INJURY REPORT- Thursday Night Game

UPDATED 5:27PM PST
KEY INJURIES

CLEVELAND

Colt McCoy (knee) is listed as probable.  He practiced fully meaning the knee sprain can't be limiting him too much.

Peyton Hillis (hip) is questionable but expected to play.  As mentioned in my blog both teams will be hurting, and it's not an ideal matchup.  Still I have to admit I'd prefer a probable status to questionable.  I'm thinking about sitting him for Ben Tate this week, but my other key starter McFadden is out and Beanie Wells has had two new injuries crop up, besides the fact he's going against SF.  Hillis may get a play by default for me. MARY KAY CABOT confirms Hillis is starting tonight vs. Pitt.  I'm on the fence at this point but may have to run with him (pun intended).  I'm benching Hillis for Ben Tate.  I expect Hillis to get his share of carries and probably 50-60 yards....but Tate should see an elevated workload after Arian Foster had 31carries last week.  It's a hard call because everyone including me drafted Hillis for big games this year. 
T.J. Ward (foot) - the young strong safety won't play again Thursday.  Always something Mike Wallace yearns to hear.

Mike Adams (shoulder) - Adams is the starting free safety, he's questionable. 


PITTSBURGH

Ben Roethlisberger (thumb) is probable.

Rashard Mendenhall (back) is probable.  He'll start.

Emmanuel Sanders (foot) - is out meaning Hines Ward will be more involved.

Lamar Woodley (hamstring) -the Steelers leading sacker is likely to miss this game.  He's listed as doubtful.  Just call him out and be done with it.

Troy Polamlau (knee) is probably but a bit concerning because this is a new injury.  He was coming off a concussion last week, but now you have to keep an eye on this.  If he goes down, the Steelers can't replace him.  No one can do what Troy does.

James Farrior (thumb) & Larry Foote (hamstring)  - Add two more Steelers linebackers to the "playing not at full strength list".  Keep checking for that Hillis update.


All others are probable.  Check back in to this same blog for any updates.

NFL THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW

CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
Not quite the rivalry it once was since Art Modell’s Browns moved to Baltimore, the Browns-Steelers matchup is a still a fierce one.  Both teams come off divisional matchups, with the Browns having suffered a loss against Baltimore.  The Steelers routed the Cincinnati Bengals in Pittsburgh, and face a Browns team that hasn’t beaten them at home since 2003.  After putting up two games that appeared to show some growth, Colt McCoy has had two divisional stinkers, averaging less than five yards per attempt.  Granted, the pass defenses he faced were both top ten, and his weaponry isn’t exactly top notch.  Mohamed Massaquoi has lost favor to the likes of Greg Little and even Jerious Norwood the past few games.  Little’s biggest problem is dropped passes which is easily noticed in his 50 receptions of 94 targets.  However, he’s the best Cleveland has.  Peyton Hillis owners find him in a less than favorable matchup to say the least.  However, don’t bench him just yet.  First, both teams have had just four days rest meaning both teams won’t be at full strength.  Second, Colt McCoy is playing on a sprained knee, making Hillis (and company) likely to be used as much as possible.  Physical runners like Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew dropped at least 10 points on the Steelers this year.  Lastly, Hillis ended up with nine points against Baltimore, the best rushing defense in the league besides San Francsisco.  No, he’s not a top option this week, but if you’re thinking of benching him in favor of guys like Toby Gerhart, Ryan Grant, Marion Barber or any of the Colts, Chiefs or runners, I’d reconsider.  I expect 15-20 carries, 50 yards rushing and four receptions for 25-30 yards.  Rashard Mendenhall probably gets his best matchup of the season, and he and Ike Redman are going to see another game of a combined total of 25-30 carries. Ben Roethlisberger will take his share of shots at this top-rated Cleveland pass defense, but it likely he won’t top 250 yards and two scores.  He won’t need to pass that much.  The Steelers defense, even without Lamar Woodley should keep the Browns in check, particularly at home, where they have six of their eight interceptions, and 22 of their 27 sacks.  Their unit is a top defensive play this week.

PITTSBURGH 23, BROWNS 10

WEEK 13 T&R (thoughts and revelations)

This might not just be the year of the quarterback, but more appropriately titled the year of the IMPROBABLE quarterback.  Not only have the stars aligned for Tim Tebow during this five game streak, but T.J. Yates now takes the reins of a 9-3 Houston team after an unlikely first start victory against Atlanta. Caleb Hanie hopes to find a fast learning curve to keep the Bears playoff bound, though hopes are slipping quickly, and Andy Dalton finds his team now looking up in the AFC North with only one huge division game remaining against the Ravens in the final week of the season.  There is the possibility of four playoff teams sporting second or third string starters/rookies making this year's run toward the post-season very unique.

SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE

For the first quarter it was close, and Jacksonville actually had a lead.  Then all heck broke loose in the final two minutes of the second quarter, and the Jaguars 14-10 lead became a 24-14 deficit.  I hadn’t had as much opportunity to watch the Jaguars this year, but tuning in Monday night it became clear why Blaine Gabbert hasn’t developed as quickly as Jacksonville wants.  He’s shell-shocked.  Any time the rush got near him he flinched his body, often falling backward away from the rush and losing any power he had behind his throw.  This flinch is happening more often than it should for a young quarterback, and my thought is if they don’t address it soon, Gabbert may never get out of the habit…. assuming it is just a habit.  It’s possible, as Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski discussed on Monday night, that Gabbert just doesn’t have the willingness or competitiveness to stand in the pocket and throw when he knows he’s going to get plowed.  It seemed that if Monday night was any indication, Gabbert would much rather tuck the ball and run when anyone made their defensive presence felt, and he has little ability to step up in the pocket and throw. 

DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
Detroit did it again.  They got down 17 points but this time it was to the type of team that doesn’t let other teams come back.  Lance Moore made a pivotal touchdown catch with 22 seconds left in the first half, keeping the Saints edge at 21, and New Orleans put away Detroit 31-17.  I have always been a Moore believer, though Scott Engel and I always used to always debate his abilities.  He’s not very tall, but has true leaping ability, quickness and maybe the best hands on the team.  It was Detroit runner Kevin Smith that impressed me the most though.  Smith had never shown any downfield vision or decisiveness, and never seemed the ability to kick in any gears of speed that represented true starting potential.  Against the Saints, he not only made some nifty lateral cuts but then was able to accelerate through them to gain piles of yards.  He also did this while playing with a gimpy ankle.  High ankle sprains can take even longer to heal than broken ankles, and he probably should have stayed off it.  But the grittiness and determination he showed, paired with a new level of speed makes me a believer in him for the rest of the year.  The Lions biggest problem isn’t their running game or their defense.  It’s their stupidity.  This time it was Titus Young throwing a punch to the face of a Saints player while being held back by the referee.  It cost the Lions a possible touchdown, and instead they settled for a 24-10 deficit.  If I’m Jim Schwartz, I’m benching him a game and fining him within the organization.  Rookie, smookie – you’ve played enough football to not be that stupid, especially when you have Ndamukong Suh on your team.  But it didn’t stop there!  Stefan Logan and Brandon Pettigrew both lost their cool and cost their team 15-yard penalties.  It boggles the imagination.


