another rookie quarterback in Brandon Weeden, joined by first round draft pick RB Trent Richardson. Pat Shurmur gets a pass last week for having his rookie QB throw 36 passes in his first game as an NFL starter only because Richardson probably shouldn’t have been on the field after having a second knee surgery about four weeks ago. This week Richardson will be asked to carry more of the load. Anything less than 25 carries would surprise me, and if he gets more, it means Cleveland’s on the way to a victory. There’s no one worth starting of the Cleveland receivers, but keep an eye on newcomer Travis Benjamin, as he could become an impact slot receiver a la Roscoe Parrish, and may become fantasy worthy in deep leagues soon. The Cleveland defense rattled Michael Vick, forcing four interceptions and a fumble, but couldn’t hold on late after an ill-timed roughing the passer penalty on Ahtyba Rubin pushed the Eagles to midfield. Regardless, D’Qwell Jackson and company are for real, and the only worry they have is losing CB Joe Haden, who had seven tackles and an interception. Dimitri Patterson will have to replace Haden, and will face matchups against the Bengals A.J. Green, or Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins, the speedy second-year man out of Toledo, had eight receptions and 86 yards in Week 1. Quarterback Andy Dalton won’t have a ton of time to throw against this Cleveland front seven, but expect him to work his shots downfield, taking advantage of Haden’s absence. BenJarvus Green-Ellis did as much as he’s ever done to keep Cincy alive against Baltimore, with 91 rushing yards and a touchdown. However, I think Cleveland’s front seven may be better than Baltimore’s this year, and his lack of ability to make people miss worries me. He’s still a decent play here, but I’d be looking for Jermaine Gresham, and A. J. green to get their first touchdowns of the year. Cleveland managed just two third-down conversions Sunday and things won’t get easier here. Inexperience of the Browns offense will likely kill their chances in Cincinnati of stealing a “W".
BENGALS 28, BROWNS 17
BALTIMORE @ PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles defense appears to have put last year behind
them, and now look like that stout, tough unit of promise they were supposed to
be 2011. The problem has shifted to the
offense. The loss of LT Jason Peters, which gets more press
than it probably should, is having an impact.
King Dunlap, who is filling
in, struggled in game one with a holding penalty, not to mention the fact LeSean McCoy could get nothing going
rushing behind the left side of the line, losing a fumble once. Meanwhile, Michael Vick looked rusty and inconsistent against the Browns, and
now faces another aggressive secondary with WR Jeremy Maclin hobbled by a hip pointer. Maclin’s been injury prone,
but I suspect he’ll show up for a big game like this, and should make an
impact. The good news is that Vick is
mobile, and that can cause a pass rush like Baltimore’s trouble. Baltimore safety Ed Reed is struggling
with a hamstring injury, which provides a great opportunity for a speedy
receiver like DeSean Jackson to slip
in behind the coverage on a broken play for a deep score. However, after watching BenJarvus Green-Ellis
run up 91 yards on just 18 carries, Andy Reid’s group is likely to use LeSean McCoy all over the place this
weekend. This will be the first time the
Ravens have seen McCoy, and unlike Green-Ellis, McCoy can make people miss, has
strong acceleration and great hands.
Even against a tough Baltimore defense, you’re keeping McCoy active as
he averaged over five yards per carry at home last season, and over six yards
per attempt in the month of September. This weekend will be the Eagles first
true test defensively, as the Ravens were in sync at home in their opener. Unlike the first time he played them in 2008,
Ray Rice is now a seasoned veteran,
and although the Eagles kept Trent Richardson at bay, Rice, much like McCoy, is
a different story. Joe Flacco proved he has more weapons at his disposal than we
thought, with Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Anquan Boldin making up a strong trio, and TE Dennis Pitta showing soft hands and an imposing pres ence in the
middle of the field. Opportunities will
be limited for both offenses, making both QBs risky plays, but Vick’s tendency
to make bad plays puts Baltimore as a favorite, even on the road. Baltimore will make the entire day tough on McCoy
and Vick, and Flacco finally gets credit for stepping to the next level.The Browns last three trips to Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati have resulted in losses, albeit close ones, including last year’s 23-20 disappointment in November. This year’s Browns sport yet another rookie quarterback in Brandon Weeden, joined by first round draft pick RB Trent Richardson. Pat Shurmur gets a pass last week for having his rookie QB throw 36 passes in his first game as an NFL starter only because Richardson probably shouldn’t have been on the field after having a second knee surgery about four weeks ago. This week Richardson will be asked to carry more of the load. Anything less than 25 carries would surprise me, and if he gets more, it means Cleveland’s on the way to a victory. There’s no one worth starting of the Cleveland receivers, but keep an eye on newcomer Travis Benjamin, as he could become an impact slot receiver a la Roscoe Parrish, and may become fantasy worthy in deep leagues soon. The Cleveland defense rattled Michael Vick, forcing four interceptions and a fumble, but couldn’t hold on late after an ill-timed roughing the passer penalty on Ahtyba Rubin pushed the Eagles to midfield. Regardless, D’Qwell Jackson and company are for real, and the only worry they have is losing CB Joe Haden, who had seven tackles and an interception. Dimitri Patterson will have to replace Haden, and will face matchups against the Bengals A.J. Green, or Andrew Hawkins. Hawkins, the speedy second-year man out of Toledo, had eight receptions and 86 yards in Week 1. Quarterback Andy Dalton won’t have a ton of time to throw against this Cleveland front seven, but expect him to work his shots downfield, taking advantage of Haden’s absence. BenJarvus Green-Ellis did as much as he’s ever done to keep Cincy alive against Baltimore, with 91 rushing yards and a touchdown. However, I think Cleveland’s front seven may be better than Baltimore’s this year, and his lack of ability to make people miss worries me. He’s still a decent play here, but I’d be looking for Jermaine Gresham, and A. J. green to get their first touchdowns of the year. Cleveland managed just two third-down conversions Sunday and things won’t get easier here. Inexperience of the Browns offense will likely kill their chances in Cincinnati of stealing a “W".
