Friday, September 21, 2012

NFL WEEK 3 - THURSDAY NIGHT T&R


NEW YORK GIANTS @ CAROLINA
No doubt fantasy players will leap on Thursday night's performance by Giants RB Andre Brown and feel he's reached the big time.  I'm not ready to go there yet, especially since in fantasy you're looking for consistency.  Brown racked up113 yards and two rushing touchdowns against a Carolina rush defense giving up over 140 yards per game coming into Thursday night’s meeting.  When Ahmad Bradshaw returns does anyone think Brown, who was cut many times prior to this opportunity, will replace him?  At best it’s a platoon.  At worse, he’s given about 66 percent less carries.  Give the Giants credit that they attempted to run Brown on Thursday, especially since the Giants have been a terrible rushing team and they were missing offensive lineman David Diehl.  However, in the aggregate, this is a pass first team, and it’s likely they’ll stay that way for most of the year.  The player that I’m aiming for now is Ramses Barden.  Domenik Hixon has speed, but he lacks the prototypical size that Barden has.  Barden has taken awhile to get this far, but he has very good speed and hands, and I think will climb the depth chart to be a worthy third wide out on the Giants.  The Giants would probably prefer to run Victor Cruz out of the slot, leaving Barden on the outside to use his size, much like Hakeem Nicks does.  As for Carolina, Cam Newton is struggling to get this offense going.  He threw three interceptions, and already has five for the year versus two passing touchdowns.  Sure Cam can always use his feet, but he may be feeling the pressure after last year to do too much.  When you consider the Giants’ secondary is beaten up to begin with, and they lost Antrel Rolle in the second half as well, the Panthers should have been able to muster some offense.  Their loan spark was TE Greg Olsen, who grabbed seven of his 14 targets for 98 yards.  Steve Smith managed just four catches but was kept out of the end zone.   Jonathan Stewart was out for this game, and DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert just couldn’t get it going.  Really it was more that the Carolina offensive line had no answer for the Giants front four of Jason Pierre-Paul, Linval Joseph, Rocky Bernard and Justin Tuck.  Those guys beat Carolina to the punch repeatedly and Pierre-Paul had five sacks of his own.  Each team gets 10 days to clear their heads and prepare for Week Four where both teams will be on the road.  The Giants travel to division rival Philadelphia, while Carolina seeks out division rival Atlanta.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW


NEW YORK GIANTS @ CAROLINA
The Giants haven’t had a losing record on the road since 2003, dating back before Eli Manning’s rookie season.  Three of the last four seasons they have posted a record of 5-3 or better whilst traveling.  The Giants have beaten the Panthers three out of the last four times they’ve faced them, the last game being a 31-18 drubbing at the Meadowlands in 2010.  Enter Cam Newton, the new face of the Carolina franchise and the type of quarterback that can give high pressure defenses like the Giants fits.  Newton's ability to scramble and shake off defenders reminds the Giants of another quarterback that has given them difficulty in recent years, Michael Vick.  Both teams have similarly ranked defensive units right now, with the Giants ranked 19th and the Panthers just behind at 20th.  Both teams cede over 100 yards per game on the ground.  Where they differ is Carolina’s pass defense is yielding just 225 yards per contest, while the Giants offense is first overall in passing offense, generating 348 yards per game, not to mention last week's 500-plus passing yards on the Bucs.  Carolina has a weaker run defense, so expect the Giant to employ Andre Brown in an attempt to keep the game stable, as Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out for this game.  With veteran tackle David Diehl questionable, the road could be rocky, as if it wasn’t already behind this 24th ranked rushing unit.  It appears Hakeem Nicks** has a nagging foot problem, and even though he hasn’t practiced this week, he’s expected to play.  If you saw him Sunday though, you know he’s playing through pain.  This is important as Nicks haunted the Carolina secondary in their last meeting, putting up three touchdowns.  He’s a solid start this week, as is Victor Cruz and Martellus Bennett.  Realizing the Giants have had just two drives that have gone three and out, expect Rod Chudzinski’s offense to use a lot of running formations and play-action to slow down the Giants pass rush.  The Giants are giving up 4.6 yards per carry so you'll see a good amount of attempts from their three-headed monster of Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Stewart is again questionable on the short week with his ankle, and if he can't go, Mike Tolbert can fill in as a more physical replacement.  Wide receiver Steve Smith, who has caught no less than five passes for 70 yards and score in each of their last two meetings, has a sore knee.  Newton is going to have to spread the ball more with Smith ailing, and facing a Giants secondary looking to take him out of the equation.  Look for Brandon LaFell and Louis Murphy to fill the void, but I don’t expect a big night from any of them.  The Giants have simply been unstoppable on the road, but for two weeks in a row they’ve found themselves playing from behind a double-digit deficit.  This time they won’t be able to overcome it.  Newton rushes for two scores and throws another.  And though Nicks and Cruz put up good numbers, it’s not enough.
 
PANTHERS 31, GIANTS 24

** HAKEEM NICKS will not travel with the team to Carolina and has been ruled out for Thursday's game.

NFL WEEK 2- T&R (thoughts and revelations)


You're now thinking to yourself, what the heck, except you're using much more profane expressions.  You watched the games incredulously, as if you were had your own anesthesiologist hitting you up with morphine, helpless to do anything but give a senseless grin.  After all, the league is in chaos right now, and survivor pools have been shattered.  If you were in a survival pool, and actually survived, you were fortunate enough to choose Houston.  Congrats, from all us dead New England pickers. 

If you’re an Eagles fan, are you willing to live so dangerously so often?  If you’re a Cleveland fan, does this game give you hope, even though you’re still 0-2.  If you’re a Redskins fan, or better yet an RGIII owner, is there a better time to sell high, or is he the real deal for the rest of the year?

There were two disastrous fumbles by two runners in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter by the leading team that should have resulted in defeats.  Instead, somehow both St. Louis and Arizona were let off the hook.  Crazier still, New Orleans is the only 0-2 remaining the NFC, while Arizona is 2-0.