GREEN BAY @ NEW YORK GIANTS
How much time is too much time to leave Aaron Rodgers on the clock?  In the Giant’s case 58 seconds was too long.  Three pass plays down the field and the Packers were in Mason Crosby’s range.  The Giants also learned that if you give Rodgers seven seconds inside the red zone, he’ll find even someone as ancient as Donald Driver.  Naturally, as I wrote that Driver was no longer truly the second wide receiver on the club, Driver scored twice doubling his tally for the year.  You still don’t want him on your fantasy team.  Greg Jennings continues to make things happen, and Jermichael Finley gave fantasy owners a big sigh of relief as he found the end zone for the first time in four games.  Victor Cruz had another 100 yards receiving, and Hakeem Nicks added two touchdowns.  Sure enough. Brandon Jacobs gave you little more than his one-yard touchdown plunge in the first half.  It’s scary when you write it and it happens.  Also, give props to Chase Blackburn.  He was signed right off the street and stepped back into the Giants starting lineup for Sunday's game.  His name didn't even make it into the program.  All he did was finished third on the team with seven tackles, had two passes defensed and intercepted Aaron Rodgers for only the fifth time this year.

DALLAS @ ARIZONA

What I called a scare game for the Cowboys became a disaster.  Beanie Wells shook off past failure against the Cowboys to add 67 yards and a touchdown.  He continues to show that he is indeed worthy of being an NFL starting running back, but also a solid RB2 for your fantasy team.  Keep in mind that he’s just in his third year, and he’s played through a knee injury, showing mental toughness at a time when the Cardinals’ record made it easy to mail it in.  Dallas continues to have what appears to be either a massive offense line problem, or a coordination problem.  The Cowboys wasted twenty seconds at the end of the game spiking the football instead of using their second timeout to shorten Dan Bailey’s final field goal attempt.  As if that wasn’t bad enough, Jason Garrett’s time out when Dan Bailey had split the uprights from 50 yards out forced a second kick which Bailey failed to convert.  And thus, the game went to overtime.  Also to note, Larry Fitzgerald had just four catches, no scores and wasn’t targeted once in Arizona’s two trips in the red zone.  Andre Roberts hauled in all six of his targets for 111 yards. 

BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND

As it turned out, Joe Flacco didn’t make any costly mistakes, and he wasn’t necessary.  Ray Rice took control of this game and carried 29 times for 204 yards and a touchdown.  Ricky Williams added a one yard score, and the Ravens special teams did the rest.  Tight end Ed Dickson tied for the team lead in targets (4) and had the most receptions (3).  Now, the Browns do have a good pass defense, but the disparity the Ravens have had in their passing game on the road versus at home should make Ravens’ fans hope they land home field advantage.  It was clear again Sunday.  The Browns undoing was a three-for-14 third down conversion rate.  Peyton Hillis, who ESPN (and thus likely the Browns injury report) listed as doubtful, played and split the difference between his two games last year, giving you 97 yards of total offense, which wasn’t shabby against the Ravens.  However, none of the Browns receivers gave you better than a forty percent catch rate unless they averaged under 10 yards per catch. 

ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO

Frank Gore had a decent game, but it was indeed Michael Crabtree who found the end zone, as well as second-year man Kyle Williams, giving Alex Smith his fifth multi-touchdown game for the year.  In his best year of 2009, Smith had six such games, but never with the kind of overall completion percentage, QB rating and touchdown-to-interception ratio that he’s posting this year.  He isn’t being asked to carry the team, but he’s stepping up when he the 49ers need him.  For the Rams, Brandon Lloyd was held to just a single catch, and backup A. J. Feeley had about as much success as starter Sam Bradford.  He committed two turnovers and was sacked four times.  Perhaps the highlight for the Rams came in the form of safety Craig Dahl, who after having a career high 98 tackles last year, has struggled to come near those totals this year.  According to ESPN, Sunday he had a team high 13 tackles, 11 of them solo stops. 

ATLANTA @ HOUSTON

Matt Ryan came up against a strong Houston secondary, and his numbers took a huge U-turn.  Though he did place his final attempt in Julio Jones’ hands and should have been rewarded with the tying score, his overall performance against solid teams has shattered my faith in him as a fantasy quarterback.  Ryan averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt against the Texans armed with an array of weapons that rivals most playoff bound teams in the NFL.  He completed just 43 percent of his passes.  The Falcons have beaten just two teams with a record better than .500, and one of those teams is the Tennessee Titans, a team unlikely to make the playoffs.  While Ryan’s numbers aren’t terrible, a lot of them came against suspect secondaries like that of the Colts, the Vikings, and Philly, though the Eagles at the time was thought to be strong.  We have since learned differently.  Thirteen of his 18 touchdown passes came against those teams.  Julio Jones is a rookie, and I’m certain he’s taken longer to grow accustomed to the professional game, and has had injury setbacks to boot.  But there’s no doubt he’s a tremendous talent upgrade from Michael Jenkins.  Tony Gonzalez, who joined the Falcons three years ago, replaced Justin Peelle.  Can any comparison even be made between those two?  Enough said.  Texans WR Andre Johnson pulled his other hamstring now, meaning it’s possible he’s Miles Austin’s long lost brother.  Honestly, Houston may be 9-3 and but they can’t get a break. T.J. Yates actually outplayed Ryan, and made Johnson worth playing until he got hurt.  He’ll be tested next week against Cincinnati without Johnson.

NEW YORK JETS @ WASHINGTON

For a half of a football game, the Washington Redskins reminded everyone why the New York Jets, besides the Philadelphia Eagles, was one of the most overhyped units at the start of this season.  Then for the next 30 minutes, they reminded us why the Jets can be great.  After Roy Helu sliced and diced the Jets early on, the defense responded and held him to just 28 rushing yards in the second half and forced a fumble from his hands.  It can’t be stated how devastating a loss to the Redskins would have been.  Instead of being 6-6, the Jets are 7-5 and substantially better situated to make the playoffs.  Santonio Holmes finally put up a big play touchdown of 30 yards, though still managed only 58 total yards.  Bigger deal still might be that Shonn Greene was trusted with two red zone touchdown carries and delivered his longest run of the season, a 25-yard scamper at the end of the fourth quarter.  Keep in mind he still delivered only four yards per touch, and this is as much an offensive line issue as a Greene one.  As for the Redskins, kudos to Mike Shanahan for actually sticking to one running back (though he really had little choice).  However, it was surprising that Helu didn't get even  more screen opportunities considering how well he handled being part of the passing game last week, and Rex Grossman’s tendency to throw to the other team.

