NFL WEEK 6 – T & R (thoughts and revelations)

Two tremendous comebacks graced our screens in Week Six, one on Monday Night Football that will be remembered for some time to come. Consistency had been hard to find this year, even for teams with vaunted reputations. Eleven NFL teams are 3-3 this year, one third of the league and five teams are one over .500. There will be some key waiver wire discussions this week, some of which you've heard. More importantly, fantasy owners have a few opportunities, depending on their situation, to improve their teams, selling a few players coming off big games, or picking up a rather disappointing runner in Minnesota. Thought and revelations on Week Six start now.

BUFFALO @ ARIZONA
This game might have been decided on the first play. Bills RB Fred Jackson fumbled away the football and set Arizona up with outstanding field position in the Bills 35 yard line. The Cardinals settled for a field goal. The next Arizona possession, Kevin Kolb was sacked in the end zone. Those two events pretty much set the tempo for the game. The Arizona offensive line would allow five more sacks, making for a third straight game where Kolb was taken down four or more times. Kolb would leave the game injured, again taking a shot to the ribs, and John Skelton's return didn't do anything to solidify him returning as the starter. He was 2-for-10, so even though in the past Skelton's been fixated on Larry Fitzgerald, you hope for all Cardinals' fantasy value Kolb returns. As for investing in any runner in Arizona, if he's the last running back remaining for you to hold, LaRod Stephens-Howling is probably the only the long term dividend provider assuming he stays healthy. William Powell did average 5.4 yards per carry, but before you get carried away with that, remember this was the Bills defense. Howling didn't do much better, but there's a history there, and my feeling is they'll throw to him a lot more. Both quarterbacks threw for under five yards per attempt, perhaps the ugly reflection of the lack of time each of them has behind their respective lines. The good news for C. J. Spiller owners is that he appears to be healthy. He averaged over seven yards per carry and gave you 110 total yards. Jackson gave you 83 total yards, but that's his second lost fumble of the season.

Hardesty would likely take over.

CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND
Think Joe Haden makes a bit of difference? Looking at the box score you might not think so, but A. J. Green didn't get his first official target until early in the second quarter. His sixth target was picked off by Haden and gave Cleveland a field to goal to pull them within one. Green ended up with a good game, but no doubt Haden's presence kept Green from being as involved as he might have been, and by the time Green got his second touchdown, the tide had turned in Cleveland's favor.  Montario Hardesty filled in for Trent Richardson after Richardson sustained a rib injury. He's set for MRI though he claimed originally that he didn't need one. That makes Hardesty a speculative pick-up from the waiver fire. First, he's never played well when he has been given the opportunity. Second, it's clear that if Richardson can endure the pain, he's going to want to play. Pat Shurmur is going to have a hard time benching his star first round draft pick. Hardesty averaged 3.6 yards per carry on the day, and his longest run was 14 yards. His longest career run is just 27 yards. It's true that starting running backs are rare commodities off the waiver wire and he's owned in just two percent of Yahoo! Leagues. So yes, grab him for your team to replace a player that's simply not getting opportunities. Understand thought that Richardson's MRI is going to have to be pretty damning for him to allow Hardesty another shot.


DALLAS @ BALTIMORE  
Bad coaching. I started talking about it last week with my friends, and wrote about it in my previews about being surprised that Tony Romo has sought out the likes of tertiary receivers like Philip Tanner when he's got such talent at the wide receiver positions. I also mentioned in my preview how the Cowboys have let the talented Felix Jones sit on the bench this year, much to the detriment of



Garrett is on the hot seat

their team. Say what you want about Jones' durability, or that he's let you down in fantasy, but he's the kind of back that can make big plays. He made one on Sunday, taking a handoff off the strong side edge for a 28-yard touchdown run. Dez Bryant made the kind of appearance that Dallas and NFL fans have been waiting for. The problem was, it was the plays he didn't make that were more important than the ones he made. Besides the drops, including the two point conversion that Romo put in his hands, for some reason with just 22 seconds left Bryant tried to argue with the referees about what appeared to be the spot of a catch. His delay, along with Romo trying to get a play called, seemed to unleash chaos. For some reason, the Cowboys offense seemed unprepared for such a scenario wherein they had moved into field goal range but had time left to improve their situation. With one timeout in the bank, they let the clock bleed down to the point where Dan Bailey was left with a 51-yard field goal – one that was clearly in his range – but he missed. And all that everyone who saw the game was left to do was throw their hands in the air and say how? How did the Cowboys thoroughly pop Baltimore in the mouth and come up short? I'm not one who advocates coaching changes at all, but this is a team without a leader on the sideline. 

DeMarco Murray sprained his foot, leaving an opening for Jones' value to increase fantasy wise. It should as long as he stays healthy. As for Baltimore, I see writers still mentioning how great the Ravens defense is. It isn't. It's very vulnerable, and the loss of LaDarius Webb for the season will simply be a pejorative. Nose Tackle Haloti Ngata's injury could also be crucial, as he's the pro bowler holding the center of that defensive line. However, nothing could cause more issue for the Ravens than the loss of LB Ray Lewis for the year. The Ravens won this game, but at a terrible cost. Terrell Suggs' return at some point this year will help, and the Ravens are no doubt a formidable team, but there are chinks in the armor. Still, you have to be impressed that through the most difficult portion of their schedule, the Raven are 5-1 and have a stranglehold on the AFC North.


DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA

Reid's solution to this debacle - fire
Juan Castillo.

The Eagles failed again to record another sack, Michael Vick threw his first interceptions of October, and the Philadelphia Eagles fell to 3-3. For just the third time in his career, Eagles RB LeSean McCoy was held to under two yards per carry. The Eagles defense was expected to be iconic this year, particularly after they finished last year so strong. So far they've managed just seven sacks in six games. Yes, it's conjoined with forcing seven interceptions, but the lack of late-game pressure on a quarterback as deadly as Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger has led to late game losses. Mikel LeShoure ran pretty well, averaging 4.7 per carry and giving you 94 all-purpose yards. Other than that, the numbers for Detroit still don't look so good. Sure Calvin Johnson got you six grabs for 135 yards, but didn't score. I don't think there's a defensive coordinator on the planet that wouldn't consider that a victory for his team. On third down, Detroit was 3-for-13. Stafford completed less than 50 percent of his passes this game. He's averaging less than seven yards per throw, and has one more interceptions than touchdowns. The good news is he wasn't sacked. However, six games into the season, he's giving fantasy owners a reason to be concerned that he' not only unlikely to duplicate last year's numbers, his TD total might not get within 10 of last year.



INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW YORK JETS
Plenty of pundits had the Jets winning this game, including me. However, even with the lack of a rushing attack I didn't see the Colts offense falling off the edge of the planet. Jets RB Shonn Greene not only had the best day of the season, but of his career, rushing for 161 yards and three scores. Bilal Powell's injury in the third quarter along with the loss of Joe McKnight to an ankle injury certainly did him some favors. Nevertheless, give Greene credit for running with a purpose in a must-win game for New York. The Jets now have two division games against the Patriots and then the Dolphins before their Week Nine bye. Keep also in mind that the Colts just fell to the 30^th ranked rushing defense, so Greene's accomplishments while solid, weren't against the defenses he faces next. The good news for Greene owners might be that he may be the only healthy runner, leaving him in line for more carries. However, if there ever was a time to sell high, this is it. If you're a 2-4 team, use the fact the Jets have three of their final four matchups against the likes of Buffalo, Jacksonville and Tennessee and see if you might not get a more useful back. Greene might actually have value in those final three weeks, but remember the key is making sure you get to the playoffs first before planning for them. As for Indianapolis, their offense ran the ball just 17 times with Vick Ballard garnering the most carries with eight. Remember Bruce Arians is now the head coach of this team, and Arians has never seen a pass he didn't want to throw, except maybe a screen. I'm still keeping an eye on Mewelde Moore, but nothing really got settled as to who is the new runner in Indianapolis after Sunday.

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY
The fans in KC wanted a change, so they got Brady Quinn.  He threw two costly interceptions, one that went for a touchdown.  Of course, the one that went for a touchdown appeared to hit Dexter McCluster in the hands, which is par for the course on most Kansas City turnovers.  Jamaal Charles wasn’t able to do much against Bill Sheridan's defense, so give the Bucs credit for taking away Kansas City's biggest weapon.  It didn't seem possible that in this game Charles would put up only 40 rushing yards, but wouldn't get a bunch of receiving opportunities.  Charles was targeted just three times and added seven receiving yards. While it's nice that Quinn was able to get Jon Baldwin and Steve Maneri involved, Maneri is not who you want listed as your leading receiver in the box score.  Dwayne Bowe had another line of nine targets and just three catches.  Bowe has managed to catch just 50 percent of his passes (34 of 66), explaining why he’s not more coveted as a WR1.  Kansas City's defense had done pretty welluntil Sunday, but Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson beat their secondary deep twice, and Josh Freeman played well enough on offense to keep his offense contributing.  Doug Martin received carries at a rate of 2-to-1 to LeGarrette Blount, and he gave you 126 all-purpose yards. 

MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON

Color me impressed. Robert Griffin III returned from a concussion and not only completed 17 of 22 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, but he ran for two scores, highlighting why he's not only dangerous as an NFL QB, but why he can be fantasy gold. He outran his top running back Alfred Morris by 88 yards. He finished 138 yards rushing on the evening, making him the second best fantasy scorer of Week Six, behind only Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota QB Christian Ponder may not have had a great game in terms of his team, but for fantasy owners he provided another 26 points. For his career Adrian Peterson had never gone more than three games without scoring a rushing TD. Sunday marked his fifth straight week without a score. I say if you can get a frustrated owner willing to sell, this is the time to get Peterson. He'll only get stronger as the year goes on, and even if he's going to face tough defenses, the reason Peterson is a stud is because he can perform against better defenses. I'd be willing to take my chances any day on an athletically gifted veteran like Peterson as we head into November. Tight end Kyle Rudolph scored for the second consecutive week and has five TDs on the year. He's quickly rising among the fantasy tight end ranks.

NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE
Never in the Bill Belichick era have the Patriots blown a fourth quarter lead as big as the one they blew Sunday. With 9:21 remaining in the fourth quarter, the Patriots were comfortably ahead of the Seahawks 23-10. Then, in one play the entire momentum of the game seemed to shift. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson completed a 52-yard strike to Doug Baldwin, and New England LB Brandon Spikes added an unnecessary roughness call to the play. Seattle went from sitting on its own 17 yard line to 1^st and 10 on the New England's 17. Two drives later, Wilson hit Sidney Rice for his biggest play as a Seahawks receiver, and the score was 24-23. In a game that required precision, Wilson didn't make the mistakes. Tom Brady did. Perhaps no mistake came back to haunt them more than late in the first half after Seattle muffed a punt that set the Patriots up 1^st and 10 at the Seattle 24. With 40 seconds left, and two timeouts left, this is normally the position from which New England buries their opponents. The Patriots failed to score, using both timeouts and on third down Brady was flagged for intentional grounding, bleeding the clockout. It had devastating repercussions in what would be a one point loss. Fantasy owners will want to know if this game makes Russell Wilson a quarterback worth considering. After all, Wilson finished in the top five of fantasy quarterbacks in Yahoo! Leagues with the Monday QBs still to play. However, in the last four weeks, Wilson is 21^st in terms of total fantasy points, and isn't even top 25 finisher in terms of average fantasy points in Yahoo! Leagues. The Seahawks were just 4-for-12 on third downs and only held the ball for 26 minutes. I'm leaving Wilson on the waiver wire, even though he's doing all the right things for Seattle. Of note, Brandon Bolden suffered a knee injury, so check the injury updates this week to see if he'll play in Sunday's game against the Jets.


NEW YORK GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO
In terms of making a statement in the NFL, none was heard more loudly and more clearly than the Giants in their blowout victory of San Francisco. Forget the fact that they won again in San Francisco. Forget the fact that 49ers QB Alex Smith had a very bad day in throwing three interceptions. Instead look at the fact that Giants' QB Eli Manning threw for just 193 yards and only one touchdown. The New York Giants didn't defeat San Francisco with any fancy, high-flying aerial show. In fact, the receiver who gained the most yards for the Giants was Domenik Hixon with just 87. The Giants beat San Francisco up front. Five guys whose names mean so little to most people watching football that they're never mentioned week in and week out: Sean Locklear, Chris Snee, David Baas, Kevin Booth and Will Beatty; the Giants offensive line knocked around DEs Justin Smith, and Ray McDonald. They knocked over LBs Patrick Willis, Ahmad Brooks, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. They ran right through NT Isaac Sapoaga. There was nothing the 49ers could do. On defense the Giants simply removed the 49ers leading receiver Vernon Davis from the equation with constant double-teams. And they blitzed Smith over and over, constantly taking him out of his rhythm. The Giants had eight total sacks as they entered Week Six. They left with 14.  

There is one thing to note that could be important in the future. The Giants forced three interceptions from Alex Smith, two of which were returned to within 12 yards of the goal line or closer. Both times the Giants managed only a field goal, keeping the 49ers in the game. That does not bode well should a rematch occur in the playoffs. Fantasy wise, Ahmad Bradshaw finally looks healthy and is running as such, but if San Francisco hadn't been so thoroughly outplayed this game, there's little doubt that Manning would have spent much of the game throwing. While Bradshaw had his second 100-yard game in as many weeks, I'm not putting a lot of stock in him for the future. He's another sell high candidate considering the Giants tendency to throw and Bradshaw's injury history. You need to make note of David Wilson's speed in his 63-yard kick return to open the second half, as well as his runs later in the game. Should Bradshaw falter, and knowing Bradshaw's history that wouldn't be surprising, you're watching his fill-in. If you're in one of those in leagues where Wilson was thrown to the waiver wire grab him, if for no other reason than you'll have a guy Week 16 or 17 who could be the starter as the Giants rest Bradshaw for the playoffs. 

   
OAKLAND @ ATLANTA
Oh, how the Raiders could have had this game. The Atlanta Falcons didn't so much beat the Raiders as the old penalty-prone Raiders beat themselves. Darren McFadden only ended up with 70 yards rushing in the box score, but he must have run for well over 100. The Raiders were flagged 12 times for 125 yards, and McFadden fumbled away an early opportunity, allowing the Falcons off the hook. However, McFadden's yardage totals matched my expectations to a tee. What made Oakland competitive this week was they brought a pass rush. Matt Ryan certainly didn't have one of his sharpest days, but the Oakland rush caused an interception in the third quarter, hitting Ryan as he threw. The Falcons managed just 15 rushing attempts, which isn't surprising considering their weapons in the passing attack and the fact Michael Turner hasn't had a quick start. Yet, Oakland's rushing defense held Atlanta's runners to just three yards per carry. Carson Palmer played the near perfect game, until that fourth quarter interception. Falcons CB Assante Samuel, who had been beaten early on a similar route, baited Palmer, who bit for the costliest mistake of the game. Darius Heyward-Bey had only two targets and both came after his end around run where he took a good shot. It makes you wonder if the Raiders were being cautious with him, or he just did a Heyward-Bey disappearing act. Denarius Moore really had a stellar game, and returned after taking a huge shot. However, his durability already in question, he didn't renew my faith that he can survive a whole season after being shaken up on that clean hit.