ARIZONA @ NEW ENGLAND
When the Cardinals Ryan Williams coughed up the football in the final minutes of the Arizona/New England game, we were all thinking, same old Cardinals.  Then a funny thing happened on their way to 2-0.  Normally dependable, ice-in-his-veins, Stephen "Goes-in-ski" went slightly "Goes-wide-ski" and went back to being just regular Gostkowski.  And the entire NFL world fell silent.  Meanwhile, Williams who had probably been thinking about hanging out with Giants running back David Wilson to ponder whether they'd get even another carry this season, exhaled and swore never to drink again on Saturday evening.  The Cardinals, winners of seven of their last nine before this game, went into Gillette Stadium in Foxboro and knocked off the Patriots.  And they didn't do it by beating the Patriots.  Something more uncharacteristic happened.  The Patriots beat themselves.  From a week ago where this Patriot’s team appeared ready to trounce NFL nation, Week 2 brought not only special teams concerns, but also worries with the offensive line.  That makes Stevan Ridley owners, giddy just a week ago, nervous as they should be.   In addition, the Patriots, who targeted Wes Welker 11 times on the day, only did so once in the first half.  He wasn't a starter in this game, and only after the loss of Aaron Hernandez, did he receive 10 more looks.  On the one hand, it suggests that Welker wasn't a thorough part of the initial game plan.  On the next, it means with Hernandez gone, he will have to be.  Are the Patriots avoiding Welker after his missed week of practice at training camp as some kind of punishment?  Or worse, are they looking to groom Julian Edelman and simply move on?  It's hard to imagine the Patriots leading receiver the past few years is being benched to make a point.  However, remember how quickly Randy Moss found the front door.  Now, Welker isn’t a case like Moss, but according to Mike Reiss'
ESPN Blog Welker continues to tow the team line, letting on nothing about his contract or the fact he seems to have been demoted.  Larry Fitzgerald had all of one reception.  Beanie Wells had 14 carries for 44 yards.  He did get a reception, which for Wells is a big deal because he has never had more than 12 receptions in a year.  I wouldn't expect it to become a pattern but if Ken Whisenhunt does put Williams in his doghouse, perhaps they'll use him more in that regards.  I've been a Wells promoter this year, and to be fair, he hasn't produced.  He'll next face an Eagles defense that shut down Trent Richardson and kept Ray Rice at bay.  The Cardinals are 2-0 with arguably one of the toughest schedules so far.  But after this week they get Miami, St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota.  If Wells doesn't start putting up numbers soon, I'll admit defeat.


KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO
There hasn't been anyone who wasn’t questioning how Jamaal Charles had six carries for three yards.  Then word broke from Romeo Crennel that Charles was suffering some knee pain.  Having gone through two ACL surgeries myself, I can tell you knees are tricky things, and this generic idea that such a surgery will heal the same for each football player is just not true.  What this will mean to Charles in the long run depends on if it's simply working out some of the scar tissue or he's had another issue inside with the new ligament.  Regardless, Peyton Hillis' fumble as he attempted to reach across the goal line won't exactly make Brian Daboll feel great about Hillis’ instincts when they return to that scenario.  In lieu of a running game, Dwayne Bowe made his presence felt, with 15 targets and eight catches, but most of his targets came late in the game when they Chiefs were already out of it.  Jon Baldwin received six targets, catching three for 62 yards, two of which were over 25 yards, but received none until the second half.  One of my sleeper picks, Tony Meoaki received just four targets and just one catch.  A lot of this is simply boiling down to Matt Cassel, who is not playing particularly well. 

 
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
Is the Cincinnati secondary that was touted as being pretty talented going to make every quarterback look like an all-pro, or is the fact Brandon Weeden is 28 years old a sign he'll make this kind of mature turnaround?  Weeden looked nothing like the rookie in Week1 who tossed four interceptions.  Instead, Weeden actually made Mohamed Massaquoi look like a relevant receiver.  He also threw two touchdown passes, and kept his poise in the pocket.  Trent Richardson showed why he was a number one pick, as his touchdown reception involved him fighting through four would-be tacklers on his way to the end zone.  Where Cleveland failed again was special teams.  Adam Jones showed his potential as a return man, as Cincinnati's first touch of the football resulted in his 81 return for a touchdown.   Where the Browns failed further was penalties, taking 10 for 103 yards.  In terms of position players, Richardson is the real deal, and looked healthy this game.  As for players like Massaquoi and Greg Little, who caught his first touchdown of the year, it will depend on Weeden.  He faces the Bills next week, sporting a defense that has given up 568 passing yards in two games.  The Bengals’ BenJarvus Green-Ellis fell back to earth with a rather pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry, but did give you over 100 total yards from scrimmage as he added three catches for 30 more yards.  Andy Dalton has a favorable 3:2 TD to interception ratio, and comes up against a Redskins defense that lost both Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker for the season.  Without CB Joe Haden in the defensive backfield, Dalton managed three touchdown strikes to three different receivers.  Jermaine Gresham had five targets Sunday and has 13 on the year, but the arrival of speedy slot man Andrew Hawkins may see Gresham’s usefulness as a downfield weapon diminish.

 

BALTIMORE @ PHILADELPHIA
Michael Vick understands that there’s a time and a place for things, and for him, those things seem to happen on the final drive of the game.  The question is, will his fans understand the same thing?  For the second straight week the Eagles offense committed four turnovers, and for the second straight week Vick found a way to push the Eagles to victory in the closing minutes.  Vick has six interceptions and has fumbled the ball three times, losing one.  How long can Philadelphia continue to pull together victories and continue to turn the ball over?  There are only 71 teams since 1970 that have made the playoffs with a give/take ratio of minus three or worse, or the same total the Eagles have right now.  That number drops to 61 teams at minus four and to 47 teams with a minus 5 or worse.  Brent Celek was Vick’s hero on Sunday, torching the Baltimore secondary for 157 yards.  Jeremy Maclin caught a touchdown, but his hip pointer is now listed as a contusion.  He is questionable for this weekend.  Baltimore, who still looks every much the contender does now have its worries.  Ed Reed was fighting a hamstring issue, and Bernard Pollard left the game with rib injury which he says happened while sacking Vick late in the first quarter.  Reed played the entire game, but Pollard is one of the more active run-stopping safeties in the league.  He ranks fourth on the Ravens right now with 10 tackles and has a sack, three passes defensed and an interception.  He's questionable for next week.