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH

The Steelers did stick to their word that they were going to emphasize the ground game more against Cincinnati.  Rashard Mendenhall added two more touchdowns, making the Bengals his favorite team.  Of the eight rushing scores Mendenhall has, four have come against the Cincinnati defense.  He's averaging 3.8 yards per carry for the year, and thus why he has just 634 rushing yards.  It seems to me this is more representative of the Steelers continual offensive line problems rather than a reflection in Mendenhall's ability.  Mike Wallace reappeared for two scores, reminding the Cleveland Browns that they have a tough group of receivers to cover this Thursday.  Meanwhile, A. J. Green continued to display incredible maturity for a rookie, proving that it doesn't really matter who is matching up against him, he's going to have an impact.  He's a player to target for next year. 

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Josh Freeman was a late scratch and if there was any doubt of the choice between him and Josh Johnson, this game may have solved that problem for you.  The team settled for field goals while Carolina scored touchdowns and the Buccaneers bowed out for a sixth straight loss. Oklahoma RB Mossis Madu was called up from the practice squad and may get a solid look after LeGarrette Blount failed to gain more than 20 yards on 11 carries.  Madu may bring an “Ahmad Bradshaw”-esque pairing to Blount’s “Brandon Jacobs”-style of running.  Cam Newton became the record holder for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback, but be warned, this is a sign that he is just exhausted in my mind.  The last four games have seen his pass attempts drop from forty attempts to 21 attempts Sunday.  Instead of passing the ball into the end zone, Ron Rivera is using Cam for his legs.  It’s a sound strategy, but we all know Cam can run.  I believe his arm fatigue is real, and as much as I don’t want to see what I’m about to suggest happen, I can’t understand why if you’re Ron Rivera you simply don’t rest him.  You’re 4-8 and have nothing to play for really except the fans.  The last thing you want to have happen is that your prized quarterback goes down with some kind of knee injury.  Rushing Newton to rest his arm is simply setting this up to happen.  In addition, there’s going to come a time where Newton gets hurt.  You’re going to need to continue to develop Jimmy Clausen.  Why?  You invested a first round pick in him that’s why.  I own Newton on a fantasy team and he has been nothing short of amazing.  And that’s why if I’m Ron Rivera, Newton sees maybe a half per game the rest of the way.  I appease my home fan base and at the same time continue getting real reps to the guy that’s likely my backup for years to come. 


TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO
It’s Spiller time.  C. J. Spiller turned in a solid performance, and could have had a second touchdown if it wasn’t for a ridiculously awful holding penalty.  This was against the seventh best rushing defense in terms of yards allowed per contest.  However, it was Chris Johnson who put up 153 yards and two scores, and showed more of the kind of acceleration we’ve been accustomed to.  Johnson has three fair to middling defenses to face the next three weeks, so unless you’re championship runs into Week 17, you’ve got Johnson peaking at the right time.  With Johnson leading the way, life was a whole lot easier for Matt Hasselbeck, who completed 16-of-25 passes.  Nate Washington suffered an ankle injury, and that means that Hasselbeck will seek out Damian Williams even more.  That’s not saying much most games, but he does have three touchdown receptions in the last five games.


OAKLAND @ MIAMI
It’s rare when you get to see a player develop before your very eyes.  For those of you who have seen the Dolphins late-season victory spurt, you may have noticed something about running back Reggie Bush.  Bush is no longer just a PPR maven or simply a finesse style runner who will split carries for the game to change the pace of things.  What I’m seeing is a totally different type of runner, a guy who isn’t dancing and trying to make people miss, but someone who is running hard between the tackles and rarely going down on first contact.  He carried 22 times for 100 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. What’s even more ironic is the two times that Bush carried the ball close to that many times for the Saints (his 19 and 20 carry performances) he averaged over five yards per carry.  Has Bush been overlooked as a true first stringer?  It would appear the more Bush carries the ball, the better he is, and the Dolphins seem to be utilizing him more and more.  What I’m seeing is Reggie Bush in a whole new role.  Matt Morris certainly is playing at a whole new level himself.  The Dolphins were eight for 14 on third down conversions, and Anthony Fasano played his role in a share of those.  For Oakland, this loss did not come at a fortuitous time as they next head to Green Bay to face the Green Bay Packers.

INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND

Tom Brady is going to do more than buy Rob Gronkowski a pair of Isotoner gloves (there’s my age for those of you who don’t remember the Dan Marino commercials) because Gronkowski hauled in two Brady touchdown passes and then decided to play full back and run one in for good measure. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was only given six carries but managed a touchdown plunge.  Surprising to me was that New England only ran the ball 24 times, and managed just 73 yards total.   More interesting however, was Dan Orlovsky, who doesn’t win ball games but simply makes them close.  The 24 points the Orlovsky-run offense put up on New England tied for the most points the Indianapolis Colts have scored in a game all season.  It certainly doesn’t bode well for the idea that New England pass defense is improving, as it took Dan Orlovsky less than three minutes to put up two big touchdowns after three quarters of futility.  He’s got tough matchups the rest of the way, starting next week with Baltimore, but he could make some of those Colts receivers still worth having.  I’m speaking to you Pierre Garcon owners.

KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO

Talk about a game that was all about futility – does it get any worse that the only touchdown was scored on a Hail Mary pass that was batted into the hands of Dexter McCluster?  Having seen Caleb Hanie play before, I don’t think anyone expected the kind of horrific numbers he put up.  However, it’s being said that Mike Martz’s offense is so complex, that Hanie shouldn’t be faulted for not picking it up so quickly.  It’s one of the reasons Chicago hasn’t put in a claim for Donovan McNabb.  As Devin Hester put it, and I’m paraphrasing, there’s just no way someone from outside the system can just come in and function in it.  However, the offense is going to have to change as Matt Forte is out a minimum of two weeks.  Marion Barber appears to be running with the same reckless abandon he had when healthy in Dallas, but the question is how long he can stay healthy doing so and will Mike Martz rely on him.  Tyler Palko isn’t in much better of a situation.  He’s now three games in and the signs of improvement were so encouraging to Todd Haley that he was willing to put Kyle Orton behind center in the midst of the game, and Orton’s been with the team all of two weeks.  The Chiefs don’t have much of a running game to speak of, and Haley and his offensive group have been unwilling to commit to any of their three backs, leaving them and all of us guessing who they have confidence in.  The answer really seems to be none of them.