ST. LOUIS @ MIAMI
I almost nailed a score for the second time in three weeks. St. Louis was totally dependent on Sam Bradford, and though Bradford threw for 315 yards and rushed for a score late in the fourth quarter, he just didn't deliver. Rams WR Brandon Gibson did step up for seven grabs and 91 yards, and Chris Givens was targeted deep. However neither could make the plays count for seven. Something to note is that rookie RB Daryl Richardson got 11 carries and outran Steven Jackson. Jackson got 12 carries and performed well with his 52 yards, but Jackson owners should be looking to get Richardson soon. Sell Jackson high if he has a great performance because Richardson's 6.4 yard per carry average against the top rated rush defense will not go unrecognized. Perhaps the most perplexing thing about this game is Dolphins RB Lamar Miller's absence. Reggie Bush struggled mightily in this one on the ground, managing an uncharacteristic 1.4 yards per carry with 12 yards on 17 carries. Yet Miller was got zero carries. Bush was the second leading target for QB Ryan Tannehill. Davone Bess was the top target getter, garnering nine and bringing in six. However, it was Marlon Moore, the undrafted third year man out of Fresno State, who added three receptions to his career six and as well as one for a touchdown, Tannehill's third passing TD of the year. He'd add his fourth to tight end Anthony Fasano. What should be taken from this game is that the once receiving yardage leader, Brian Hartline, put up a doughnut. Not a single target, and thus, no receptions.


SUNDAY NIGHT GAME
GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON
Much like LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster had only three games in his career where he averaged less than two yards per carry. He added a fourth on Sunday, and as goes Foster, so go the Texans. His 29 rushing yards might have wrecked your fantasy week, except this is Arian Foster, the touchdown machine. He scored twice and added 12 more yards receiving. And while 16 points on an off day was nice, this day belonged to Aaron Rodgers. For five weeks the Green Bay Packers have been out of sync and the big play eluded them. On Sunday, Rodgers threw six touchdown passes, three to Jordy Nelson, who brought his fantasy season back to respectable in one night. I'm not recommending selling high on Nelson, as the thought did cross my mind. However, with Greg Jennings out and Jermichael Finley playing through an injury, he's now the top receiver in an Aaron Rodgers offense. Sorry, I'm not selling that guy just six games into the season. Green Bay's offensive output was a surprise. I was willing to recommend playing the Texans defense because Aaron Rodgers had been sacked the second most of any quarterback in the league. J. J. Watt added two sacks, and a few QB hits, but for the first time, Houston didn't look so unbeatable. Also, Green Bay RB Alex Green had a pretty decent game in his first start. While his yards per carry weren't anything to write home about, this was against Houston, and where he differs from someone like Montario Hardesty is that opportunities often dictate waiver wire pickups such as Green. He's going to get plenty of them.


MONDAY NIGHT GAME
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO
For a half of football, the Chargers showed that they were to be taken seriously. Their offense capitalized on Denver special teams mistakes. Their defense hit hard and prevented Peyton Manning's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. Then halftime arrived. The team that emerged from the halftime cave was still in hibernation, as the Chargers reminded us why we all had questions about them to this point. Their competition had been less than stellar, and when faced with Peyton Manning standing across the line of scrimmage down 24, the Chargers folded like a house of cards. Demaryius Thomas only had two catches but one was for a score. 

Gates is a strong sell high candidate

Thomas only has two touchdowns this year, but remember, he should have two more. That might not help your fantasy team any, but fumbles aside, the intent is to use Thomas as a big play guy with Manning throwing the ball. (See: Nelson, Jordy, for my thoughts on selling). For the Chargers, we finally had an Antonio Gates sighting. Here is a case where if I could get the right deal I'd consider letting Gates go. Look, those won't be the only two touchdowns he scores this year, but Gates is an aging entity that has a high probability of injury.  His name recognition is second to none, so if you can use this game to get a package of a better QB, or even a more targeted tight end like Vernon Davis, or a more solid starting RB like C.J. Spiller, I'd go for it.  Besides, there are replacements available.  If you're paying attention, Joel Dreeseen is available in 95 percent of ESPN leagues and is ranked 20^th among tight ends. He has three touchdowns that past four games, and for the last four weeks has averages over nine points per week. He has become Manning's red zone tight end, not Jason Tamme.

NFL WEEK 6 – MATCHUPS & BREAKDOWNS

The NFL is a bit topsy-turvy right now to say the least. Defenses that were once associated with being mighty stingy may still be so in terms of points, but are suddenly giving away yards like they're real estate developers. Then there are the teams that have yielded a lot of points on defense, but they are actually better defenses in terms of preventing sustainable drives. Offenses once identified with throwing the ball are still doing so, but are having more success on the ground. Some teams are putting up winning records despite large negative point differentials. Others are barely scraping the .500 mark while putting up huge amounts of points per game. How is this possible? Well, that's why you're here. Keep reading.