 

MINNESOTA @ INDIANAPOLIS
Donnie Avery is having a career resurrection whilst becoming a constant target for the Andrew Luck.  He was targeted five times in the first half alone, and finished with nine receptions and 111 yards.  Avery also rushed the ball twice for seven yards.  Avery's not a big guy (listed at 5'11") but the knock on him has simply been staying healthy.  He has good speed and soft hands, and is now the Colts second man on the depth chart at wide receiver.  He makes a good complement to Reggie Wayne, and with Luck as his sniper, I'd invest in him.  Not only will he have a career year, but I'm expecting near 70 grabs this season and 7-8 touchdowns.   I am not giving up on Donald Brown as Minnesota's front seven are a tough group to run against (they finished ranked 11th last year).  Brown has Jacksonville this week, a much better matchup.  As for Minnesota, a breakdown of their play-calling makes it clear that there's only three players worth owning fantasy wise: Adrian Peterson (duh), Percy Harvin (double duh) and now Christian Ponder.  Ponder has faced Jacksonville and Indianapolis, albeit subpar defenses perhaps, but has completed nearly 76 percent of his passes, throw two TDs and has zero interceptions.  He's also averaging a whopping 8.31 yards per attempt.  In two QB leagues, he's worth adding, though not necessarily starting this week as he faces San Francisco.   

 

OAKLAND @ MIAMI
This week, the Oakland defense has little excuse.  Reggie Bush simply ran roughshod all over the Raiders to the tune of 172 rushing yards on 26 carries, a 6.6 yards per carry average.  These weren't easy touchdowns either – Bush's first touchdown was simply magical, as he side-stepped, broke two tackles, then avoided the Raiders diving safety to get to the end zone.  This is the Bush I expected to see this year, and though one can't expect this kind of output often, his numbers give you an idea that he has become this team's workhorse, and more importantly, that Joe Philbin recognizes him as such.  Brian Hartline was indeed Ryan Tannehill's favorite target, and though he didn't score, he pulled in nine receptions for 111 yards.  As for the Raiders, I can't tell which is more concerning; the fact that Mike Goodson, not Darren McFadden was able to break a screen pass for a touchdown, or that Carson Palmer continues to look a step behind the eight ball.  In the second quarter, Palmer rolled to his right and had a wide open McFadden for a screen touchdown.  But Palmer delayed for some reason, casting his eyes deeper into the end zone until he ran out of room.  He then fired it to McFadden too late, and the ball bounced off McFadden's chest as he headed out of bound.  The Raiders settled for a field goal.  It's the type of play that has typified Palmer in this short season.  In the Week 1 matchup with the Chargers, Palmer simply missed a wide open receiver streaking down the right side of the field.  The Raiders have multiple problems, including a lack of consistent receivers. However, I contend that while Palmer was the right guy to get to finish last season, letting go of Jason Campbell, and possibly the firing of Hue Jackson, will come back to haunt this team.

 

TAMPA BAY @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Ahmad Bradshaw owners who handcuffed him with rookie RB David Wilson are being left hung out to dry.  Wilson's career started with a lost fumble on his first carry in the Giants Week 1 loss to Dallas.  In Week 2, Wilson was targeted by Eli Manning for his first pass reception short over the middle, and the ball went right through his hands.  Wilson saw two more rushing plays after that and then was replaced by Andre Brown.  Brown, who has been cut no less than five times from different teams, made the most of his opportunity, not only scoring the go-ahead touchdown, but recovering a Manning fumble late in the third quarter to preserve a field goal, that kept the Giants comeback on track.  To say Wilson's professional career has started inauspiciously would be a little euphemistic, especially when you realize Tom Coughlin has little patience for simple mistakes.  Wilson's fantasy value in the near term has certainly taken a hit, even with Ahmad Bradshaw's injury.  Brown appears to now be next in line on the depth chart, and Wilson could see a series here or there.  As for Tampa Bay, Doug Martin was given 20 carries gaining 60 yards and a touchdown, but the Tampa Bay offensive line clearly had problems with New York's front seven.  Wide receiver Arrelious Benn, their second round pick from 2010, saw his first action of the season but only as a punt returner.  Even with the addition of safety Mark Barron, the Tampa Bay secondary was a second half disaster, yielding two scores of over 30 yards each.

 

NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Think the Saints are feeling the pressure already?  Call me crazy, but wasn't Drew Brees' first quarter interception that was subsequently returned for a touchdown the kind of throw he'd have never made last year?  Wouldn't he have realized he was in his own end zone and just tossed it out of bounds?  It just seems that pressure is starting to infiltrate this team in a lot of ways.  Darren Sproles had his first big day this season, 13 catches, 128 yards.  Yet it just seems that if he could ever stay healthy enough, Pierre Thomas should be entrenched as the RB.  He put up nine carries and 110 yards on Sunday, a ridiculous 12 yards per carry average.  Do you know that in Pierre Thomas' career he has carried the ball 20 times only twice, and yet he has four 100-yard games?  In all but one season, Thomas has averaged 4.8 yards per carry or better.  However, Thomas has only played an entire 16 game season once.  Another note, Marques Colston has all of nine fantasy points in standard scoring leagues through two games.  However, none of the Saints receivers sans Jimmy Graham have been consistent so far so it's a little early to panic.  And one note on Carolina – notice how Jonathan Stewart's touchdown came on pass play outside the 10-yard line.  DeAngelo Williams came on a run from the three, but I consider that an anomaly, and attribute it to the fact it was Williams 27-yard scamper that got Carolina into scoring position in the first place.  Mike Tolbert  got a two yard plunge for a touchdown, and had only one other touch for the game.  I believe Tolbert's plunge represents a stronger percentage of what you can expect inside the 10 from Carolina as we move forward.  Also, Stewart was held out of practice Tuesday.

 

HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jacksonville lines provided little support in either direction, and Houston simply ran to their hearts content over the Jaguars.   It's the blueprint Gary Kubiak would probably use every game if he could.  Run the ball with success, protect Matt Schaub from third and longs and make it so he can keep his passes short and mid-range.  Schaub had 29 completions of his 35 attempts for just 195 yards.  Andre Johnson had just three receptions for 21 yards.  I don't think Arian Foster owners need to worry too much about Ben Tate absorbing some of Foster's carries. Kubiak just wants to reassert the fact he has two solid RBs and give defensive coordinators one more nightmare to worry about.  As for Jacksonville, this game was just a huge step back.  It'd be easy to blame QB Blaine Gabbert, but the Jags were missing offensive lineman Ebon Britton and remember, they lost the heart of their defense, LB Daryl Smith.  The Jags aren't especially deep, and Houston got to Gabbert three times, and hurried him a bunch, often the result of long third down situations created by penalties and pressure.  Gabbert left at the end of the fourth quarter and is said to have suffered a glute problem of some sort.  He's expected to return to the field Sunday.