DENVER @ MINNESOTA
Even without Von Miller at linebacker, the Denver Broncos hung in there, and Tim Tebow performed admirably in the second half, matching the Minnesota offense point-for-point.  While Tebow was completing 10-of-15 passes for a 13.5 yards per pass attempt average, there was Christian Ponder, left without Adrian Peterson, and all but guaranteed to target Percy Harvin, something Denver knew, and all he did is put up 381 yards and three touchdowns.  Sure, that last interception was terrible, but the Vikings have to feel good about their future if they can get this guy a complimentary receiver for Harvin.  Ponder’s got Detroit, New Orleans and Washington the next three weeks, with New Orleans being the weakest of the three.  However, if Peterson misses the Detroit game, you can bet that Ponder will again have to make 30 or more passing attempts to keep his team in the game.  That could make him a decent play in two QB leagues or if your starting QB went down with an injury like Josh Freeman.  Toby Gerhart actually did a yeoman’s job filling in, and Willis McGahee continued his incredible season against a strong if not banged up Minnesota team.  McGahee owners don’t have particularly good matchups until Week 16, when Denver faces the Bills in Buffalo.

NFL WEEK 13 PREVIEWS

Ah, Week 13.  For Jack Del Rio, thirteen was indeed unlucky.  For some other teams, the passing of time into December means better things ahead, and others it is a harbinger of worry. 

THE 1:00PM DOCKET

KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO

Most fans will look at Kansas City’s situation, and curse their failure to make the post-season (as is likely) on Tyler Palko.   True, he had some ill-advised throws, but some of thosee just reveal a lack of chemistry that will change with time.  The Bears won’t make it easy though for the Chiefs to iron those wrinkles out this week.  At home, the Bears defense has forced six extra turnovers, and has added six extra sacks.  Palko will be hard-pressed considering his lack of running game to find his targets.  However, the Chiefs would be well-advised to give Palko some leeway, as the Bears are 30^th overall preventing the pass allowing 270 yards per game.  Dwayne Bowe owners shouldn’t be concerned because he’s been posting good numbers since Matt Cassel’s injury, has 20 targets in the past two games, and against the Steelers added seven more catches for 69 yards. On the other side of things, Chicago has their own quarterback woes, as Caleb Hanie’s three first half interceptions gave Oakland enough push to win the ball game.  It was Hanie’s first start, and in the two key games he’s played, he’s made enough plays to keep things close (the other game was the playoff game versus Green Bay last year).  The play calling last week didn’t assist in that effort, as every drive except two for the first three and one-half quarters of play began with a first down run.  That kind of predictability won’t help Matt Forte, who has been ceding more carries to Marion Barber lately, particularly in the red zone.  However, Forte still is getting his receiving opportunities with 10 targets last week, resulting in six receptions.  Barber may simply be fresher, but against this Chiefs’ defense ranked 26^th against the run, I’d consider Barber a nice flex option and start Forte. With the loss of Jake Cutler, consider Earl Bennett’s value equivalent to the current housing market – it’s falling fast.  Johnny Knox had 10 targets of his own against Oakland including an 81 yard touchdown.  Hanie won’t find it easy going against the Chief’s cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers, so expect a good dose of Forte with a look to Kellen Davis or Matt Spaeth in the red zone.  The Bears have much more depth, and should take this one pretty handily.

BEARS 23, CHIEFS 10

ATLANTA @ HOUSTON

Matt Ryan has been en fuego as we see in suburban white-bred America say because it sounds cool and we like to think we can speak Spanish.  He has two 300-yard games in his past three and hasn’t thrown for less than 240 yards since the Bye week.  He also has posted a 9:2 touchdown to interception ratio.  In turn, the Falcons offense is getting the kind of output that was expected when the season began, scoring no less than 23 points in those last three contests.  However, don’t get too excited here.  Three of the last four pass defenses he faced were in the bottom third of the NFL, and the Texans are one of the best, giving up just 176 yards per contest.  The Falcons Michael Turner also will have to ground it out against Houston’s fourth ranked rushing defense.  The Falcons would love to see him carry the ball at least 20 times because Atlanta has lost just once when Turner carried 19 times or more.  With Tyler Yates seeing his first action as a starter, the Falcons can expect a few costly mistakes, shortening the field for them which should be the difference.  Arian Foster and Ben Tate will get as many carries as they can handle, even against the Atlanta’s second best rush defense.  The Falcons have only allowed seven rushing TDs this season, so they’ll be tested against Foster, who has met the end zone each of the last five games rushing, and has led the Texans in targets the last three weeks.  Where Atlanta is vulnerable is their secondary, so keep Andre Johnson in your lineup and pray that the Texans line that has allowed just 16 sacks gives Yates that extra split second to find Johnson streaking open.  I normally would recommend Owen Daniels especially with a rookie under center, but the Falcons are giving up the third least amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  Take Atlanta, as they’ll win by four.

FALCONS 17, TEXANS 13


TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO

If there ever was a more despicable touchdown dance I have yet to see it. Steve Johnson’s display in the Jets end zone was the thing suspensions should be made of.  Lest we forget that a moment to celebrate does not impose itself on someone else’s misfortune, or in this case Plaxico Burress’ sole method of providing for his family, karma itself paid him back with the stupid penalty he received and a giant Bills loss.  This becomes a huge game for both of these clubs, as the Titans sit at 6-5 and with Houston’s injury issues suddenly are the object in the rearview mirror for the Texans.  Buffalo’s youth showed sent them under .500 for the year; still, the Wild Card opportunity exists.  Matt Hasselbeck may be wearing down for the Titans, as the past two games he’s managed just 47 completions on 86 attempts for 503 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions; this against two secondaries ranked below 23.  Chris Johnson had his best game of the season in an 190-yard outburst, so Buffalo feels like a solid for him here.  However, I’m not overly enthusiastic because of the seesaw he’s been on all year long, and the Bills haven’t allowed any runner to gain 100 yards in their building this year.  Without George Wilson again, the Bills will still be weaker in the secondary, and Damian Williams has five touchdowns in the last seven games, with four of those coming in the red zone.  The Bills will rely on C.J. Spiller, who managed a paltry 2.8 yards per carry in last week’s dust-up against the Jets.  He’ll get plenty of chances against the Titans, who are giving up 124 rushing yards per game but only five rushing scores.  So I’d expect at least four to five receptions considering the play of Tennessee’s secondary.  Scott Chandler has 11 receptions and 121 yards in the past two games and gets his value augmented once again as only four teams have giving up more points to tight ends than the Titans.  The key to this game will be turnovers, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had his first game without an interception since Week 11, should fare well at home with the returning health of his receivers.  I like Buffalo to win in December.