THE 1PM DOCKET

CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND
The 0-5 Browns began their season on a last second loss the Philadelphia Eagles. It was one of those sour notes that have since become an opus for their entire season. The piece could be entitled, Oh, so close. In Week Two, in what became an unexpected battle of the quarterbacks, Bengals QB Andy Dalton completed three touchdown passes to three different receivers, with two of those touchdowns greater than 40 yards. We were introduced to the Bengals new quartet of receivers, including A. J. Green's future compliment, and it wasn't Brandon Tate, though he did score a touchdown. It was Andrew Hawkins, who made a fantastic run after the catch that became a 50 yard touchdown. In just his second week as the Browns' starter, rookie Brandon Weeden threw for over 300 yards, including two touchdowns. We were introduced to the Browns lack of receivers, though Mohamed Massaquoi had what appeared to be a statement game with five receptions on seven targets for 90 yards. More importantly, Trent Richardson announced his arrival in the NFL with 145 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. However, the Bengals escaped the feisty Browns in Week Two and the difference was a punt return for a touchdown by Adam "Pacman" Jones.

Joe Haden returns Sunday

This time, the Bengals head to Cleveland, where they are 6-3 in Cleveland since Marvin Lewis became their head coach. Their secondary is banged up and they're allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5 percent of their passes. However, the Bengals are also tied for the NFL lead with 18 sacks. The Browns bring an improving defense of their own, having allowed just three rushing TDs (two came last week), and return CB Joe Haden from a suspension of four games. The last time Haden took the field was Week One versus Philadelphia. In that game, he had six tackles, one pass defensed and an interception. Cleveland can only wonder what might have been Haden's impact had he been around the last four weeks. His task will be to shut down one of the league's elite receivers A. J. Green. Green will find the road tough going, and Dalton is likely to have to rely more on Andrew Hawkins, Jermaine Gresham and Armon Binns. Fantasy wise, you can't bench Green, but don't be surprised if the end zone is foreign territory this week.  Cincinnati runner BenJarvus Green-Ellis garnered 21 carries in his first meeting with the Browns. He should get his fair share Sunday, but his yards per carry has been suddenly shrinking. Granted, Washington and Miami's defenses have turned out to be strong against the run, but the Jaguars defense is putrid, against which Green-Ellis managed just 3.2 yards per carry on 26 touches. He's also lost three fumbles in the last three weeks. While the Browns rushing defense is giving up more yardage, and has sunk from 19^th to 26^th overall, I still see in the neighborhood of 90 yards on 18-22 carries for Green-Ellis this week. In all likelihood, it will be up to Dalton to try to push Cincinnati over the pylons and with Haden back, it won't be as easy. For Cleveland, expect Trent Richardson, who has yet to make 20 attempts in a game, to finally cross that barrier. Favor Richardson in the battle of the ground games, as he has scored once in each of the last four weeks. He'll pay off with another 100-yard day. Though Weeden has few weapons, Josh Gordon has begun to assert himself more in the offense and has a greater opportunity here. While he's caught just nine balls of the 22 sent his way, last week he scored twice and tallied 82 receiving yards. That in itself might help free up Greg Little, who again is your best bet fantasy wise with Massaquoi and Travis Benjamin both unlikely to play.

Three things will decide this game: whether the Browns continue to kill themselves with penalties, which team can keep their quarterback upright, and the differences in the teams' secondaries. The Browns offensive line has protected Weeden to the tune of just nine sacks. Dalton has been felled 15 times. The Browns have picked off seven passes, six of which came without Haden at the helm. The Bengals have forced just one interception. Even with his lack of weapons, Brandon Weeden will find some time to throw, and Cleveland's own fierce pass rush (13 sacks on the year) will create some havoc. Expect a lower scoring game, as the weather calls for a storm, and the Browns will prevail for the first time this season.

BROWNS 21, BENGALS 17



KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY
The Kansas City fans were excoriated by one of their own, as OT Eric Winston heard the boos as an injured Matt Cassel left last Sunday's game with a concussion and gave the NFL a juicy post game interview. Cassel certainly hasn't played very well, and except his performance against the Saints, has turned the ball over 14 times, including five lost fumbles. This week, Brady Quinn gets a chance to revive his status from first round bust, and his job is simple; stop the bleeding on offense. The Chiefs offense has been reckless all season long, and Cassel hasn't been the sole offender. Of the 145 points the Kansas City defense has given up, more than one-third, 58 points, have come as a result of a turnover. With both Peyton Hillis and Shaun Draughn limited in practice this week, RB Jamaal Charles will see his workload continue to increase. The Chiefs offensive line has done well in their zone blocking scheme instituted by Brian Daboll. However, their pass protection has been awful. Quinn is much more pocket wary than Cassel is, and will likely run a short-passing offense, in an effort to keep Tampa Bay from blitzing. The Buccaneers pass defense is ranked worst in the league, though they've given up only four touchdowns through the air. Basically, this adds up to very little Dwayne Bowe, and more Charles, Dexter McCluster, and maybe Tony Moeaki, though from a fantasy standpoint, you can no longer expect much from the Chiefs tight end. Daboll's offense has targeted their tight ends just 25 times in 178 passes.