 
WASHINGTON @ ST. LOUIS
This time they would not be denied.  Whereas Week 1 ended in a disappointing last second loss to the Lions, this week Jeff Fisher’s team wouldn’t back down.  Sam Bradford completed 26 of 35 passes, 15 of which found their way to WR danny Amendola’s hands.  Steven Jackson was having a fine game, then suddenly was on the bench.  The initial thought was it was because of a penalty he drew for spiking the ball.  However, word came that he was injured and rookie Darryl Richardson popped in as if nothing had changed.  Problem is, Richardson is a rookie, and with less than four minutes remaining, he coughed up what should have been a game-changing fumble that Washington recovered.  For Robert Griffin III, Sunday was simply a way for him to restate that he has arrived for fantasy owners.  However, without Pierre Garcon, he spread the ball around even more, the biggest play of which came from Leonard Hankerson.  You might remember Hankerson, the rookie who took forever to crack the starting lineup in 2011.  He did so finally in November and had eight catches and 106 yards, only to injure himself for the rest of the season.  Hankerson had only two catches in this game, but one was a 68-yard bomb for at touchdown.  Monitor how he’s used from this point forward, as Josh Morgan’s fourth quarter unsportsmanlike gaff is likely to cost him time.  Depending on how quickly Garcon makes the field again, Hankerson could gain importance as the season wears on. 

 

DALLAS @ SEATTLE
I said it was a scare game, not a horrific game.  I have been watching football in some way or another for about 30 years or more.  Never have I witnessed a team like Dallas, who can so convincingly show you they're a Super Bowl contender one week, then completely baffle you the next.  Sure, the Dallas faithful and many of my cronies in Los Angeles will immediately return to Tony Romo bashing.  But this was a far greater case of one team just enacting its will over another team.  You’ve seen the highlights of a few of the hits, but more importantly, the Cowboys had 112 yards in the first quarter and 184 over the final three.  Based on the Seahawk’s improvements last year, DeMarco Murray had to know his road was going to be tough, and it was.  Bigger question still was where did Dez Bryant go?  Three catches for 17 yards was all Bryant could muster.  I would chalk it up to an off day and see how he fares against Tampa Bay next weekend.

 

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH
For an entire half, the Jets and Steelers looked like they were going to be locked in another iconic struggle.  However, the Steelers defense seemed to pick things up in the second half, and they grounded Mark Sanchez.  After Santonio Holmes’ first quarter touchdown grab, he didn’t catch another ball.  Shonn Greene continues to remind us that he’s nowhere close to a fantasy relevant running back, and not only managed 2.1 yards per carry, but received no targets.  After taking a shot to the head, Greene ceded to Bilal Powell.  Powell, in his second year out of Louisville, put up a respectable nine carries for 33 yards.  Even against the Bills, Gang Green failed to do better than 3.5 yards per carry from Greene.  Thus, I’m not leaping on Powell as a filler for my lineup anytime soon.  The same goes for Steelers running backs.  This line just isn’t getting the job done, and when you consider that the Bills tore apart the Jets defensive line, you can see that the Steelers have a long way to go, even with Rashard Mendenhall’s imminent return.  The Steelers were nearly unstoppable on third down, converting 8-of-15.  Of their 18 first downs, 13 came through the air.  It’s true, the Steelers, of all teams are no longer a running football team.



TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO
Even without starting TE Antonio Gates, QB Philip Rivers is started to look like his old gunslinger self.  Not that Tennessee’s defense is anything special this year.  In fact, they’ve now been torched two straight weeks.  Rivers found former Panther TE Dante Rosario for three scores, and while the Chargers registered zero sacks on the mobile Jake Locker, they spoiled WR Kenny Britt’s return from a suspension by holding him to one catch.  They also prevented Chris Johnson from gaining any traction on the ground.  So that’s two weeks in a row shutting down marquee runners.  The Titans were just 1-for-9 on third down, and the concerns that Tennessee just doesn’t have a go-to guy in clutch situations seems to be coming to fruition.  Britt may become that receiver, but Locker’s wildness and lack of consistency is going to make this a tough year in Tennessee, even if he and Locker do find some chemistry. Ryan Mathews should return this week for San Diego, giving them a much needed lift in the running game, which managed its first rushing scores of the year in the fourth quarter off the feet of Jackie Battle.  Battle may continue to see some looks inside the red zone, but I don’t expect a whole lot more right now.


DETROIT @ SAN FRANCISCO
This was the Sunday night game that I in my bleary-eyed state overlooked last weekend.  Detroit settled for field goals.  San Francisco got touchdowns.  By the time Detroit QB Matthew Stafford hit his TE Brandon Pettigrew for a nine yard touchdown, the game was out of reach.  The 49ers stifled Matt Stafford, forcing him into uncomfortable situations all evening long.  Calvin Johnson still managed eight grabs for 94 yards, but was kept out of the end zone.  What I’ve seen from WR Titus Young is disappointing for a second-year player.  He tends to quit on his routes, or simply finds himself out of position.  This doesn’t bode well, as Jim Schwartz strikes me as a perfectionist of sorts.  Kevin Smith couldn’t get more than 70 all-purpose yards.  Keep in mind, Mikel LeShoure returns from suspension, and should start eating into Smith’s numbers as soon as this Sunday.  As for San Francisco, It seems that Jim Harbaugh is content with Kendall Hunter as Frank Gore’s backup because second round pick LaMichael James was inactive this past week.  Michael Crabtree led all San Francisco receivers again, but when it came time for the end zone, Vernon Davis was again offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s choice.

 

DENVER @ ATLANTA
It seemed obvious to me that Peyton Manning would have some limitations this year.  After all, he himself had come forward pre-season and declared himself not quite 100 percent.  Cut to this past Monday night where Manning was picked off in three straight series, setting Atlanta on a path to victory.  While this may scare the Denver faithful, they have to understand that Manning is still figuring out just what he can and can’t do.  It’s actually beneficial as he’ll work with it, remember it, and unlike some players like Jake Plummer and even Jay Cutler, will use it to improve himself and his play calling.  Atlanta’s Roddy White led all Atlanta receivers with 102 yards and touchdown.  Michael Turner found pay dirt for the first time, something fantasy owners will be pleased to see, until they look closer and see that he managed only 42 yards on 17 carries.  For the season, Turner’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry, and it remains to be seen if this is a function of his offensive line, the fact he’s played two decent defenses (assuming KC’s defense isn’t as bad as it looked this weekend) or just Turner himself.  Turner did get the full skew of carries his direction.  As for Atlanta’s rush defense, Jamaal Charles ripped off 87 yards against them in Week1 and now Willis McGahee tore them up for 113 yards and two scores.  Two guys who have a history of knee issues have had pretty decent success against them.  Atlanta’s defense may be a good target if you’re holding an opposing running back.   