BILLS 27, TITANS 24

OAKLAND @ MIAMI

It was a sad week in Oakland with the passing of far too young Chester McGlockton, which is only compounded by the fact that LB Rolando McClain was arrested for firing a gun and pointing it at a man’s head.  I don’t think that’s what Hue Jackson meant when he said he wanted his team to be intimidating.  So if you’re Oakland, probably the last team you want to run into is the Dolphins, which have gone 3-1 under Matt Moore’s recent surge.  He has seven touchdowns against just one interception and has posted just one game in the last four where he hasn’t completed over 60 percent of his passes, that against Dallas last week.  The Dolphins are vulnerable to the pass rush, having given up 34 sacks, so the suddenly inspired Reggie Bush becomes a good RB2 play, particularly in PPR leagues.  Oakland yields 135 yards per contest, and Bush averages a now career best 4.3 yards per carry for 100 plus carries.   Brandon Marshall seems to have his biggest output against superior pass defenses:  see his 5/103/1 line against the Jets or his 6 receptions for 109 yards against the Jets so I'm a little worried about him here.  For the Raiders, Carson Palmer hasn’t been too shabby himself.  Even with the late scratch of Denarius Moore last week, Palmer was able to hit Marcel Reece and Louis Murphy for big plays to set up a big day for Sebastian Janikowski.   Oakland is the most penalized team in the NFL, and on the road they’ll have to play a tighter game to beat the suddenly tough Dolphins.  Michael Bush will find the road much rougher against Miami’s seventh best rush defense, so I expect a bigger day from Palmer, especially with safety Yeremiah Bell now listed as doubtful.   Denarius Moore is your best play here as he had six receptions for 137 yards and two touchdowns since Palmer became the starter.  However, I’m taking Miami at home and Reggie Bush to win the battle of the Bushes.

DOLPHINS 23, RAIDERS 17

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH

The Steelers post Bye week malaise against the Chiefs has a lot of people questioning whether they should be worried about the Bengals.  They should be.  A.J. Green is back to health – the same Green that caught a touchdown pass against them as he injured his knee – and Andy Dalton will take a few deep shots early as Cincy tries to grab an early advantage on the road.  However, slot man Andrew Hawkins, brother of safety Artrell, has made inroads for his own case as a threat.  He’s a shifty slot receiver of all of five-feet-seven, and has had 11 catches on 15 targets against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland, three of the NFL’s best pass defenses.  Jermaine Gresham also has added 33 targets in the past five weeks, putting him in line recently with TE talent such as Dustin Keller and Tony Gonzalez.  He’s not quite in that conversation, and the Steelers have defended TEs well this year, giving up just four scores, but Gresham is beginning to make his case as a dangerous weapon.  The Steelers offense might look the same to Cincinnati, but it’s the defense that should concern them. The Steelers intercepted Dalton twice and held him to a 5.7 yard per attempt.  You might say, so what?  Well, they did that without LBs James Harrison and Lamar Woodley, both of whom are expected on the field Sunday.  Andy Dalton has been sacked just 16 times and in the first game the Steelers barely touched him.  It’s likely to be different this time around.  A key for Pittsburgh will be trying to loosen up the Bengals pass defense with Rashard Mendenhall, who they claim will get more carries this week.  I’m not buying it.  He had two touchdowns in their first meeting but managed just 44 yards.  I still expect the Steelers to be a pass first team, even with Mike Wallace’s recent disappearance.  The secret is out on his speed and it appears he’s being double-teamed quite often, with the benefactor being Antonio Brown.  Jerricho Cotchery scored against the Bengals Week 10, but his stature in the lineup will drop with the health of Emmanuel Sanders.  I’m just not buying Dalton is yet able to march into Pittsburgh and get this victory….yet.  He will soon enough.

STEELERS 27, BENGALS 17

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Cam Newton’s yardage totals make it appear that he’s physically all right, but perhaps mentally the long season is taking its toll.  Since Newton reported shoulder fatigue three weeks ago, he has two games without a touchdown pass and five interceptions in the three games since.  His QB ratings for two of those games are under 70.  With this in mind, one would think Ron Rivera would want to lift the pressure from Cam Newton’s shoulders against Tampa Bay’s 30^th ranked rush defense giving up 140 yards each game.  That doesn’t mean Steve Smith should be forgotten as Tampa Bay has given up 19 passing touchdowns.  DeAngelo Williams gets the edge on the ground when it comes to carries amassing 25 carries for 142 yards and two scores in the last two games, while Jonathan Stewart garnered nine receptions for 99 yards in those same contests, making him a PPR superior.  Defensively, the Panthers have caused six turnovers in the last three games, making the turnover-prone Josh Freeman appear like welcome prey.  However, for the Panthers to get to Freeman, they’ll have to stop late-peaking LeGarrette Blount, who has two 100-yard performances in a row, and last year put up 91 yards and a touchdown against them.  Another strong play this week comes in the form of Mike Williams, who has two scores in the last two games.  In December 2010 through early January 2011, Williams scored five of his 11 total touchdowns adding 20 receptions and 267 yards.  These two players would seem to get better as December rolls around, and this is a prime matchup for them.  Freeman is the concern, as the Tampa Bay's five game slide coincides with a run where the Buccaneers QB hasn’t put up a game with more touchdowns than interceptions.  All indicators point to this being a Panther upset, but I expect the surging Blount to run as much as they can to prevent the Panthers from using Newton’s dynamic style to subdue them.   Freeman will get Kellen Winslow involved in the short passing game, as he done the past two games to the tune of 14 receptions and 184 yards.  Give the points and take Tampa at home.

BUCCANEERS 24, PANTHERS 20

NEW YORK JETS @ WASHINGTON
Sometimes the just the presence of a receiver on the field can make the difference for a team’s offense.  The return of Santana Moss, who saw his first action for the first time since week since Week 6, means that the Jets pas defense has to now decide who they prefer CB Darrelle Revis blanket.  Last week Moss only caught four balls for 29 yards, but his presence allowed Anthony Armstrong to draw single coverage and Rex Grossman found him for a 50-yard touchdown strike.  Jabar Gaffney will also draw his share of attention.  Fred Davis has to get high consideration, if for no other reason than he leads the team in receptions and Davis has made his presence known at the end of the past two seasons.  In 2009, he put up 15 receptions for 147 yards and four scores in December.  Last year, for all of his health issues, he managed two touchdowns on four grabs to close out the final two games of 2010 season.  Regardless of the weapons, this game will be about the quarterbacks.  The Redskins have thrown 18 interceptions, a league high tally, of which Grossman is responsible for 15.  The Jets have taken away 13 passes from the opposition, and Revis leads the team with four.  Grossman has to protect the ball for the Redskins to win.  Roy Helu should be in line for a good amount of carries and receptions, but Mike Shanahan makes any running back a gamble.  For all the talk of the Jets defense, in the end this team will go as far as Mark Sanchez takes them.  Even against the likes of the Bills struggling rushing defense, the Jets managed a total of 138 rushing yards, and that was their second highest tally of the year.  Santonio Holmes collected a solid paycheck in signing with the Jets a few years ago, but this year hasn’t delivered.  In fact, Holmes is failing to lead the receiving corps in any of the important categories.  He’s third on the team in terms of targets, second in touchdowns behind Plaxico Burress’ scores, and is behind Dustin Keller in receptions and yards after the catch.   The lack of the big play has haunted the Jets all year long, as their longest pass play belongs to LaDainian Tomlinson, and their longest run is 24 yards.  Redskins safety LeRon Landry is out with Oshiomogho Atogwe still questionable and DeJon Gomes probable, meaning the ‘Skins defense is thin at the deep position.  I’m will to take a desperate Jets team on the road with a late Grossman turnover the difference.