BENGALS 28, BROWNS 17
BALTIMORE @ PHILADELPHIA
RAVENS 20, EAGLES 14
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Carolina welcomes a Saints team that gave up the most points and yards in the NFL last week. But before you condemn the Saints defense to worst in the league, here are some numbers you should consider. The Saints yielded just 3.5 yards per carry to the Redskins. The Redskins converted just four of 15 third down tries, and the Saints forced three fumbles but recovered none of them. Enter the Panthers, who according to ESPN.com downgraded RB Jonathan Stewart from probable earlier in the week to questionable. Without Stewart, Ron Rivera’s team attempted just 13 rushes, five of them from QB Cam Newton, for a meager 10 yards. Against the Saints, the way to victory is long sustained drives, keeping Drew Brees off the field; exactly what the Redskins did when they won time of possession by nearly 19 minutes. However, Carolina’s offensive will have to do a better job holding blocks to help sustain drives, as the Panthers registered six plays of negative yardage in their four first half possessions last week. Steve Smith is questionable with a knee issue, so keep an eye trained on the injury report before starting him. If he plays, he will stretch the same secondary that failed to contain Pierre Garcon. Watch for Brandon LaFell also to get a few shots downfield as the Saints had problems containing the sidelines, and LaFell is a large target that can go up and take passes away from defenders. The Saints meanwhile, are likely to use Mark Ingram as best they can, while mixing in a good dose of Pierre Thomas, their best all-around back on the team. They’ll also likely look to exploit rookie Josh Norman in Carolina’s secondary by working matchups to their favor. The last time these two teams met at Bank of America Stadium, the Saints escaped a three point winner. This time, it won’t be nearly as close.
SAINTS 35, PANTHERS 23
ARIZONA @ NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS 32, CARDINALS 17
MINNESOTA @ INDIANAPOLIS
For the second week in a row, the Vikings go up against a young up-and-comer at quarterback, while at the same time sporting their own. Andrew Luck’s debut didn’t quite go as planned against Chicago. Nevertheless, it’s clear Luck is pro ready, as was easily depicted in the fact Reggie Wayne garnered nine receptions for 135 yards. Wayne is the league leader at present for receiving and may be the steal of fantasy drafts. The Vikings won’t make things easy for Donald Brown, but the opportunities will be there. He’s worth 80 total yards and a possible touchdown plunge. A lot of this will again come down to Indy’s defense, a unit that was ranked 30th last year, but has started this year on a better note. Austin Collie is still fighting concussion symptoms and will miss Sunday. Bigger problem still are the injuries to Pat Angerer and now Dwight Freeney. The Colts gave up 41 points last week, though Luck turned the ball over four times which certainly didn’t help their cause. The Minnesota offensive line sports rookie Matt Khalil and former Colt left tackle Charlie Johnson on the left side of their line. The Vikings were unable to run that direction successfully all last Sunday, and now Khalil will have to take on sack specialist Robert Mathis to keep Ponder’s blind side clear. With Jerome Simpson suspended for taking in more hash than a 1969 VW van headed to Woodstock, Percy Harvin plays a multi-dimensional role of both wide receiver and flanker, often cycling into the backfield as a running back. Devin Aromashodu had a crucial grab in last week’s game but has always fallen just short of becoming something to believe in. Adrian Peterson should have a strong day, and could easily spoil Andrew Luck’s home opener. However, if Blaine Gabbert can torch the Minnesota secondary, so can Luck, who’ll use Coby Fleener to move the chains, and Wayne to deliver the fatal blow.
