IS IT TIME FOR TIM TEBOW?

Kyle Orton begins the season with a ranking of 27th in QB rating. 

Time for Tebow?

TEE-BOW! TEE-BOW!

The chants rang out among the Sports Authority Stadium crowd Sunday night as the Broncos, down three points to the Oakland Raiders, began mounting a comeback on a wet, soggy night.  First and ten at the Oakland 24-yard line, Kyle Orton makes a strong play fake to Knowshon Moreno and looks across the line to see Tight End Daniel Fells breaking open across the center of the field.  Orton goes to throw and.....the ball falls out of his hands.  Almost as if in slow motion, Orton, already fading toward his blind side, attempts to reverse his course and fall against his weight for the ball.  He's too late, as Oakland's Lamarr Houston finds the football first.  Game-changing turnover, Denver never recovers and loses to Oakland.

Since the first Sunday ended, and maybe even before, the Denver faithful have been firing away at Orton.

Is it time for Tim Tebow? 

No.  Absolutely not.

Let's examine Kyle Orton's body of work as a quarterback in the NFL before we toss him out the window for a guy who has started all of three NFL games.

This isn't baseball, so wins isn't a category most people examine when looking at QB play.  However, if the quarterback is going to be assessed with full blame for a team's loss, then we should consider lauding the QB with the accolades when a team wins.

In Chicago, Kyle Orton was 21-12, completed 55% of his passes, threw for 30 TDs vs. 27 INTs. and averaged 211 yards per game throwing, and a QB rating of 71.  Not exactly great numbers, but there was no doubt that he made the team stronger than Rex Grossman did at the time.  Yet, Kyle Orton was run out of Chicago for Jay Cutler.

Transition to Denver, where Orton has posted an 11-17 record, while improving on all of his numbers, 277 yards per game, 42 TDs vs. 22 INTs, a 60% completion rate, and average of an 87 rating.  So why has the number of wins declined?  Is that based on Orton's play?

In 2008, Jay Cutler's Denver offense was ranked third in passing and second overall in yards in the final year of Mike Shanahan's tenure.  They ranked 16th in offensive points scored, but 30th in defense.

In 2009, Kyle Orton's first year in Denver as well as Josh McDaniels', the offense was the 13th rated passing offense in terms of yards.  They were 20th overall in points.  The defense improved to seventh overall in yards and 12th in points.  For the second straight year they finished 8-8.

In 2010, the Broncos passing attack ranked seventh in yards, 19th overall in points while their defense fell to 32nd overall, worst in the league.
In the same three years, Denver's rushing offense declined from 12th in yards in '08, to 18th in '09 to 26th in 2010.

The numbers seem to support that while Kyle Orton is not the kind of gunslinger Jay Cutler is, but he's improved as a quarterback overall, while dealing with a declining running game and a faltering defense.  Not only that, but the team lost Brandon Marshall, by far its best receiver during this time, and replaced him with the once afterthought Brandon Lloyd.  With Orton under center, Lloyd led all NFL receivers in yards in 2011. 

Let's repeat that.  He led ALL NFL RECEIVERS in yardage last year: more than Roddy White, more than Greg Jennings, more than Reggie Wayne.  And those guys had the likes of Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning throwing the rock to them.

With all of this going on, the Denver faithful have promptly taken the stance that Kyle Orton is the reason the Broncos continue to play average to bad football, and the solution to their woes comes in the form of the kindly, hard-working Tim Tebow.  Is the fan base actually so sure of Tebow bringing redemption that they're willing to spit in the face of all the training camp preparations, all the scouting reports and their new coach John Fox to get what might be a more entertaining, though vastly unprepared Tim Tebow under center? 

Tim Tebow deserves a chance to earn his shot at the starting job, but only once he can genuinely lead this team as a quarterback.  By all accounts, he has the leadership skills but he's just not there yet in football skills, and it would behoove the Denver fans to realize this, support his growth, and stand behind the one guy who is giving it his all for them now. 

And that quarterback is Kyle Orton.  He's earned it.

THE TUESDAY AFTER THE MONEY - Review of the late Sunday and Monday night games

A review of the late Sunday game and Monday night double-header.

DALLAS/NY JETS
If Tony Romo is the reason Dallas lost the game on Sunday night, then it is true that the standards for good QB play are getting out of hand.  Romo threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns and an average of 9.5 per attempt.  He also committed two huge turnovers, no doubt.  However, no one of the Dallas faithful seems to recall the ridiculous blocked punt which altered the destiny of the entire game.  Felix Jones confirms that the days of the committee in Dallas are likely over, as he receives 17 of the 26 rushes on the night.  However, the explosive Felix Jones of the past was a lot more exciting than 2.6 yards per carry average.  At least when it came to the red zone, Jones wasn’t abandoned for a more rested or convenient option.  He scored on a one yard plunge.  However, if you’re an investor in Jets RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson’s retirement from relevance was given far too much pre-season hype.  Tomlinson led all Jets receivers with seven catches on seven targets for 73 yards.  He yielded carries to Greene two-to-one, but Greene’s 2.6 yards per carry average is much more damaging in his situation than in his counterpart Jones’.  Mark Sanchez played well for most of the game, but just as you might want to blame Romo for Dallas’ demise, don’t vindicate Sanchez by lauding him with the credit.  Besides the first drive of the fourth quarter, Sanchez fumbled, and was sacked twice, effectively making the Jets offense all but useless.  Fantasy wise, his numbers were good enough to make him a QB1 of older times, but he’ll remain at second rate QB because of the system he’s in.  Don’t expect so many of these 300+ passing yard days.  Plaxico Burress played a clutch role in the passing game at the most important time, making him a steal as a late round draft pick.  I expect he’ll end up with somewhere near 60 catches and 650 yards.   