Saturday, September 15, 2012

NFL WEEK 2 MATCHUPS AND BREAKDOWNS

NFL WEEK 2 – THE MATCHUPS

NFL Football is a game of trends.  Last year, that trend was the emergence of more tight ends as viable to downfield receivers than ever before.  This year it’s clear that your offense will fall into one of two categories.  You either have a mobile, athletic quarterback who can make plays with his arm and feet (names like Vick, Wilson, Newton or Griffin III), or you have a pocket passing quarterback, in which case you’re now using a hybrid RB/WR to add various looks to your offense (players like Harvin, Sproles, McCluster, Tebow, Hernandez, Benjamin).  Those trends are changing the ways defenses have to prepare for any given team, and making offenses more diverse than ever before.

1PM DOCKET

TAMPA BAY @ NEW YORK GIANTS
What should the Buccaneers take from seeing the Cowboys dismantle the Giants in their home opener RB yard?  Stay patient with the running game.  Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray had all of 20 rushing yards at the end of the first half, yet finished with 131.  Doug Martin, the Bucs new bell-cow, didn’t score in Week 1, but had 24 carries and 95 yards.  With the Giants hardly a ball-control team, the Bucs will attempt to control the tempo on the road, and are going to give Martin a good shot at his first 100- game.  However, don’t forget about LeGarrette Blount.  Blount has never faced the Giants, he’s only 25 years old, and Martin wasn’t able to score on two tries on Tampa Bay’s red zone possession starting first and goal at the Carolina four yard line.  That could easily mean goal line duties for Blount.  Though Josh Freeman showed prowess in their West Coast passing game in the opener, don’t be shocked if Schiano’s squad takes a few early shots at Vincent Jackson deep downfield due to a Giants depleted secondary.  Jackson should see increased numbers this week, but so should Dallas Clark and Preston Parker.  The Giants face a tough Tampa secondary, which intercepted Cam Newton twice last week.  Tom Coughlin will try to get more of Ahmad Bradshaw and yes, David Wilson into this week’s game, particularly when you consider Tampa was dead last in 2011 containing the run.  Bradshaw’s a solid lock for over 125 all purpose yards and a score.  Look for Eli Manning’s attempts to drop this week into the twenties, with Martellus Bennett continuing his strong start.  Hakeem Nicks is likely to play with his foot injury, and Victor Cruz will make amends for last week.

GIANTS 24, BUCCANEERS 10


OAKLAND @ MIAMI
There’s only one question on the Oakland faithful’s mind: who the heck is the long-snapper this week?  All kidding aside, the Raiders have won just one of their last five matchups in Miami, and should LS Jon Condo remain unable to play, the Raiders have a real concern on their hands.  Will they just abandon punting?  This game matches two teams whose offenses need a lot of work, because as of now, both the Dolphins and Raiders have running backs leading their offenses in both rushing and receiving.  Miami’s rushing defense isn’t bad, but they couldn’t keep a semi-healthy Arian Foster from sniffing the end zone twice.  Darren McFadden is just as talented as his aforementioned peer, and should be able to amass decent rushing totals against Miami’s younger 4-3 defense.  The return of starting center Stefen Wisniewski is good news on that front.  The bigger problem is Carson Palmer and the receivers group, who failed to get anything going against the Chargers until the game wasn’t in question.  Denarius Moore is back on the practice field and should play, giving Oakland a deep threat.  Problem is Palmer’s still not throwing with the accuracy and zip he used to.  Miami is grooming-by-fire QB Ryan Tannehill, who for some reason was charted by Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman to throw the ball 36 times against a very opportunistic and speedy Houston defense.  The results spoke for themselves, and even though Reggie Bush averaged 4.9 yards for his 14 carries, Bush wasn't given more of an opportunity due to the fact the wheels had come off by the second half.  He'll be given ample opportunity to take this game over and relieve pressure on Tannehill.  That in itself makes him a solid play this week for what I believe will be a 150 yards of total offense.  I've made the case that Oakland's defense was overlooked as a huge positive in their Week 1 loss to San Diego, snuffing the Chargers for the entire turnover-fulfilled second half.  If Oakland can get out of its own way, Darren McFadden should lead them to victory.  None of the Dolphins receivers merit much love in fantasy, but if you're desperate, Brian Hartline is the guy you're playing here, as he's the biggest and most physical of the Dolphins depleted receiving group.  For the Raiders, I'm not giving up on Darius Heyward-Bey just yet, but disappearing in the opening week against a division rival has me thinking there's someone better.  Assuming he plays, I like Denarius Moore for a deep touchdown against a Dolphins secondary that gave up five plays of greater than 20 yards last Sunday.

RAIDERS 17, DOLPHINS 13


KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO
Can the Bills ever get a break?  Can Chan Gailey actually become a head coach that wins?  Is Boo Berry perhaps the most disgusting cereal ever created?  These are all important questions, especially since the Bills are being haunted not by a little blue blob, but injuries of seasons past.  Just one week into the season, wide receiver David Nelson has become this year's Donald Jones, and he’ll miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury.  Running back Fred Jackson, has a sprained MCL ligament, which will keep him out at least four weeks.  For the Chiefs, life actually improves with their best rusher LB Tamba Hali returning to the lineup after missing a game due to suspension.  There is also hope that CB Brandon Flowers will return, firming up what was a loose secondary on opening Sunday.  The defenses are crucially important in this game, as neither team brings a whole lot of offensive firepower.  Though both teams were perfect in the red zone last week against good defenses, don't expect a high scoring affair.  The Bills spent muchos dollares to bring in Mario Williams, who registered just one tackle last week, while Marcell Dareus will certainly have a lot on his mind after his brother was tragically murdered.  He returned to the team, and I suspect his anger and anguish will join him in this game.  The Bills will count on C. J. Spiller to add to his league-leading rushing tally, while using their spread offense to get Stevie Johnson and Donald Jones involved.  The Chiefs will also look to keep ball control with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis, while using Dexter McCluster in a variety of packages to draw attention away from Dwayne Bowe.  I have to think Jon Baldwin will show up in this contest, because the Chiefs are so limited, but Bowe makes an excellent play against Bills defensive backfield sporting no one taller than six feet.  This one should be close, and if Fitzpatrick can limit the mistakes, I see the Bills pass rush making a difference this week.