JETS 20, REDSKINS 14

DENVER @ MINNESOTA

The stars just seem to be aligning for Tim Tebow to continue his improbable winning ways while completing just 46.5% of his passes.  To give you an idea of how fortunate this situation has been, he faced Oakland without a ready QB; he faced the Jets without Tomlinson and RB Shonn Greene was knocked out on the first series;  now he gets Minnesota without what is arguably the best runner in the league, Adrian Peterson.  Peterson will miss another game with his high ankle sprain, leaving Toby Gerhart to fend against a Denver defense that’s been beating running backs to a pulp since Tebow took over.  Willis McGahee will be once again featured in this option offense, and his 4.8 per carry tally for the season is only bested by four other runners in the league with a minimum of 100 carries.  On defense, Von Miller, who is listed as questionable with a thumb injury, has been a man possessed.  He now has 10.5 sacks, and will face one of Minnesota’s weakest lineman, Phil Loadholt.  Christian Ponder is becoming the victim of the lack of weapons.  Percy Harvin, who was limited Friday due to illness, is speculated to be suffering migraines again, something that haunted him most of last season.  He’s done his best to lift this Vikings team on his back, now ranking third on the team with 33 rushes and first with 51 receptions.  Michael Jenkins has had one of his better campaigns, but he’s just not a man who can stretch the field and at times has had suspect hands.  Devin Aromashodu doesn’t appear to be the answer, as he’s caught just nine of his 39 targets for such an abysmal receiving percentage there’s no point in writing it.  My guess is TE Visanthe Shiancoe will get more chances when you consider the Denver cornerbacks are still among the best.  The slow starting Vikings have been down 17 points by halftime their last two games, while the Broncos have never seen a deficit they fear.  The Vikings are the fifth best rushing defense, but both E.J. and Erin Henderson are slow by injuries, so if Von Miller is healthy enough to go, take Denver to continue this improbable streak.

BRONCOS 13, VIKINGS 10

INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND

The point spread and the fact this was originally scheduled as a prime-time matchup but was moved for fear of boredom tells you all you need to know.  There isn’t a Patriot I’d want to bench, even with the Colts yielding just four touchdowns to tight ends, the Patriots best receiving threats.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis makes a sneaky good play this week, and not just because he pushed a couple across the goal line last week.  Indianapolis has given up a league-leading 15 rushing scores, tied with Carolina, and even though Bill Belichick doesn’t have the mercy gene, the Patriots will take the lead and do their share of running making even Danny Woodhead worth considering if you’re desperate. The Patriots are now, after all, the 15^th best rushing offense.  The wild card in this game is new Colts starter Dan Orlovsky.  Ironically, Orlovsky hasn’t won a single game he started, and was 0-7 overall in games Detroit the in 2008.  Of course, this was the season Detroit couldn’t stop an uphill marching tortoise, and there was little he could do except what he did.  He threw eight touchdowns, and most of them were to Calvin Johnson, so I’d be willing to start Reggie Wayne this game, as well as Pierre Garcon.  Don’t be surprised if the Colts go for broke with Orlovsky.  He doesn’t have fantastic accuracy or arm strength, but the six-foot-five, 230-pound QB heads a Colts offense with nothing to lose.  Donald Brown has lifted himself from obscurity to outpace Joseph Addai and Delone Carter recently, but it’s still nothing to get so excited about against New England’s now 12^th ranked rushing defense.  Strangely enough, as bad as the Patriots pass defense has been, CB Kyle Arrington leads the NFL with seven interceptions.  He may get his eighth and the Patriots will take this one but not as handily as some might expect.  I’ll take the 20 point spread, as in Orlovsky’s seven starts his worse loss was in his first ever start against the Packers.  They Lions lost by 23.

PATRIOTS 35, COLTS 21


ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO
Steven Jackson poses little risk to break the San Francisco defensive wall that hasn’t allowed a single touchdown this year.  The best St. Louis can hope for is that Sam Bradford hooks up with Brandon Lloyd for a few deep scores early and holds off Frank Gore.  The Rams have the highest fumble tally (23) in the league of which they’ve lost 12.  They are converting just 28.7% of their third down conversions, and only Jacksonville has scored less offensive touchdowns.  They’re yielding 5.1 yards per carry, and Frank Gore should highlight a rushing attack that should also feature Kendall Hunter for a few carries.  Michael Crabtree hasn’t seen much of the end zone but that should change this week as he’s had good success against the Rams, hauling in two touchdowns last year in their two meetings.  So play him and Gore, who I expect is likely to get his first receiving touchdown this week as the Rams secondary has held TEs to an average of just 2.9 points.  Also to note, the Rams have allowed seven returns for touchdowns.  As if you need any more motivation, this is a strong game for the 49ers defense/special teams unit.

49ERS 20, RAMS 10

THE 4:05 GAME

BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND
If the kickoff time messes with you at just five minutes after four o’clock, the matchup won’t.  Baltimore comes off a huge win against San Francisco, though to be fair it was the 49ers fourth cross country trek of the year, and at some point there’s only so much of that a team can take.  Ray Rice, who should be the focal point for both teams, is only averaging 16 carries a game, something that probably disturbs the Baltimore faithful as much as it does Rice’s fantasy owners.  On the other hand, Joe Flacco is now averaging 37 attempts per game, up seven attempts per game from last year.  But Flacco is just 2-3 on the road and his 7.52 yards per attempt drops to 5.89 out of the friendly confines of M&T Bank Stadium.  Against this defense, you can likely put Torrey Smith on hold, as when Flacco isn’t turning to Rice, he’ll rely on the veteran presence of Anquan Boldin to move the chains.  I suspect Ricky Williams may get some extra field time this game, due to 29^th ranked rushing defense.  And just as Baltimore’s running game is a big hit for this game, I’m not jumping from the Peyton Hillis train either.  Hillis put up 144 yards in last season’s opener against the Ravens in Baltimore.  He wasn’t as strong at home in their second meeting, but Hillis has had plenty of rest, and the fatigue that’s hitting other players now is not likely his.  His fresh legs and the number of carries Cleveland will need him to have is why you risk him as a RB2 or RB3 this week.  Colt McCoy has only faced Baltimore once, and his three interceptions in his first matchup versus Baltimore also added to Hillis’ woes.  Baltimore has given up just three rushing scores, but a mistimed turnover by Flacco will lead to a short field at least once for the Brownies.  McCoy had four straight games completing over 63% of his passes until last week’s Cincy game, and Cleveland is now over 40 percent on third down conversions, slightly better than the Ravens.  Greg Little has taken over as the Brown’s top receiver, but Little’s focus will have to be spot on, as dropped balls have plagued him, though he found the end zone finally last week for the first time.  The biggest problem for Cleveland is they’ve registered just 22 sacks this season.  Bet they’re wishing they hadn’t lost Kamerion Wimbley right now, as the pick they used on Phil Taylor hasn’t helped the rushing defense as much as they might have hoped.  Still, this division matchup could come down to the wire.