NEW ENGLAND/MIAMI

Tom Brady tossed his first interception in over 350 attempts, and that was the only blemish on another dominating performance.  Brady’s 517 yards and four touchdowns were the best for the week.  Wes Welker has mounted huge numbers against the Dolphins before.  In 2009 he gained the most receiving yardage of his career gaining 167 yards on 10 catches.  However, Sunday he added two scores to his 160 receiving yards, the best fantasy numbers of his career.  If Welker’s performance signaled more of the same, Chad Ochocinco’s big debut continued that theme, as he recorded just one reception. Not much change by addition to the New England offense.  I believe he’ll still play a role when needed, but as is the norm in New England, no one part is given more importance than another except for Tom Brady.  The tight end duo of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski continued to show both are valuable as fantasy receivers as they each delivered a touchdown and six-plus catches each, and the running game provided just enough variety with Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to keep the Fins defense on its heels.  Meanwhile, Brady’s ridiculous evening overshadowed a career night for Chad Henne as well.  Brandon Marshall caught a 139 of Henne’s 419 yards passing, and Brian Hartline was targeted seven times, hauling in four with one TD.  Davone Bess also added five receptions for 92 yards.  Reggie Bush showed again how great he can be catching balls out of the backfield while also showing he’s not meant to be a first string runner who’s expected to haul the rushing load.   Bush added just a meager 38 yards on 11 attempts.  One note, the 900+ yards passing from both QBs was an NFL record.

OAKLAND/DENVER

Who says a kicker can’t have fantasy impact?   Sebastian Janikowski kicked a 63 yard field goal, tying the record for the longest field goal from scrimmage ever (he put up 13 fantasy points).  Not surprisingly, two of them have been converted in the thin Denver air of Mile High Stadium.  There was a recent article by Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN talking about consistency ratings.  His methodology rated the players against the league averages, and basically his numbers did not paint Janikowski in a favorable light.  Well, the reason to own Janikowski often comes down to days like today, where the possibility of having a kicker with his range might make the difference between a team attempting a five-point FG, or throwing a Hail Mary.  I’ll stick with big legs any day in the kicking game.  Darren McFadden put on another rushing display against the Broncos and showed why he was my top choice as a running back this year.  I expect him to finish in the Top Five when all is said and done.  Of note was the performance of Darius Heyward-Bey,who delivered four catches on seven targets for 44 yards.  More importantly was the amount of times in clutch third down situations that Jason Campbell looked for Heyward-Bey.  He’s still not going to leapfrog into a category of elite receivers, but he may indeed pan out for Oakland and make a fine WR3 on your team.  Knowshon Moreno was again a no-show, and he limped off the field late after becoming an integral part of the passing game.  You have to feel for Kyle Orton, who while hearing the echo of “TEE-BOW” being chanted by the clueless Denver faithful, watched his receivers drop at least five passes in crucial situations.  For some reason, that inspires people in Denver to become more religious, because just like prayers, they have faith without any proof that Tim Tebow will deliver them from evil.  Orton’s only big mistake was on a terrific play call which left Daniel Fells crossing the middle of the field wide open, but as Orton went to cock the football, the wet pigskin fell from his hands and was recovered by Oakland.  The Denver defense should improve under John Fox, and Oakland’s defense might be the best in the division.

THE MONDAY MORNING AFTER

Do you know this man?  It's Ben Tate, and you better.

COLTS/TEXANS

The Colts may be in trouble, and it’s not necessarily just Kerry Collins that they need to worry about.  Certainly a 16/31/197/1/0 performance isn’t awe-inspiring but the fact that Houston averaged 4.1 yards per carry, and nine yards per pass is not something that bodes well for Indy.  Though pass defenses have been riddled for more yardage than ever in the last few years, no defense of the past decade has allowed that many yards-per-attempt, the worst being the 2008 Lions secondary which conceded 8.8 YPA.  At this point Reggie Wayne’s value appears pretty safe, but all bets are off for just about anyone else Indianapolis, including Dallas Clark.  Assuming Collins can improve to his career number of a 56% completion rate, assuming three more completions per game, there’s not a lot of chaff to go around, particularly if Austin Collie’s health improves.  Ben Tate proved he’s the real deal, so Arian Foster might reconsider tweeting MRI results that are anything but positive.  If Derrick Ward was considered Foster’s backup going into this Sunday, one of my routinely late round picks Tate just took the job from him.  The carries breakdown was 22/12 in Tate’s favor, and he delivered nearly five yards per carry.