BILLS 23, KANSAS CITY 17


HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE
The Texans have taken the last three contests over the Jaguars by a combined score of 78-44 and won each game by no less than seven points. Maurice Jones-Drew has been a thorn in the Texans side, putting up no less than 13 fantasy points the last three times he's faced them.  Jones-Drew was limited a bit last week, though that became an afterthought after Rashad Jennings left with a knee injury.  With Jennings ruled out for this game he won't be limited Sunday.  Arian Foster has been just as big of a pain to the Jaguars, registering no less than 14 fantasy points in each game; in two of the games he carried the ball over 30 times.  And while the two of them fight it out on the turf, the true difference in the game will be which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes.  Matt Schaub missed the last meeting, where a combined effort from Matt Leinart and T.J. Yates pulled out a 20-13 victory.  Schaub was turnover free in his first effort, completing 20-of-31 passes for 266 yards and a TD.  Andre Johnson, whose health has kept him out of two of the last three contests, figured little last year without Schaub behind center.  The question will be how Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert fares against DE J. J. Watt and the Houston defense.  Laurent Robinson has truly arrived, as he led the team last week in total receptions.  However, I don't like him or Cecil Shorts' chances against this secondary.  Marcedes Lewis should be one of the receivers who could cause problems for Houston, especially in the red zone.   While Gabbert is no doubt improved, Houston's top-notch defense forces a few turnovers at crucial times and takes this one to move to 2-0.

TEXANS 31, JAGUARS 17


CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
The Browns last three trips to Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati have resulted in losses, albeit close ones, including last year’s 23-20 disappointment in November.  This year’s Browns sport yet another rookie quarterback in Brandon Weeden, joined by first round draft pick RB Trent Richardson.  Pat Shurmur gets a pass last week for having his rookie QB throw 36 passes in his first game as an NFL starter only because Richardson probably shouldn’t have been on the field after having a second knee surgery about four weeks ago.  This week Richardson will be asked to carry more of the load.  Anything less than 25 carries would surprise me, and if he gets more, it means Cleveland’s on the way to a victory.  There’s no one worth starting of the Cleveland receivers, but keep an eye on newcomer Travis Benjamin, as he could become an impact slot receiver a la Roscoe Parrish, and may become fantasy worthy in deep leagues soon.  The Cleveland defense rattled Michael Vick, forcing four interceptions and a fumble, but couldn’t hold on late after an ill-timed roughing the passer penalty on Ahtyba Rubin pushed the Eagles to midfield.  Regardless, D’Qwell Jackson and company are for real, and the only worry they have is losing CB Joe Haden, who had seven tackles and an interception.  Dimitri Patterson will have to replace Haden, and will face matchups against the Bengals A.J. Green, or Andrew Hawkins.  Hawkins, the speedy second-year man out of Toledo, had eight receptions and 86 yards in Week 1.  Quarterback Andy Dalton won’t have a ton of time to throw against this Cleveland front seven, but expect him to work his shots downfield, taking advantage of Haden’s absence.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis did as much as he’s ever done to keep Cincy alive against Baltimore, with 91 rushing yards and a touchdown.  However, I think Cleveland’s front seven may be better than Baltimore’s this year, and his lack of ability to make people miss worries me.  He’s still a decent play here, but I’d be looking for Jermaine Gresham, and A. J. green to get their first touchdowns of the year.  Cleveland managed just two third-down conversions Sunday and things won’t get easier here.  Inexperience of the Browns offense will likely kill their chances in Cincinnati of stealing a “W".

BENGALS 28, BROWNS 17


BALTIMORE @ PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles defense appears to have put last year behind them, and now look like that stout, tough unit of promise they were supposed to be 2011.  The problem has shifted to the offense.  The loss of LT Jason Peters, which gets more press than it probably should, is having an impact.  King Dunlap, who is filling in, struggled in game one with a holding penalty, not to mention the fact LeSean McCoy could get nothing going rushing behind the left side of the line, losing a fumble once.  Meanwhile, Michael Vick looked rusty and inconsistent against the Browns, and now faces another aggressive secondary with WR Jeremy Maclin hobbled by a hip pointer. Maclin’s been injury prone, but I suspect he’ll show up for a big game like this, and should make an impact.  The good news is that Vick is mobile, and that can cause a pass rush like Baltimore’s trouble.  Baltimore safety Ed Reed is struggling with a hamstring injury, which provides a great opportunity for a speedy receiver like DeSean Jackson to slip in behind the coverage on a broken play for a deep score.  However, after watching BenJarvus Green-Ellis run up 91 yards on just 18 carries, Andy Reid’s group is likely to use LeSean McCoy all over the place this weekend.  This will be the first time the Ravens have seen McCoy, and unlike Green-Ellis, McCoy can make people miss, has strong acceleration and great hands.  Even against a tough Baltimore defense, you’re keeping McCoy active as he averaged over five yards per carry at home last season, and over six yards per attempt in the month of September. This weekend will be the Eagles first true test defensively, as the Ravens were in sync at home in their opener.  Unlike the first time he played them in 2008, Ray Rice is now a seasoned veteran, and although the Eagles kept Trent Richardson at bay, Rice, much like McCoy, is a different story.  Joe Flacco proved he has more weapons at his disposal than we thought, with Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Anquan Boldin making up a strong trio, and TE Dennis Pitta showing soft hands and an imposing pres ence in the middle of the field.  Opportunities will be limited for both offenses, making both QBs risky plays, but Vick’s tendency to make bad plays puts Baltimore as a favorite, even on the road.  Baltimore will make the entire day tough on McCoy and Vick, and Flacco finally gets credit for stepping to the next level.

RAVENS 20, EAGLES 14


NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA
Carolina welcomes a Saints team that gave up the most points and yards in the NFL last week.  But before you condemn the Saints defense to worst in the league, here are some numbers you should consider.  The Saints yielded just 3.5 yards per carry to the Redskins.  The Redskins converted just four of 15 third down tries, and the Saints forced three fumbles but recovered none of them.  Enter the Panthers, who according to ESPN.com downgraded RB Jonathan Stewart from probable earlier in the week to questionable.  Without Stewart, Ron Rivera’s team attempted just 13 rushes, five of them from QB Cam Newton, for a meager 10 yards.  Against the Saints, the way to victory is long sustained drives, keeping Drew Brees off the field; exactly what the Redskins did when they won time of possession by nearly 19 minutes.  However, Carolina’s offensive will have to do a better job holding blocks to help sustain drives, as the Panthers registered six plays of negative yardage in their four first half possessions last week.  Steve Smith is questionable with a knee issue, so keep an eye trained on the injury report before starting him.  If he plays, he will stretch the same secondary that failed to contain Pierre Garcon.  Watch for Brandon LaFell also to get a few shots downfield as the Saints had problems containing the sidelines, and LaFell is a large target that can go up and take passes away from defenders.  The Saints meanwhile, are likely to use Mark Ingram as best they can, while mixing in a good dose of Pierre Thomas, their best all-around back on the team.  They’ll also likely look to exploit rookie Josh Norman in Carolina’s secondary by working matchups to their favor.  The last time these two teams met at Bank of America Stadium, the Saints escaped a three point winner.  This time, it won’t be nearly as close.