RAVENS 23, CLEVLAND 19

THE 4:15 DOCKET

DALLAS @ ARIZONA

Dallas has lost their last two trips to Tempe, and this is the fourth straight times these two teams meet in Arizona.  Tony Romo didn’t play in the last year’s game.  However, his last trip there in 2008 saw him throw three scores in a terrific performance that was soured by Dallas’ dreadful special teams.  Arizona gives up an average of 22 points to wide receivers this year, and though you might lean toward Dez Bryant, I’m going with the man I said would be the difference maker against Miami, and that’s Laurent Robinson.  In the last five games he has 31 targets, most on the team and has scored six touchdowns.  It’s a career year for Robinson and against Arizona, I'd continue to ride that train.  DeMarco Murray has certainly helped the Dallas sell their play-action, as he’s managed two 100-yard performances in the last four games, but has scored just once.  He should get close to 100 yards against and a score against Arizona.  Beanie Wells also continues his career year, but has struggled against Dallas in the past.  Regardless, you have to go with him at home and hope a Romo mistake sets him up for a short score.  Kevin Kolb returns for the Cardinals, which may not make Larry Fitzgerald owners happy.  Remember, Fitzgerald had four touchdowns with John Skelton under center, and Kolb’s last four starts yielded a 3:5 touchdown to interception ratio.  The Dallas secondary is missing safety Gerald Sensabaugh and CB Mike Jenkins is fighting a hamstring injury.  Thus, Kolb should be able to get Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts involved early.  However, the biggest plus could be Todd Heap if he returns.  The Cowboys are among the worst at defending tight ends this year, and the middle of the field will get some good matchups for Heap or even Jeff King if need be, though King isn’t worthy of a start.  This game should fall easily for Dallas, but it’s a scare game, as on the road they’re 2-3.  However, LT Levi Brown of Arizona has been credit with allowing 10.5 sacks this year, and facing LB DeMarcus Ware will only serve to augment that number.  The five game win streak will move to six, and I’m going to eschew my initial fears and watch Dallas cover.

COWBOYS 27, CARDINALS 17

GREEN BAY @ NEW YORK

Perhaps the last possible stumbling block between the Packers and a perfect season, it falls once again on the New York Giants to take down another, um….giant.  The last time these teams faced each other in the regular season Aaron Rodgers dumped 404 yards passing on them and four passing scores.  The Packers are riddled with injuries along their front five, and that is part of the reason Rodgers has been dropped 27 times.   Packer receiver Jordy Nelson now leads the Packers with a career high nine touchdowns, and in just 11 games this year he’s passed all of his previous year totals.  I'd still lean toward Greg Jennings, but Nelson is clearly the WR2 of this team.  John Kuhn is the Packers leading scorer on the ground with four touchdowns to give you an idea of how much Green Bay avoids rushing the football.  If Rodgers has time, this one won’t be so close, and I expect the Packers to push Jermichael Finley into the secondary and get him back on the board as top tight end this week.  That’s a challenge for New York, who is without DL Osi Umenyiora.  Thus, Giants’ Justin Tuck will have to master this mish-mosh Packers line and pressure Rodgers into some miscues.  Meanwhile, Ahmad Bradshaw returns to boost a Giants league-low rushing offense.  The Giants average less than 90 yards a game, and will have to get something going on the ground to keep Rodgers sidelined.  He’s the only back worth using, as Brandon Jacobs has only one game with over four yards per carry in his last five.  There’s just nothing left in that tank except maybe a fortuitous one-yard plunge should the situation arrive.  Mario Manningham will sit again, making Victor Cruz again a huge threat.  He’s now the fourth ranked fantasy receiver in terms of points, and is fourth in the NFL in receiving yards.  Don’t forget about Hakeem Nicks who received 12 targets last week to equal Cruz.  Eli Manning should be in your starting lineup as well, as he could have had even more than 406 yards if the Giants could catch the ball.  The difference in this game is the fact that while the Packers have been giving up yards, they are now leading the NFL in takeaways, having added nine since the Bye while committing just two.  The Giants last week were accused of quitting in the midst of a playoff run.  I think Tom Coughlin’s team blinks first.

PACKERS 38, GIANTS 31


SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS

Detroit is 4-1 this year on the road, beating the likes of Dallas, Tampa Bay, Denver and Minnesota.  Now comes their stiffest test, as their tendency to fall behind won’t be met with chances for a comeback against a Saints offense that converts 53.3 percent of their third down conversions.  Detroit has also given up no less than 27 points in each of their games since the Bye.  Compounding the problem is that New Orleans, a team that runs just 38 percent of the time, is now eighth best at it.  Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas is a formidable tandem, and Darren Sproles is a difference maker, averaging over 6 yards per carry.  Jimmy Graham is tied with Giants receiver Victor Cruz for fourth most yards in the NFL.  Join that with his eight touchdowns and he’s become the most offensively dominant tight end in the NFL.  Keep an eye on Lance Moore, who has scored four times in the last four games, and is truly the team’s best possession receiver for third down passes.  He won’t get the kind of targets the Marques Colston or Graham will, but he makes the most of his snaps.  Detroit is the counter to the Saints in the sense they are the best team at stopping third down plays, allowing just a 28 percent conversion rate.  The Lions were a plus-13 just five weeks ago in the give/take column, but Matthew Stafford has been firing passes at everyone equally these days, compiling a 7:9 touchdown to interception ratio since the Bye and now they're plus-6.  However, with New Orleans giving up 254 yards a game and being turnover prone themselves (minus-3 for the year) Detroit has every opportunity to hang in this one.  Surprise back-from-the-grave runner Kevin Smith has another high ankle sprain, but thinks he’ll play Sunday, which means I’m still keeping Maurice Morris active if I’m in need of a runner.  New Orleans still gives up 117 yards per game, and Detroit is going to have to find a way to bleed some clock at some point. Calvin Johnson is a must play of course, but a sneaky play for your TE this week is Tony Scheffler.  Scheffler has 16 receptions and five scores on the year, but two TD receptions in the past three games, and three of his four scores have been red zone targets.   December is Drew Brees’ worst month career wise, and Detroit is in a must-win situation really, so I’m taking Detroit and the nine.