PITTSBURGH/BALTIMORE
It’s one game, but it’s clear that Bryant McKinnie may have been one of the most crucial off-season acquisitions for the Baltimore Ravens.  Line play is crucial in any game, but particularly in the AFC North, the ground and pound division.  McKinnie simply man-handled James Harrison, who didn’t show up until late in the fourth quarter with his first QB hit.  Harrison finished with nine tackles and a knee bruise, but put absolutely no pressure on the QB.  The Steelers have ignored their lines too long, and I’m not sure what Peter King saw that made him so gaga about Aaron Smith this year.  The underrated Smith had all of one tackle and seemed to make no difference on a front three that was constantly pushed around.  Larry Foote looked overmatched and undersized every time he found himself in a position to make a tackle.  Both Harrison and Lamar Woodley signed major contracts prior to the season totaling a possible $111.5 million, and the Steelers just locked up Troy Polamalu for over $30 million; costly contracts for a defense that just got pushed around by their key AFC North rival.  Polamalu was actually outrun by TE Ed Dickson on post route for a TD.  Now, I’m not one to say panic after one week, as no team wants to be playing their best football right now, but there’s no doubt in my mind the Steelers need the two-a-days reinstated.  This was a team simply not as ready as the Ravens.  Lastly, Ben Roethlisberger proves he’s still not a great fantasy quarterback to own, though no one should expect five turnovers regularly.  Today, he was sloppy and inefficient, as was the Steelers play-calling.  Roethlisberger may like the offense that made him have one of the highest YPA averages in the league at over eight yards per, but it’s clear  Pittsburgh doesn’t yet have a competent enough possession receiver to replace the quickly aging Hines Ward.  While Mike Wallace is going to be the leading receiver on this team, he’s a big play threat, not chain-mover.  Someone is going to have to step up, and based on Antonio Brown’s nine targets, you’d think it’d be him.  But only two catches makes me believe if Sanders can heal that foot he’ll become Ward’s heir apparent for possession reasons.  For the Ravens, Lee Evans is still Lee Evans.  He’ll be just as useless here as he was in Buffalo.


DETROIT/TAMPA BAY
Matthew Stafford is the real deal.  He may be the best value QB for his draft position this year if he can continue this pace.  Problem is, he’s a health nightmare.  By the third quarter Stafford had twisted his own knee/ankle trying to avoid a sack and was hobbled the rest of the game.  Health aside, he’s got the ability to see the field well, can put mustard on the ball or put touch on it, and has enough support from his line to hold a pretty tough Tampa Bay defense from registering a single sack.  Jahvid Best showed he may be more of a strong PPR play, as 3.4 yards per carry does not inspire, though it’s hardly as disappointing as LeGarrette Blount’s five carries for 15 yards. Tampa Bay managed only 16 carries, and they were in the lead until late in the second quarter.  The Buccaneers attempted just six second half carries, with only one by Blount.  Not sure what Raheem Morris’ game plan was going into this game, but my gut feeling is Josh Freeman is not a QB you make the decisive player in any game.  He’s a solid game manager who can make some plays with his athletic ability, but against a Detroit unit that yielded 4.5 yards per carry, making them ninth worst in the league last year, you have to believe 16 carries was not the way to go, even with Detroit’s secondary issues.

PHILADELPHIA/ST. LOUIS
Steven Jackson is a great runner….when he can actually run.  After breaking a 47-yard TD charge in the first quarter, Jackson wasn’t heard from again, having strained his quad.  Who knows how long this puts him on the bench, but Cadillac Williams sure showed he’s ready to fill in if necessary.  You have to give Jackson credit for always 100 percent rushing effort, but you almost wish he’d take a little bit off the gas to spare his health.  He’s a guy I’ll never invest a high draft pick in for the injury factor alone.  DeSean Jackson is still as dangerous as ever, and also as annoying as ever.  Because of his natural athletic ability, he’ll always make his share of big plays, but he also will drop his share as well, as he did today.  Sam Bradford handled the Philadelphia pressure well all things considered.  He has very little help outside, leaving him to dump off short completions to the likes of Williams.  Williams was targeted 10 times before Bradford left after striking a finger on a helmet, which makes PPR owners salivate at the idea of Jackson’s return.  At least Bradford’s X-rays were negative.  Amendola left with what looked like a broken arm based on the way he was holding his wrist, but there’s been no report on him as of this writing.  He’s the only sure-handed guy we’ve seen on this team and losing him would be a bigger loss than people might think.  Don’t expect LeSean McCoy to see so many Mack-Truck-sized holes in the future like he did today.  Philly travels to Atlanta for Michael Vick’s homecoming week and then hosts the Giants in Week 3.  As for Vick, well, you aren’t surprised are you? 

CAROLINA/ARIZONA
Pick up Cam Newton right away.  I drafted him in one league on a flier and can’t believe how fortunate I am.  Arizona might not have the best secondary in the world, but Newton’s second touchdown pass to Steve Smith was the stuff that shows his talent.  If you’ve got De’Angelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart, you have to welcome Newton’s ability to throw the ball downfield.  However, it might mean less carries between the two of them.  It meant only 19 attempts Sunday, 12 of which fell to Williams.  With Newton showing what he did, Brandon LaFell becomes a relevant WR2, and should be considered in deeper leagues.  Kevin Kolb was incredibly efficient, and not just to Larry Fitzgerald, who saw seven balls thrown his way.  While the press foam at Cam Newton’s debut, Early Doucet’s three receptions for 103 yards and a score should open some eyes.  I wouldn’t anoint Doucet to WR2 status yet, but he’s a guy to put on watch status.  He was a supposed to add some receiver depth to Arizona after he was taken in the third round in 2008.  It was a slow learning curve until the 2009 post-season where he grabbed 14 balls in two games and scored twice.  It seemed to be an harbinger of good things to come, but 2010 saw injuries mount and after sport hernia surgery, he was lost for the year with a hip injury in December.  Keep an eye on the targets as Andre Roberts is still the starter opposite Fitzgerald for now.  Beanie Wells managed 90 yards and a touchdown and caught all four passes thrown to him meaning Ryan Williams’ injury may be the thing that keeps Wells from being declared a bust after all.