The Chiefs defense ironically is improving. Now ranked tenth overall, sans the plethora of points against them, yardage wise they are ranked tenth in the league, with a greater propensity to stop the pass (eighth). Josh Freeman hasn't truly recovered from his sophomore slump either. He's completing fewer than 55 percent of his passes for a 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt average. No doubt, the matchup that matters most here is Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount against the Chief 22^nd ranked rush defense. Martin has become the team's bell-cow, but he hasn't supplied fantasy owners with anything more than RB3/flex type numbers. He's averaging 3.5 yards per carry, has just one touchdown and averages 62 yards per contest. He only has eight receptions through four games. Coming off the Bye Week, Martin will be well rested, and he will get 20 carries on Sunday to try to loosen up the Kansas City secondary. With Brandon Flowers likely to be draped over boom/bust receiver Vincent Jackson, expect Mike Williams, who is coming off his best game of the season, to continue to build on that. He's a better set of hands generally, and is used to move the chains more. Tiquan Underwood, who caught all three of his targets two weeks ago, may also factor in, alongside Arrelious Benn. Jackson may get a shot at the end zone, but in most cases, I'm playing other receivers over Tampa Bay's this weekend. Even once you consider that Josh Freeman has been particularly average at home, posting a 9-13 record, a 59 percent completion percentage and a 28:23 TD/Interception ratio, it's incredibly hard to imagine Quinn leading the Chiefs to a victory here. Jamaal Charles is the only Chief I'd start, and he'll have solid numbers. Doug Martin is worth playing because of how many carries he should get, and Blount may mop up on red zone duty. Expect a low scoring matchup with Tampa Bay eventually outlasting Kansas City.


BUCCANNERS 13, CHIEFS 10



OAKLAND @ ATLANTA
No doubt survival poolers looked at this game and thought lock of the week, which is of course what makes this game scary. You have a 5-0 Falcons team facing a 1-4 Oakland team. The Falcons defense is supposedly on the rise, yet though they give up few points, they give up a ridiculous 5.4 yards per attempt on the ground. Teams have begun to sniff that out as the Falcons are now facing rushes 44 percent of the time. Guess who hasn't had a big explosive day yet, the kind of day you've been waiting for out of him since your fantasy draft? Yes, Raiders RB Darren McFadden, who hasn't really looked himself this year, gets a shot in the Georgia Dome, and considering Carson Palmer's arsenal of receivers, common sense says McFadden will get a lot of opportunities. However, this year McFadden is averaging just 2.3 yards per carry, and last year on turf, he averaged just 3.6. Worse still, McFadden has averaged one yard per carry from 11 carries on. This may be fancy numbers play, but McFadden has had foot problems, and his offensive line isn't exactly stellar. The Raiders are having runs stuffed 11 percent of the time too. This week, McFadden is likely to meet you in the middle, getting approximately 15-20 carries and providing 80 yards and a touchdown. Since his 13 reception debut this season, McFadden has just five over the last three games, so expect a slight uptick there, but not much more than 30 more yards. Oakland has a scoring differential of minus 58, and simply can't finish their drives. This is a case where Atlanta's offense, ranked 12^th overall, but seventh in passing, will simply take it to the Raiders defense. The Falcons have 13 passing TDs, second best in the league. Matt Ryan is having his best year so far, and with two physical targets such as Julio Jones and Roddy White downfield, why shouldn't he? The Falcons were 9-17 on third down last week, and behind the Steelers, are second best in the NFL with a third down conversion rate of 48.5 percent. Matt Ryan's only appearance again Oakland was in his rookie campaign in 2008 and resulted in 220 yards and two scores, along with a completion rate of 77 percent. Although Carson Palmer has never thrown an interception against Atlanta and sports a passer rating of 112.5 against them, don't count on that kind of security here. Darius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore are both healthy for a change, but Atlanta's secondary, anchored by off-season acquisition Thomas DeCoud and William Moore have taken key targets out of each game. Atlanta's Moore was limited in practice earlier this week but if he can't go they have great depth in veteran strong safety Chris Hope. Of Atlanta's five passing touchdowns they've ceded, only one WR1, Denver's Demaryius Thomas, has found the end zone. Expect Denarius Moore to be removed from the equation, and Heyward Bey to give you five or six receptions for around 60 yards. Palmer will likely find Brandon Myers more often than not, so he could be a solid PPR play this week if you're looking for a fill-in.

The Raiders have generated just three sacks in four games. Expect the Falcons to throw on the Raiders until Oakland has to abandon the running game, and a couple of crucial turnovers will plague the Raiders on the road. Ryan is in line for another 300 yard performance, with White and Jones being great fantasy plays. Both could score this week, and Tony Gonzalez is in for yet another touchdown grab as Oakland has given up four passing TDs to opposing tight ends. Michael Turner might see his yardage increase in garbage time, so even though Oakland has given up 100 yards twice this year to lead running backs, Turner may do it only after Atlanta slows the pace and bleeds the clock. Book him for close to 100 yards. Sans the Steelers game, the Raiders have managed just 33 points in their other three games, and just 19 on the road. This one is not going to be that close.