SAINTS 35, PANTHERS 23


ARIZONA @ NEW ENGLAND
The Cardinals haven’t defeated New England since they were known as the Phoenix Cardinals, and that dates back to 1991.  Their offensive line was unable to get anything going on the ground against Seattle, and with LT Levi Brown out for the season, has been a work-in-progress.  Kevin Kolb, retakes the reins now that John Skelton has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, and Kolb has a lot to prove.  Accused early on in the pre-season of being skittish and afraid by Oakland’s DE Tommy Kelly, Kolb has hardly been durable or consistent in his short time in Arizona.  Yet, on Sunday, he stepped in, went 6-for-8 and guided the Cardinals on a winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.  He’ll face a Patriots unit that tormented Jake Locker most of the game.  The Patriots unit will do the same to Kolb, and he’ll have to prove that he can take the heat as it’s unlikely the Cardinals will be able to do a lot on the ground.  Larry Fitzgerald is among the best receivers in the league in any week, and will likely get 10-12 targets.  But for Arizona to win, Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams must push get some quality rushing yardage to keep the chains moving.  Bill Belichick’s teams thrive on turnovers and quick strikes, as Tom Brady will often work out of a no-huddle shotgun offense.  Stevan Ridley had a terrific first game as the starter for the Patriots, but Arizona is tougher up front with Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett. The Cardinals were also the best at getting off the field on third down last year, something they’ll hope to do Sunday.  However, the Patriots weapons are varied and difficult to handle.  Tight end Rob Gronkowski can’t be defended by simply a linebacker, so it’ll be up to veteran safety Adrian Wilson to keep him in check.  That leaves Aaron Hernandez, who’s also been pulling double duty as a fullback, and Wes Welker, who saw just five targets and three receptions in Week One.  Both will be solid plays Sunday.  Arizona simply doesn’t have the weapons or the defense to keep up with this Patriots team at home.

PATRIOTS 32, CARDINALS 17


MINNESOTA @ INDIANAPOLIS
For the second week in a row, the Vikings go up against a young up-and-comer at quarterback, while at the same time sporting their own.  Andrew Luck’s debut didn’t quite go as planned against Chicago.  Nevertheless, it’s clear Luck is pro ready, as was easily depicted in the fact Reggie Wayne garnered nine receptions for 135 yards.  Wayne is the league leader at present for receiving and may be the steal of fantasy drafts.  The Vikings won’t make things easy for Donald Brown, but the opportunities will be there.  He’s worth 80 total yards and a possible touchdown plunge.  A lot of this will again come down to Indy’s defense, a unit that was ranked 30th last year, but has started this year on a better note. Austin Collie is still fighting concussion symptoms and will miss Sunday.  Bigger problem still are the injuries to Pat Angerer and now Dwight Freeney.  The Colts gave up 41 points last week, though Luck turned the ball over four times which certainly didn’t help their cause.  The Minnesota offensive line sports rookie Matt Khalil and former Colt left tackle Charlie Johnson on the left side of their line.  The Vikings were unable to run that direction successfully all last Sunday, and now Khalil will have to take on sack specialist Robert Mathis to keep Ponder’s blind side clear.  With Jerome Simpson suspended for taking in more hash than a 1969 VW van headed to Woodstock, Percy Harvin plays a multi-dimensional role of both wide receiver and flanker, often cycling into the backfield as a running back.  Devin Aromashodu had a crucial grab in last week’s game but has always fallen just short of becoming something to believe in.  Adrian Peterson should have a strong day, and could easily spoil Andrew Luck’s home opener.  However, if Blaine Gabbert can torch the Minnesota secondary, so can Luck, who’ll use Coby Fleener to move the chains, and Wayne to deliver the fatal blow.

COLTS 20, VIKINGS 17


THE 4PM DOCKET

WASHINGTON @ ST. LOUIS
Jeff Fisher would like nothing more than to see less of Robert Griffin III than he has to.  After all, Fisher watched as another star QB, Matthew Stafford, wrenched a victory from him in the first week’s final seconds.  The good news for Fisher is that his defense held one of the best passing offenses in the league in check most of the day, and his new defense forced three interceptions, returning one of them for a touchdown.  Pierre Garcon is a game-time decision, leaving Griffin without an above-average receiver in the group.  Santana Moss has seen his best days already, Josh Morgan was cast off from the 49ers and rookie Aldrick Robinson has good hands and speed, but is a smaller slot receiver type.  Griffin has the ability to make plays with his feet, and he’ll test the discipline of Fisher’s unit, but I don’t expect too many errors.  Meanwhile, Fisher will again load up carries on RB Steven Jackson (he saw 21 in the opener) and will again keep Sam Bradford upright with a short, quick passing game in order to compensate for his depleted offensive line.  Bradford played error free football last week, and with limited weaponry, will have to do so again.  He’ll rely on sure-handed Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson to move the chains.  I don’t expect a lot of points from the Rams, but I also don’t see Washington blowing this one open.