ATLANTA/CHICAGO        

Bet you that Matt Ryan wishes he was in the end zone when he put the ball to the ground to regain his balance and instead lost it to the Bears for a defensive score.  The same play haunted Calvin Johnson and a few others last year after a reception in the end zone and the refs simply ruled those incomplete.  No such luck for Ryan.  For all the Bears defense did right on Sunday, they have to be disturbed by the fact it took Michael Turner just 10 carries to reach 100 yards.  The difference was that the Falcons had no ability to finish drives, finishing 0-for-2 in the red zone.  Again, with the rushing talent Atlanta has, why Matt Ryan is attempting nearly 50 passes is beyond me?  Julio Jones’ five receptions on six targets for 71 yards solidifies him as an improvement over Michael Jenkins, but few expected Tony Gonzalez to lead all receivers with 72 yards.   Matt Forte continues to be a PPR beast, though as a Bears fan I’d be concerned at the loss of Roy Williams to injury when Forte leads all receivers.  The numbers don’t support such a lopsided outcome, but a few crucial Falcons’ turnovers at key times really made the difference here.

SEATTLE/SAN FRANCISCO
The battle of the quarterback-less teams was just that, whereas Ted Ginn, Jr. starred by returning both a kickoff and punt for a score.  Special teams always are a difference maker in the NFL, whether it’s simply the field position difference or points, but you can bet that any team that gets two touchdowns from its Special Teams units is not going to lose many ball games.  However, if neither Alex Smith or Tarvaris Jackson improves as true field threats, I fear neither team’s running game with be worth much going forward.  Frank Gore managed 59 yards or 2.9 per carry, while his counter-part Marshawn Lynch gained 33 yards on 13 carries.  Jackson threw the ball better than Smith, who passed for a meager 124 yards on 15-of-20 completions.  But Jackson’s three turnovers are just too many for a pro-level quarterback to heap on his defense, even if they are facing an anemic 49ers’ offense.


MINNESOTA/SAN DIEGO
Sadly, it’s time to say it like it is for Donovan McNabb.  It’s time to join Brett Favre in retirement.  While McNabb still has good mobility for his 34 years, he posted a 7-for-15 line, and a pathetic 2.6 per attempt average.  Losing Sidney Rice leaves the young and potent Percy Harvin to face double-teams, all the while having to return kicks for the team as well.  There’s just not enough athletes on this team in the receiving game to assist the running game.  The Vikings defense will keep the team in a lot of games, as well as Adrian Peterson’s legs.  But it won’t be long until either Christian Ponder or Joe Webb will find themselves using playing time to develop for next year.  In the meantime, Mike Tolbert has put Ryan Mathews owners on watch.  Mathews and Tolbert split carries, with Mathews doing a better job on the ground.  However, whereas it was expected Mathews would catch more balls out of the backfield, Philip Rivers relied on the Tolbert for nine receptions, 58 yards and two scores through the air.  San Diego still has what appears to be a Special Teams nightmare on their hands, but they’ve got too many offensive weapons to be kept in check for four quarters.

CINCINNATI/CLEVELAND

Bruce Gradkowski seems to be the modern day Frank Reich, salvaging another victory with a late touchdown pass to a very open A.J. Green.  However, he’s proven over time he’s not really meant to be a starting quarterback.  Andy Dalton didn’t look good, but he didn’t look putrid either. On the other hand, perhaps the loss of Eric Steinbach to the Browns’ offensive line is a bigger deal than was expected.  Peyton Hillis found limited running room, managing just 57 yards on 17 carries, though he added six receptions for 80 yards.  I expect we’ll be seeing more of Montario Hardesty soon if health allows.  Hillis is a tough physical runner a la the mold of old fullback Mike Alstott, but he just doesn’t have the big play speed to strike a lot of fear into defensive coordinators.   Cedric Benson shows that he still runs well against the Brownies.  In the seven games against Cleveland since Benson joined the Bengals, he’s played in five, managed 576 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 127 carries.  He’s in your starting lineup when facing Cleveland, period.  Colt McCoy’s numbers wreak of inexperience – 19/40/213/2/1.  The Browns couldn’t do much through the air or on the ground, and it just goes to show that even if you have a stud, Pro Bowl left tackle by the name of Joe Thomas, the loss of your blocking partner can cause some major issues in the interior of your line.

BUFFALO/KANSAS CITY

I’ll say it right now; Ryan Fitzpatrick is worth starting as a fantasy QB in most situations as long as Chan Gailey is running the offense.  The journeyman quarterback was originally on my list of Top Five QBs for the week, but I admit I lacked the courage to stick with that pick.  While he managed just 208 yards, he tossed 4 TDs, yielding an 8.3 YPA average. Roscoe Parrish owners will be disappointed at the arrival of TE Scott Chandler, who caught all five of his passes, two of them for touchdowns.  Maybe Matt Cassel has a bruised rib but that doesn’t explain Jamaal Charles’ lack of explosiveness Sunday, though he still managed 5.6 yards per carry for his 10 touches.  However, his five catches yielded just 9 yards, something that’s going to have to change if this team is to make any noise in the AFC West.