FALCONS 34, RAIDERS 13




ST. LOUIS @ MIAMI
To say the season is going swimmingly for the St. Louis Ram isn't hyperbole. The Rams are 3-2 and are the only team that is 2-0 amongst divisional foes. Despite losing his Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams to a suspension, Jeff Fisher's defense is ranked 14^th overall. They now have 15 sacks on the season, nine of which came last week at Arizona. Despite having an offense ranked 29^th, the Rams have a postiive point differential over their opponents of plus two and have stayed competitive in every game but one. If you had glanced at the schedule prior to the season's start, you'd have been hard pressed to buy into the idea that this game would be the one to test the Rams' mettle. The Dolphins have the 15^th ranked defense and 13^th ranked offense. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill hasn't lit up scoreboards with touchdown passes, but has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt and made Brian Hartline the leading yardage receiver in the NFL.

The Dolphins will attempt to run hopefully healed Reggie Bush and rookie speedster Lamar Miller into a Rams defense that stuffs such plays over 12 percent of the time. It's not that the 'Fins are worried about Sam Bradford's offense as much as the Dolphins average over five yards per carry at home and have a 27^th ranked pass defense. Expect Bush to get nearly 20 carries if his knees can handle it, with Lamar Miller taking over for the concussed Daniel Thomas. Miller has yet to catch a pass this year, but with a blitzing defense like the Rams, he and Bush will be sent out in to the flat to foil the quick rush and get especially Miller into space. Bush is likelier to get the goal line duties with Thomas out, making him an even stronger play against a St. Louis defense which has yielded six rushing touchdowns. Only tight ends have found the end zone via the air against St. Louis (and that's twice – a correction from last week), but TE Anthony Fasano has just one touchdown this year. Fullback Jorvorskie Lane is the more likely candidate to vulture a red zone score. Even though Brian Hartline is Tannehill's top target, I don't see the Rams allowing him a touchdown. He'll get 5-6 catches and 50 yards, but not much more. If anything Davone Bess might pull a quick slant for a big play, and he's a better fantasy play of the receivers, but no more than a flex at best. For St. Louis fans, if you've been waiting for the day where Sam Bradford will have to carry the team on his shoulders to victory, that day has arrived. The Dolphins hold the top rated rush defense and yield a 2.7 yard per carry average. Steven Jackson is underperforming Daryl Richardson, but the Rams have seven million reasons to continue to start Jackson. I expect that Richardson, averaging a full yard per carry more than Jackson, will see a few extra carries this week, but it won't make the difference. With leading WR Danny Amendola expected to miss anywhere from 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury, Bradford's going to have to execute Brian Schottenheimer's "Coryell" offense with precise passes, setting up mismatches for Brandon Gibson, and newly found threat Chris Givens. The past two games has seen Givens deliver a 50-yard touchdown reception in each one. He has just four receptions on 15 targets, but don't think they won't attack with Givens against this Dolphins secondary. Tight end Lance Kendricks will be used to move the chains, along with Austin Pettis, and Gibson is a possible WR3 this week in deep leagues. Givens is a calculated gamble, but not one I'd make considering the Rams only average 183 passing yards per game. At home, the Dolphins will control the clock as they own a 41.3 percent 3^rd down conversion rate, and Tannehill will make just enough plays to keep take the Dolphins to .500. Bradford should have his best passing totals of the season, but I don't expect more than a two touchdowns. Turnovers will play a huge role in this one, and though Tannehill is more likely to make the mistake against this aggressive Rams defense, I expect Bradford's will be more costly.


DOLPHINS 17, RAMS 13


INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW YORK JETS

Dustin Keller could be the difference maker.

The Vegas odds-makers are taking the Jets, pitting the fans over-reaction to the loss of a few Jets players, as well as the exhausting emotional win by Indy over Green Bay last week as reasons the Jets will take this one at home. It is possible, though the only reason is because the Colts find their depth at running back compromised. Colts RB Donald Brown has found his way onto the injury report, and he's out two to three weeks after knee surgery. This, and not the fact that Indianapolis is emotionally spent over one game is a huge problem. Vick Ballard is listed atop the Colts depth chart right now, but is averaging just two yards per carry. Delone Carter will likely get some backup action, but he hasn't touched the ball this year, and didn't impress much when he did. So don't be surprised if Mewelde Moore gets a chunk of carries. He's a veteran who is very capable of putting up solid numbers, not to mention he is a very solid pass protector. I'm monitoring Moore with interest. Reggie Wayne will match up against Antonio Cromartie and Wayne will get his points. Bruce Arians has QB Andrew Luck playing with confidence and will not spare a Jets team that has generated just five sacks. Luck is a better QB at home with a 6:2 TD:INT ratio versus a 1:3 on the road, and the Jets are allowing a league worst 48.6 percent conversion rate on third down. Passing offenses like the Steelers ate them up, so expect Arians to take it to the Jets defense with some no-huddle, and more involvement from T. Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery. Three of the Jets six passing TDs allowed have gone to TEs, but neither Coby Fleener nor Dwayne Allen have been spectacular. Allen has two red zone touchdowns this year, so my guess is that Fleener will get his first score this week. As for the Jets, this could be a game where Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell factor big, as the