SAINTS 31, LIONS 27

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE
We all know the story here.  Philip Rivers has led the Chargers to another vaunted season of passing prowess with one exception – he now has six fourth quarter interceptions leading to what has become a six game slide after a 4-1 start.  Meanwhile, it’s the dawning of a new era in Jacksonville, who has new ownership, and a new interim head coach in Mel Tucker, who replaces Jack Del Rio.  The Jags have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL, and Blaine Gabbert hasn’t developed as fast as the South Florida faithful would have hoped.  However, he’s had little talent around him sans Maurice Jones-Drew.  In perhaps a message to WR Mike Thomas, Jason Hill was summarily cut this week, leaving newbies Cecil Shorts and Jarett Dillard to fill in as wide receivers for Dirk Koetter’s new offense.  The one player to eye this game is Marcedes Lewis, who has found himself on the end of 23 targets and 11 receptions the past two games.  Expect him to be involved as the Chargers have allowed six passing scores to tight ends this year.  However, most of the responsibility will be on Jones-Drew again, who hasn’t disappointed this year in terms of yardage, and should gain plenty against San Diego’s 25^th ranked front seven.  San Diego’s line is falling apart each day, even with Ryan Mathews having a very productive year.  I expect the Chargers to attempt to get the ball rolling on Mathews' shoulders, even against a Jags defense yielding just 111 yards per game rushing.  Vincent Jackson continues to be a boom or bust guy, and against the fourth best secondary in the league, I fear bust again.  However, the loss of Rashean Mathis hasn’t completely been felt yet, and with Antonio Gates trolling the middle of the field, and Malcom Floyd likely to return, prospects are a little less bleak.  Vincent Brown has 23 targets the last three games, but the problem is he’s caught just nine of them.  Don’t be so inclined to throw him out there in this matchup.  Talent wise, San Diego should bury the Jaguars, but renewed faith and a new coach added to the Chargers turnover happy ways have me thinking upset.

JAGUARS 16, CHARGERS 13

THURSDAY NIGHT (T&R)

A quick wrap from last night's game.  I feel like I need to take my convictions more seriously.  I knew Marshawn Lynch would have a good game, but just didn't think it would be 105 yards and two touchdowns midway-through-the third-quarter-kind-of-game.  I own the Seattle defense in at least two of my leagues.  There's a reason.  Their improvement, particularly at home has battered teams like Baltimore and the Giants, and last night just made Vince Young look like a rookie all over again.  Four interceptions, one for a touchdown that I heard on the radio (it sounded bad, looked worse), but in all fairness to Young, with a disgruntled DeSean Jackson (maybe rightfully) and Riley Cooper as his threats du jour, you almost can't blame him.  I still can't explain why LeSean McCoy is seems like a sidebar to the Eagles story line of the year so often.  He averaged 4.9 yards per carry last night, yet carried only 17 times. He was targeted five times, tied for second most on the team, and managed 49 receiving yards and a score.  Yes, he scored both of the Eagles touchdowns, but watching most of that game last night I just got the feeling Andy Reid was relying on Vince Young.  It just doesn't make sense.  The Eagles have lost just one game this year when McCoy carried the ball more than 20 times.  He's a play maker in every sense of the word.  It doesn't help that the wide receivers have hardly carried their weight this year, and that it seems Brent Celek has hardly been a consideration around the red zone.  Two years ago, according to rotowire.com, Celek was targeted 24 times in the red zone.  This year, he's at 11, after having just 12 last year as well, and for the first six weeks of the season, he never saw more than four receptions in a game, exceeding five targets just twice.  Two years ago this was a tight end with 76 receptions.  Granted quarterback indecision and a dynamic turnaround as the Michael Vick era began kept his 2010 from being a repeat of 2009, but the Eagles receivers group has been a mess this year.  With the mobility of both Young and Vick, it's hard to believe Celek should have been kept at home in a blocking role as often as it appears he has. 

Tarvaris Jackson still likes to put the ball in the air off his back foot for me to be too enthused, but last night was his best night all season in terms of efficiency as he went 13-for-16 for 190 yards and a score.  More importantly, he didn't turn the ball over.  Lynch had several fantastic runs, but none more amazing than his 15-yard scamper after he virtually disappeared from view amidst a mass of Seattle and Philadelphia linemen, only to reappear five yards later and score.  I had told some of my buds when asked for advice in their leagues, and I believe written several weeks ago that if there was a fantasy back to trade for it was Marshawn Lynch.  His schedule is good, he played well last year in the final weeks of the season, including the playoffs and this year appears to be even better.  Golden Tate has two scores the last two weeks, but don't go leaping on that bandwagon just yet.  His four receptions Thursday was the most he's had in a game all year, and even with Sidney Rice out for the year, Doug Baldwin and Deon Butler are back to health and it's fantasy playoff time so remember you're taking a big risk in anything more than a flex play.  That being said, Tate was supposed to be a worthy talent, and as the Seahawks' season is unlikely to result in a Wild Card berth, Tate may see more opportunities to prove if he's part of this offense's future.

THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW - PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE

PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE

The Eagles fly to the northwest, hoping that in facing one of the league’s worst offenses, their defense might shore up the ship and make it fly right.  Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin have been ruled out for this game, once again leaving the onus on Vince Young and DeSean Jackson.  Jackson hasn’t been up to the task, as he dropped three balls last weekend, two that would have been touchdowns.  The speedy receiver now faces Seattle’s secondary, one that is 14^th best at giving up least fantasy points to receivers, and has allowed just 14 passing touchdowns on the year.  LeSean McCoy is a strong play again, as the Seahawks allowed Washington RB Roy Helu 108 yards on 23 carries, as well as 54 receiving yards on seven catches in Week 11.  Keep an eye also on TE Brent Celek, who in Young’s two starts has 11 catches for 135 yards.  The Seahawks lost Sidney Rice to the injured reserve with a concussion, taking a good portion of their offense with him.  Thus, Marshawn Lynch will get many opportunities to try to keep the Eagles offense off the field.  He has three 100-yard performances in his last five games, and has scored in four of those.  With the Eagles yielding 110 yards per game (ranked 15^th), Lynch will be key to the Seahawks game plan.  Tarvaris Jackson has just three touchdown passes in his last five games, and until last week, had gone five games without multiple touchdowns in a week.  Seattle receivers  Ben Obamanu and Doug Baldwin will attempt to help the passing game, but keep in mind Baldwin leads the team with just 37 receptions and two touchdowns.  I like the Eagles to win, but not to cover.
 

EAGLES 24, SEAHAWKS 21