TENNESSEE/JACKSONVILLE
Does Jack Del Rio know something we all don’t about Luke McCown?  Well, McCown was efficient if not boring throwing for 175 yards on 17-for-24 throwing; his 7.3 YPA was just dangerous enough to allow Maurice Jones-Drew to garner 97 yards and a score rushing, though Jones-Drew didn’t catch a single pass.  Not only that, he wasn’t targeted once.  One has to wonder if MJD’s missing two games last year has Del Rio thinking he’d like to ride the little horse a bit less this year.  However, the bigger question mark from this game is Chris Johnson, who after holding out for a big contract, appeared like he was in off-season shape after carrying for 24 yards on nine carries.  Whether this was an offensive line issue or just a bad first game only time will tell, but the Titans, already expected to be a weaker team this year as they await Jake Locker’s arrival, certainly deserved better from veteran Matt Hasselbeck than his final toss for an interception that was nowhere close to Kenny Britt.   Off-season acquisition Barrett Ruud had a phenomenal game with 14 tackles. 

THE NEVER-WED SINGLE MOTHER -

We now have about two decades of good social science research that comes to the conclusion that, as a general matter, children do better in low-conflict, loving, two-parent families - Bill Albert, a spokesman for the National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy.


Births to unmarried women are at higher risk for poorer birth outcome. They are more likely to be low birth weight, be preterm and die in infancy. Other research has shown that children are better off being raised in two-parent families." - Stephanie J. Ventura, director of the Reproductive Statistics Branch at the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

(Both quotes came from a 2009 report in the Health section of U.S. New & World Report.)

*******

Not so long ago, I heard several friends mention that though they had never found "the one" their age had reached a point where they were unlikely to bear children in wedlock and they wanted a child. They were understandably in the midst of a true conundrum. I'm quite certain none of the women I knew who were considering this path wanted to be standing at this precipice of life-altering decisions. A few had already consulted OBGYN's in an effort to predict how much time they might have left to undertake the task at hand (whether they had sufficient egg supply, were in good enough shape, what the risks were, using fertility drugs, etc.).

Child-bearing doesn't fall under any realm of responsibility we men can truly understand. We join the foray as a bystander, holding our wife's hand along the way, and waiting for the blessed day when junior arrives. Studies suggest that the experience of pregnancy bond the mother and child in a natural way that father's can't experience. We are on the outside somewhat, looking in. So naturally, I wanted to support my friends' desires to experience motherhood. However, deep down, I couldn't help but be concerned as to how this kind of motherhood would work, particularly if things don't go according to plan (i.e. the birth of a healthy child).

To me, a key part of dating, and the trauma that comes from finding someone, dating them, and then moving on to someone you believe fits you better, is the navigation of differences. Much different than the way you navigate through people's personalities in the workplace, the differences you need to manage during dating and subsequent relationships are much more perverse and much more complicated. Human beings are so complex that the layers within each of our own personalities allow us to mask and block things we don't want seen in professional cases, that often come shining through in personal ones. We might go to work with a smile on our face, masking the fact that earlier in the day we found out one of our siblings fell ill. For many of us, the professional and personal are easily separated when it comes to displays of emotion, frustration or both.

In personal relationships, we're not so level-headed. Often we mask our vulnerabilities, preventing our partner of choice at the moment from getting to a deeper level that we aren't prepared to handle. The deeper a relationship goes, the more intense these feelings seem to become, and if at any time during the peeling back of the layers we feel overexposed, we often move into a defensive mode, and sometimes even go on the attack. Eventually, we all hope to find someone with whom we wish to share the deepest levels of intimacy, and that need to protect ourselves, though always present, fades somewhat in the presence of this person. Through time, it is possible we have learned to make better decisions as to whom we choose to be with and why. We no longer have the hang-ups and insecurities that pressured us as strongly as they did when we were younger. And most importantly, we have started learning how to communicate in a more intimate setting that prevents the old 'explosive' breakups that used to happen. We have learned to point the finger in our own direction perhaps, and not always at the other person, a key element in relationship problem solving.

So naturally, the question I began to pose was, is the matter of not being married one of simply not finding the right person, simply one's choice, meaning it is not their preferred way of life, or is it that these people are simply so independent in their choices and ways that they have never thought to consider that the reason they are single is of their own doing? And thus, if a woman moves along into single parenthood without having mastered that skill, is it a good idea, because there's no more intimate a setting than that of a parent and child. This forum of communication is of the utmost importance, is it not? It has to be among the most structured yet open and intimate in terms of idea exchange of any relationship we could possibly experience, the results of which cannot be understated.

Supposing a person has not learned how to communicate intimately with another human being, and suppose also that never in their world has it ever dawned on them that they had anything to do with the outcomes of their dating situations i.e., it was always that the other person was at fault. Can this person bring the kind of objectivity necessary to help a child wade and eventually swim through all the different waters of life they'll face?

This doesn't question the competency of women in any way. In fact, each of the people I learned was considering this option were wonderful people who would likely make incredible mothers. I don't envy their choice, nor their situation.

Yet, knowing the uphill battle married or co-habitating parents face, particularly parents of older ages, it behooves all of these women to ask themselves the question as to 'why motherhood' to make sure this isn't some sort of cure-all for the missing spouse that was never found. What happens if the fertility drugs cause a common side occurrence – twins? What about an autistic child? The outcomes and risks are not so simple when women decide to have children after 35, and more so after 40.

I wish each and every one of them luck. I don't know what the answer would be for me if I was in their shoes. I just hope they're willing to heavily consider and even put on their child's shoes before taking that very last step.