RAMS 16, REDSKINS 14


NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH
The surprising Jets roll into steel town suddenly considered an offensive juggernaut having dropped 48 points on the Bills at Met Life Stadium.  This was a record for most points by a Jets team in an opener, and only one Jets QB, Neil O’Donnell, has thrown for more scores and yardage in a Week 1 contest.  The Steelers return home licking their wounds after a sour day in Denver.  Already plagued by injuries to their running game, now the Steelers defense is hurting too.  In fact, injuries are going to tell the tale in this one.  Star CB Darrelle Revis has been ruled out, leaving  a gaping hole on one side of the Jets secondary.  Though listed as questionable, LB James Harrison is unlikely to play, and safety Troy Polamalu may be a game-time decision.  The Steelers will return safety Ryan Clark to the field for his first action of the season.  Whether the Jets can exploit the lack of pass rush the Steelers have shown without Harrison, becomes Sanchez’s job.  The Steelers were a minus-13 last year in the give/take, though are even at present.  Without Clark, Polamalu was hardly a whisper, and the Broncos torched the Steelers for 240 passing yards and two scores.  Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning, but he does have second year speedster Jeremy Kerley looking up to form and former Steeler Santonio Holmes, who will no doubt want to show up his old team in their confines of Heinz Field.  Thus, I’m starting Holmes Sunday if I own him in the WR3/Flex spot.  Shonn Greene has faced the Steelers only once, and managed 40 yards on 12 carries.  Don’t expect more than 75 yards and a score, and that’s if the Steelers have the same pursuit problems they had last weekend in Denver.  The ‘X’ factor is Sanchez, whom I have no doubt the Steelers will blitz in an effort to try to get into his head and force some turnovers.  In 2011, Sanchez was more accurate on the road but much more tentative and turnover prone, throwing only 10 TDs  versus nine interceptions.  With Revis out, Ben Roethlisberger will look to stretch the field using Mike Wallace deep and Antonio Brown underneath.  Todd Haley will try to rush Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer but likely to no avail, even though the Jets defense allowed C.J. Spiller 169 rushing yards.  The Steelers will get some big plays, but with the state of their offensive line, and a questionable defense at present, this game will be too close.  The Jets will shock the Steelers at home.  Did I really just write that?  Sadly, yes.

JETS 24, STEELERS 21


DALLAS @ SEAHAWKS
When it comes to Seattle, does anyone talk about anything but the weather?  They do now, as  rookie QB Russell Wilson has excited the Seattle fan base.  Meanwhile, just nine days after helping to defeat their division rival, Tony Romo, arguably the most tormented quarterback in America finds Dallas opening contract talks for an extension.  Historically, Seattle is 4-9 all time against Dallas, and has lost the last three contests, all in Texas.  However, the last time Dallas won in Seattle it was 2004, and they have lost the last two meetings in the great northwest.  Pete Caroll and Darrell Bevell fed Marshawn Lynch 20 carries last week, and it’s likely they attempt to do the same to keep the Dallas pass rush at bay.  Eighteen of Lynch’s 20 attempts last week were over to the center or left side of the line.  With NT Jay Ratliff, a hulking presence in the middle of their 3-4 defense, out for Dallas this week, expect more of the same.  They Seahawks will run right at DeMarcus Ware in order to keep him busy.  The good news for Seattle fans is Wilson is a mobile quarterback, one who can avoid the pass rush and take off if he needs.    This game has a scare feeling to it, as Dallas has been known to lapse just when you think won’t (see their loss to Arizona Week 13 last year).  Romo’s offense will spread out the Seahawks defense, attempting to take advantage of his size (Dez Bryant) and speed (Miles Austin) advantages.  Jason Witten should be in better condition this week adding to Seattle’s woes.  The Seahawks had no answer for Larry Fitzgerald down the stretch, so I anticipate this is a big day for Bryant, who is not listed on the Dallas injury report.  The experienced Dallas defense may bend but won’t break against the rookie Wilson, and though they’ll make a few mistakes, the Cowboys will escape with a win.  Romo will put up another 300 yards and a few touchdowns, but will also have his first turnover.  I don’t expect easy going for DeMarco Murray, so don’t anticipate anything more than 75 yards or so.

COWBOYS 23, SEAHAWKS 16

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

TENNESSEE @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers faithful will always applaud a win over the division rival Raider, a team they hold in as high regard as sensitivity training, but they have to be hoping that the disturbing statistics of going 1-for-5 in the red zone, not to mention adding another field goal after starting on the Raiders 41, is not a trend.  The Chargers offense is again without Ryan Mathews, leaving Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley to carry the load.  Against a Titans defense that yielded over 100 yards to Stevan Ridley, that should mean something, but Brown doesn’t have the kind of acceleration he used to after all his leg issues, and Brinkley doesn’t shake contact well.  Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates will see plenty of targets, with Gates favored to star after seeing what New England’s tight ends did to the Titans.  Chris Johnson will attempt to be better than Darren McFadden, who managed just 32 rushing yards in 15 attempts.  Johnson looked terrible Week 1, and color me dubious that he’ll be better after a cross-country flight.  Jake Locker definitely showed he’s got a cannon arm, but could do a little work on his targeting.  The return of Kenny Britt can definitely tip the balance, especially when you consider the Chargers lost Quentin Jammer to thumb surgery.  Britt is questionable with a knee injury but expected to play.  Jared Cook should also play a factor, as he’s not-so-quietly become a known entity among fantasy players and was targeted six times last week.  Ronnie Brown is worth a start this week, but I expect the game to be another one decided by quarterbacks, and I actually like Locker’s weapons better than Philip Rivers.  Still, I’m going to stick with the veteran Rivers and the Chargers at home.

CHARGERS 26, TITANS 17


MONDAY NIGHT GAME

DENVER @ ATLANTA
For the second week in a row, the Broncos will feel the white hot spotlight of a prime time matchup that comes with owning a league-wide headline that is Peyton Manning’s return to glory.  The Denver defense, ranked in the top ten in nearly every category right now, will have its hands full against an Atlanta offense that looked primed to be a scoring machine in 2012.  Julio Jones has officially arrived after his two touchdown performance last week, and Tony Gonzalez added the 96th touchdown of his illustrious career.  Michael Turner nearly split the rushing load with Jacquizz Rodgers last week, not the kind of numbers Turner owners wanted to see.  Expect more of the same against Denver’s tough front seven led by second year stud LB Von Miller.   Matt Ryan had a brilliant season debut, providing three touchdowns with his arm and one with his legs.  In Denver, fans were treated to a deep sigh of relief, as Peyton Manning played efficient football and survived a few tough hits in leading Denver over the Steelers.  While Manning doesn’t have the zip on the ball he once had, he is still the league’s best field general, the benefactor of which will be Demaryius Thomas, assuming he stays healthy, and Jacob Tamme. Thomas is nursing a shoulder injury but is probable for Monday night.  Besides his early fumble, Willis McGahee looked like he’s ready for solid season as an RB2, but he won’t add any value to PPR rosters.  He’ll get his shots against Atlanta, which yielded over 100 total rushing yards to Kansas City.  This should be a high scoring affair, but I don’t yet trust that Manning is 100%, nor has the weaponry Ryan does.  Roddy White should show up in this game even more in this game, as Atlanta’s size advantage against the Denver secondary is substantial.  White tallies his first score, Turner adds nearly 20 carries and 65 yards, and Gonzo finds pay dirt again.

ATLANTA 31, DENVER 27