COLTS 20, VIKINGS 17
THE 4PM DOCKET
WASHINGTON @ ST. LOUIS
RAMS 16, REDSKINS 14
NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH
JETS 24, STEELERS 21
DALLAS @ SEAHAWKS
When it comes to Seattle, does anyone talk about anything but the weather? They do now, as rookie QB Russell Wilson has excited the Seattle fan base. Meanwhile, just nine days after helping to defeat their division rival, Tony Romo, arguably the most tormented quarterback in America finds Dallas opening contract talks for an extension. Historically, Seattle is 4-9 all time against Dallas, and has lost the last three contests, all in Texas. However, the last time Dallas won in Seattle it was 2004, and they have lost the last two meetings in the great northwest. Pete Caroll and Darrell Bevell fed Marshawn Lynch 20 carries last week, and it’s likely they attempt to do the same to keep the Dallas pass rush at bay. Eighteen of Lynch’s 20 attempts last week were over to the center or left side of the line. With NT Jay Ratliff, a hulking presence in the middle of their 3-4 defense, out for Dallas this week, expect more of the same. They Seahawks will run right at DeMarcus Ware in order to keep him busy. The good news for Seattle fans is Wilson is a mobile quarterback, one who can avoid the pass rush and take off if he needs. This game has a scare feeling to it, as Dallas has been known to lapse just when you think won’t (see their loss to Arizona Week 13 last year). Romo’s offense will spread out the Seahawks defense, attempting to take advantage of his size (Dez Bryant) and speed (Miles Austin) advantages. Jason Witten should be in better condition this week adding to Seattle’s woes. The Seahawks had no answer for Larry Fitzgerald down the stretch, so I anticipate this is a big day for Bryant, who is not listed on the Dallas injury report. The experienced Dallas defense may bend but won’t break against the rookie Wilson, and though they’ll make a few mistakes, the Cowboys will escape with a win. Romo will put up another 300 yards and a few touchdowns, but will also have his first turnover. I don’t expect easy going for DeMarco Murray, so don’t anticipate anything more than 75 yards or so.
COWBOYS 23, SEAHAWKS 16
SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers faithful will always applaud a win over the division rival Raider, a team they hold in as high regard as sensitivity training, but they have to be hoping that the disturbing statistics of going 1-for-5 in the red zone, not to mention adding another field goal after starting on the Raiders 41, is not a trend. The Chargers offense is again without Ryan Mathews, leaving Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley to carry the load. Against a Titans defense that yielded over 100 yards to Stevan Ridley, that should mean something, but Brown doesn’t have the kind of acceleration he used to after all his leg issues, and Brinkley doesn’t shake contact well. Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates will see plenty of targets, with Gates favored to star after seeing what New England’s tight ends did to the Titans. Chris Johnson will attempt to be better than Darren McFadden, who managed just 32 rushing yards in 15 attempts. Johnson looked terrible Week 1, and color me dubious that he’ll be better after a cross-country flight. Jake Locker definitely showed he’s got a cannon arm, but could do a little work on his targeting. The return of Kenny Britt can definitely tip the balance, especially when you consider the Chargers lost Quentin Jammer to thumb surgery. Britt is questionable with a knee injury but expected to play. Jared Cook should also play a factor, as he’s not-so-quietly become a known entity among fantasy players and was targeted six times last week. Ronnie Brown is worth a start this week, but I expect the game to be another one decided by quarterbacks, and I actually like Locker’s weapons better than Philip Rivers. Still, I’m going to stick with the veteran Rivers and the Chargers at home.
CHARGERS 26, TITANS 17
MONDAY NIGHT GAME
DENVER @ ATLANTA
For the second week in a row, the Broncos will feel the
white hot spotlight of a prime time matchup that comes with owning a
league-wide headline that is Peyton Manning’s
return to glory. The Denver defense,
ranked in the top ten in nearly every category right now, will have its hands
full against an Atlanta offense that looked primed to be a scoring machine in
2012. Julio Jones has officially arrived after his two touchdown
performance last week, and Tony Gonzalez
added the 96th touchdown of his illustrious career. Michael
Turner nearly split the rushing load with Jacquizz Rodgers last week, not the kind of numbers Turner owners
wanted to see. Expect more of the same
against Denver’s tough front seven led by second year stud LB Von Miller.
Matt Ryan had a brilliant season debut, providing three touchdowns
with his arm and one with his legs. In Denver,
fans were treated to a deep sigh of relief, as Peyton Manning played efficient football and survived a few tough
hits in leading Denver over the Steelers.
While Manning doesn’t have the zip on the ball he once had, he is still
the league’s best field general, the benefactor of which will be Demaryius Thomas, assuming he stays
healthy, and Jacob Tamme. Thomas is
nursing a shoulder injury but is probable for Monday night. Besides his early fumble, Willis McGahee looked like he’s ready for
solid season as an RB2, but he won’t add any value to PPR rosters. He’ll get his shots against Atlanta, which
yielded over 100 total rushing yards to Kansas City. This should be a high scoring affair, but I
don’t yet trust that Manning is 100%, nor has the weaponry Ryan does. Roddy
White should show up in this game even more in this game, as Atlanta’s size
advantage against the Denver secondary is substantial. White tallies his first score, Turner adds nearly
20 carries and 65 yards, and Gonzo finds pay dirt again.ATLANTA 31, DENVER 27
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