EMPLOYMENT GRINDS TO HALT AND OTHER TIDBITS

The above headline topped the internet news today after the jobs report did not look so good. I'm not quite sure how employment grinds to a halt, like we're all on one big bus ride called JOBS and this week someone slammed on the break. If employment ground to a halt, shouldn't we all just stop working? I mean, it certainly doesn't feel like anything halted at my place of employment; more like someone stepped on the accelerator and then if that wasn't bad enough, another guy came along and stepped on his foot while on the accelerator! Nothing halting here. In fact, I think we could use a little halt. Why don't we all pause and sing Kumbaya for a moment, take a look around, look outside?

We've gotten so used to our GNP being so ridiculously high, and we've made all the other countries jealous….and made them mad too. How would you like to be a country that has its entire GNP compared to one of our states. You've heard that before right. Oh, Jamaica doesn't even have the Gross National Product of the State of New York. In fact, New York's GNP is 7 Jamaicas! How do you think Jamaica feels about that huh?

I've been to Jamaica, and all I can really say about that is --- it's warm. Jamaica's kind of scary, unless you want to deal or smoke pot…. then let me tell you, you've found heaven on earth. You know in Jamaica they call a speed bump a Sleeping Policeman? I wonder what the hell they call a real sleeping policeman because you can walk the streets of Jamaica dressed as a joint on fire and the only policeman that comes by will be one that wants to smoke you.

 
There's a big difference between public and private beaches in Jamaica and the U.S. You think private beach in America, you're thinking a small beautiful inlet that goes right up to a mansion where they have cocktails served and exclusive hot guests and great food. Private beach in Jamaica, you're hopeful for sand.

Because the public beaches in Jamaica are empty. You'll see a few kids or natives running around, but they're being patrolled by dreadlocked salesmen all selling the same product, and they just follow you around asking you repeatedly if "you want some ganja man?" And they won't go away. You think telemarketers are bad, you can hang up on them. In Jamaica the minute you turn away one sales guy with his dreads hanging all over another one turns up who looks just like him with the same question!

And you know how you like to get little souvenirs when you go on vacation. Everyone I've ever dated wants to bring back something, as if the pictures aren't enough. They want a magnet, or a coffee mug, or some other thing that like fives years from now you'll be like cleaning out the kitchen and you'll be like, "do you want this?" and they're "No, I don't even remember when I got that."

Where we stayed in Montego Bay,.... I'll never go to again, but below our hotel on the hill was a shopping mall....otherwise known as twelve green wooden huts hocking the exact same merchandise.  And the women who ran these shops all know each other, and their job is to lowball their friends out of a sale, who then return the favor on someone else.  They must be a collective.  Seriously, everything was the same -- occasionally they had a t-shirt with a slightly different design on it.  In America we call that The Gap.

And we think employment has ground to a halt here... employment has hardly found an engine there.

There was a 7.1 quake reported up near Alaska this morning, but it was later reduced to 6.8.  How is it we spend all this money on geological surveying equipment, we have this university called Cal Tech, the supposed pre-eminent assessor of earthquakes, and never once is the first reported Richter scale value correct.  It always gets changed later.  So let's learn something, OK.  Why don't we say this....the first number you get,...throw it out.  It ain't right.  It's too high, always.  No other profession does this happen as often.  I mean can you imagine your doctor  --- "You have terminal stage 4 pancreatic cancer."   A hour later.... "I mean you've got a rib bruise."  What the F?  Let's spend a little extra cash so they can learn not to waste time reporting the first measurement for crying out loud.

That's all I have for today.....

NATIONAL FOOTBALL POST - EXPERTS DRAFT ROUNDS 9-16

I think most of us would agree in the fantasy football world that championships are often made or lost in the late rounds of a draft.  If you took a flier on Michael Vick in your draft last year, you probably won your league.  Same thing occurred if you took chanced Kurt Warner in 2008.  I think most would also agree that these are the most difficult rounds to gage.  Is it time to take that rookie receiver for a chance he'll turn in Randy Moss?  Do I handcuff my own running back with his backup or simply take another RB on a poor team.  Do I want a second TE, and is it necessary?  Where do I take a defense?

These questions run through every drafter's mind as he/she moves into the later rounds, and the right answer generally gets revealed only in hindsight.  Last year, the commissioner of one league I was in felt my team was destined for the playoffs right after the draft.  We got slaughtered.  Another time this same commissioner felt I had set myself up poorly for the post season.  I was the highest scoring team in the league.  You get my point.

Let's move on to Rounds 9-16. Again, I have capitalized my picks for easy skimming.



Heading into Round 9 I was not disappointed how things had gone.  I had hoped Austin Collie might go another round later.  He's been completely discounted this year due to his concussion problems last year, but people forget he was the league's leading receiver after seven weeks.  He has Manning's trust, and I truly believe if he remains healthy he'll be in the top twenty this year.

Since we get extra points on defense for limiting yards allowed and forcing fumbles, I figured an elite defense might add some help here. So I picked the PITTSBURGH STEELERS defense.  While the Steelers secondary is still an issue, most of last season Troy Polomalu was out, and Ryan Clark battled some injuries too.  They also get DE Aaron Smith back, who tore a muscle in his arm and was gone for all of last season.  Even with those problems they allowed the least rushing yardage of any defense, forced 24 fumbles and posted 48 sacks.   I expect the secondary to improve a bit this year.  A lot of people like Philadelphia to be dominant this year.  I suspect they'll be very good, but I hate that division.  It's a passing division, and high scoring one.  The AFC North is still mostly played on the ground and pound most finesse teams into the ground.  So I stuck to my homer nature and picked my Steelers.

I found my third receiver in MIKE WILLIAMS of Seattle.  Yes, I'm scared to death of Tarvaris Jackson throwing the rock.  But Williams' size is the difference maker here, and my hope is he didn't lose the edge to prove himself that he had last year.  He was definitely the best of what was left of the starting receivers.  He's a WR1 for Seattle, but probably will give me WR3 numbers.  Still, as a third receiver, I'll take it.

Round 11 I decided it was time for my backup QB.  In hindsight, I wish I had chosen him in Round 10.  Josh Freeman and Sam Bradford evaporated this round, so I took a flier on KEVIN KOLB.  Probably risky considering Stafford's ill health and Kolb's shakiness last year.  At least he has Larry Fitzgerald.  You could throw the ball into the upper deck of the stands and Fitzgerald would bring it down.  And if he turns out to be as good as some thought he was going to be in Philly, perhaps the Cardinal's offense flies this year.

In Round 12, I decided it was time for a little more risk.  Since I had a pretty strong receivers group, and I wasn't high on taking perennial disappointment Robert Meachem, or anyone in St. Louis since it's hard to know who Bradford will truly rely on, I went for BRANDON TATE of New England.  Look, Welker is solid, we know this.  But the recent press on the restructuring of Chad Ochocinco's deal so New England could release him with little penalty didn't seem like a good thing no matter how you slice it.  Chad should be huge this year, but it's possible he won't work well in a spread offense, and Brandon Tate (assuming he returns from his mysterious illness) has true down-field speed for the Pats.  Add that to the best QB in the game, and this felt like a strong flier to me.  I probably could have gotten him in any of the last four rounds, but knowing these guys, there's a chance someone would have beaten me to it.  That's the paranoia that gets into your brain knowing you're playing against solid competition.

I was hoping C.J. Spiller would survive the 13th and fall into my lap, but Chris Wessling struck again and took him two picks earlier.  I also had considered Jared Cook, who Brandon Funston grabbed here.  Even with Dallas Clark's injury being his wrist last year, I felt I should back him up, and took DUSTIN KELLER here.  This may possibly be my weakest choice in the draft. Sanchez may use him in the red zone but the Jets have loaded his plate with receiver possibilities, so much so Jerricho Cotchery left for Pittsburgh.  Hines Ward would have been better.  He went soon after.
A lot of rookie second and third string runners were plucked starting in Round 13.  I'm not as high on them as some were.  New England doesn't run a lot, so I wasn't really going to take Steven Ridley or Shane Vereen no matter how good they've looked in camp.  We're only ten teams deep, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis looked good enough last year, and then add wild card Danny Woodhead  to the mix.  I hate the Pats, but I love Woodhead.  The all-time yardage leader in collegiate football history is totally a Belichick type player: small, underrated, tough, 100% dedicated, heady and surprisingly strong.  I would not be surprised if Green-Ellis went down to see Ridley or Vereen get in there, but Woodhead will be just as involved.

However, I did grab BEN TATE in the 14th, hopeful that he'll actually get on the field this year (it's looking more dubious as each week progresses) and that the Texans are still on the hook for their second round investment in him.  I have a creeping feeling post draft he's not going to do much, not after this recent hamstring pull.  Hamstring injuries are common after surgeries to repair the legs.  Again, I was thinking a little gamble for high upside.  I look back and think why didn't I grab Burress here?   He was another guy I was targeting, figuring two years of non-contact could only help his ankle and foot problems.  Of course, a week into camp he sprained his ankle, so I could be wrong.

My handcuffs of James Starks and Brandon Jacobs were gone, so I grabbed someone else's.  LADIANIAN TOMLINSON seemed like a safe veteran pick here who still could be a BYE WEEK fill-in and put up some decent numbers.  The sting of not taking Burress must have hung-over here, so I went safe with a hope Shonne Greene isn't as good as I think he'll be this year.

A kicker in Round 16 wraps up the draft, and I just figured Dallas scores a lot, but for some reason even with their weapons, they seem to settle for field goals more often then they should.  They're also in a division with some pretty good defenses.  So why not DAVID BUEHLER.

There's no doubt I'm going to have to find another receiver if Brandon Tate doesn't appear soon.  And Ben Tate could also be another pick wasted.  Didn't like my Rounds 9-16 as much as 1-8, and if there's a place I could get tagged it could be my sudden lack of depth at receiver and even QB.

So the JUST A BIT OUTSIDE TEAM team after 16 rounds is:

QB Matthew Stafford
RB Ahmad Bradshaw
RB LeGarrette Blount
WR Greg Jennings
WR Roddy White
WR Mike Williams
TE Dallas Clark
FLEX Knowshon Moreno or Ryan Grant
DEF/ST Pittsburgh
K David Buehler

BENCH
Kevin Kolb
Ryan Grant or Knowshon
Ben Tate
LaDainian Tomlinson
Brandon Tate
Dustin Keller

NATIONAL FOOTBALL POST - EXPERTS DRAFT RESULTS ROUNDS 1-8

Last night, I was privileged to join the third annual National Football Post (NFP) Experts League draft.  Represented were ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS Sports, Hardcore Sports Radio, Fantasy Sharks, Rotoworld, NFL Gridiron Gab, NFP and the freelance SI.com writer, myself (Just a Bit Outside was the podcast I was doing all last year) - it may yet revive.  However, I digress -- it was 10-team, 16 round draft, standard scoring applies, except that we only lose one point per fumble and no lost points for interceptions.  We also get defensives bonuses for the number of yards given up and an additional point for forced fumbles.  Our starting lineups are QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K.  For easy scanning, I have capitalized the picks I made.

So here we go:

I don't feel my job as an expert is to "call out" my cohorts on their draft strategies, as drafts take on a life of their own, and your perspective during a draft can change very quickly.  Rather, I will try to take you into the way I was thinking during this particular draft.  Pardon the imaging but I think you can make out the names and positions all right, and if you click on the image, I think it will enlarge for you.

Slotted in the ninth position in a ten team draft, I already had an idea that with these guys, RBs were going to be hoarded and I would have a tough first decision to make. Sure enough, the first six picks went that way.  Chris Wessling at Rotoworld chanced Michael Vick at the seventh overall selection, and Brandon Funston at Yahoo! took Michael Turner.  Now, I had already figured that none of my top five RBs would be available, but surprisingly, MJD was still around.  I found myself in a conundrum.  MJD is a terrific PPR guy, but I'm not as high on him as a pure runner, particularly in Jacksonville, where David Garrard is nursing a disc injury in his back leaving the rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to take the reins.  Take out any huge receiving threats, though Mike Thomas is a guy some are high on, and you wonder is anyone going to play the pass against Jack Del Rio's crew?  So I had a choice, take a possibly elite, returning-from-injury RB who might get a lesser load this year, or an elite WR.  I went with what I consider the best WR in the game in RODDY WHITE  Johnson's injury problems are the only thing that kept me away from him with this selection.  As of this posting he's already got a finger injury.

I was hoping MJD would go next so I would get my real favorite back this year, Darren McFadden.  However, as is apt to happen, Matt Loede of NFL Gridiron Gab "unLOEDE-d" me of that hope by selecting McFadden 10th and grabbing Andre Johnson as the first pick of the second round.  I decided to stick to my original strategy, because I had backs I was aiming for that I felt (and maybe wrongly so) had more upside at the place I'd get them.  Some will probably look at passing on MJD here as a mistake, but since this is a 3-WR starting lineup plus flex, I went with another elite receiver in GREG JENNINGS.  If Green Bay is going anywhere this year, they need him more than ever as Donald Driver likely will continue his decline, and James Jones and Jordy Nelson, while serviceable, don't scare a whole lot of defenses.

Sure enough, when the draft returned to me with pick 29, I selected AHMAD BRADSHAW as my first RB.  Then I followed it up with LEGARRETTE BLOUNT, the second guy I hoped to get.  Bradshaw is obviously an injury risk but I still love the way he plays the game.  He's aggressive, tough and explosive.  Blount scares everyone, mainly because he might let loose on you with his temper at any time, but five yards per carry and a 1000 yards in only 201 carries behind a decent Tampa Bay line in only 13 games and I'm willing to go with this upside play.  These were two guys I expected to fall to me, and planned accordingly from my mocks.  Let's hope I was right that they'll be solid this year. 

When pick 49 came around, I had no plan on grabbing another running back.  Originally I was hoping I might get another receiver.  When Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant evaporated, I went with DALLAS CLARK at TE.  Both he and Finley (who went seven picks earlier) are returning from season-ending injuries of 2010, and either would have suited me fine.  With Peyton Manning recovering well and expected to be under center, I'll take his favorite red zone target. 

My fifth round pick was going to be a third receiver finishing my starting group and making it incredibly strong in my eyes.  My hope was I would grab someone like Ryan Grant later, who is off everyone's radar this year.  I could have gone Wes Welker, and really wanted to.  But with KNOWSHON MORENO sitting there in the sixth round, I had to grab him.  He's a lock to start, and it's clear Denver will put Kyle Orton under center, making Brandon Lloyd and me much happier.  He averaged 4.3 per carry and had 8 total TDs.  I don't think McGahee or Lance Ball make a dent in his workload, and I expect that it will increase this year.  It was hard to pass up Welker, which might have made me receiver dominant, but I felt strong enough there to add another decent runner who could have upside.

One thing I didn't expect was the feasting on QBs that happened.  Five QBs went in the fourth round, even with the 4-pt TD scoring, including Schaub, Rivers and a favorite of mine, Tony Romo.  After that, there was almost no point in drafting one for the next few rounds, and I could have probably waited another round.  I was caught between Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford.  I think Detroit has more upside this year if Stafford can remain healthy (a big "if" on that one) and continues to throw as accurately as they report he does.  So I chose MATTHEW STAFFORD.  I would have taken my most favorite underdog receive this year, Austin Collie, but Chris Wessling of Rotoworld took him before me.  In Round Eight, I found RYAN GRANT sitting around like I hoped and couldn't pass up the Green Bay starting running back.  Grant's known for starting infamously slow but for all his injury issues until last year's big knee/ankle combo, Grant has managed an average of 15 games 1000+ yards over three seasons.  He's only 28 and because this injury occurred in September is nearly a year out of surgery.  James Starks could easily steal away carries, but again, I'll take even the RB1 of a committee on the Super Bowl Champs this late.

So my team after eight rounds shaped up like this.

QB - Matthew Stafford -DET

RB - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG

RB - LeGarrette Blount - TAM

WR - Roddy White - ATL

WR - Greg Jennings - GB

WR

TE - Dallas Clark

FLEX - Knowshon Moreno - DEN

DEF/ST

K

BE - Ryan Grant - GB

Rounds 9-16 will follow tomorrow.  Comments and thoughts welcome.