Colts give up 4.7 yards per carry. At home, expect this to be one of Greene's best days, even though he has yet to carry 20 times in a game. He started slow last year, and picked it up right around this time. Greene and Powell should combine for 170 rushing yards, with Greene topping 100 for the first time. The other big news this week is the return of Mark Sanchez's favorite target, TE Dustin Keller. Keller's return will put pressure on the Colts new 3-4 and could cause some big problems for them in coverage. Expect Sanchez to seek Keller out when plays break down, so that could be often. Stephen Hill could rejoin the Jets receivers group, making life a little easier for Jeremy Kerley. Though you'd think this game would be a constant battle of mistakes, I think the scoring in this one could get out of hand. It comes down who has the ball last and who makes the stop. I think the Jets will have to rely on Nick Folk in the end he'll deliver.


JETS 31, COLTS 28



DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA
The Detroit Lions haven't much been themselves this year, which is to say offensively they appear lost and defensively they are improving. Now the ninth ranked defensive unit in the NFL, they've allowed just six touchdowns in their four games. Yet, they've given up 114 total points, meaning they're doing a good job stopping drives short, but not keeping teams from tallying something for their efforts. They meet a Philadelphia team which has the eighth ranked unit, and one that has held opposing quarterbacks to a meager 55 percent completion rate. The last time these two teams met, it was a shootout, with Philadelphia relying on the legs of LeSean McCoy, and the Lions QB Shaun Hill throwing for 335 yards and two scores. Jahvid Best carried the load for Detroit and scored three times, as did McCoy. Brandon Pettigrew had his first ever game with over 100 receiving yards, while Calvin Johnson and Jeremy Maclin each scored with minimal yardage. Has much changed? The big difference this year is the alacrity with which each quarterback is turning the ball over. Vick's fumble problems are becoming legend, and he is now solely responsible for 11 turnovers. Matthew Stafford has a 3:4 TD:INT ratio. By this time last year, Stafford had thrown 12 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

The biggest problem for the Eagles has been pass protection, though a lot of that falls on Vick as well. He's been sacked 14 times this season, and is completing just 58 percent of his passes. However, ten of those sacks have come on the road, and Vick has started October off better, completing 67 percent of his passes. Vick is more successful if he doesn't have to throw over 30 passes. When he attempts 31 passes or more he completes just 40 percent for a 4.09 average attempt. As such, LeSean McCoy will get plenty of opportunities against Detroit's 13^th ranked rushing defense. For his career, McCoy averages exactly the same at home as he does on the road, and considering what he did to Detroit last time these two teams met (120 yards, 3TDs) you can bet Philadelphia will deploy him all over the field in an effort to take some pressure off Vick. He'll give you 100 yards rushing and another 25 receiving, not to mention a score. When Vick does throw, he's generally looking for his favorite target Jeremy Maclin. Detroit has had more trouble guarding tight ends, and Brent Celek, the team leader with eight plays over 20 yards, is an obvious choice here to start and get you a score with 60-70 receiving yards.

Detroit has the best red zone defense, and with Vick's inability to often finish drives, Alex Henery should be a solid start as well. Detroit's biggest problem is their special teams, which has allowed six returns for touchdowns in just four games. They'll do everything they can to control the ball in this one, and Mikel LeShoure will get plenty of opportunities to help move the ball. With WR Titus Young possibly falling out of favor in this offense, expect Calvin Johnson to get plenty of targets, especially if Brandon Pettigrew is unable to go. Johnson will see at least 12 passes throw his way, but will likely bring in about 5-6 for nearly 100 yards. Two weeks ago, RB Joique Bell led all receivers with 72 yards on eight targets and six catches. His 16 targets ties him with Young and his 175 receiving yards are good for fourth best on the team. Nate Burleson will have to factor as the Eagles try to take away Megatron.

The Eagles haven't had any luck returning kicks this year, though they'll certainly test Detroit. Yet with the Lions coming into Philly well rested, and the odd fact that Matthew Stafford is a better quarterback on the road, and on grass, and in the 4^th quarter, the Eagles propensity to play loosely with the ball will kill them. Stafford gets back in the groove, throws for 220 yards, two scores and no interceptions while LeShoure adds a touchdown run.

LIONS 30, EAGLES 23
  

DALLAS @ BALTIMORE

Romo's offense will get in sync soon.

It's easy to have a visceral reaction to this game after Tony Romo's five interceptions against the Bears two weeks ago. It appears like a one-sided blowout for Baltimore. After all, Dallas is minus seven in the give/take this year, and the offense is flailing in mediocrity. Baltimore's defense has always been their defining characteristic; a Ray Lewis-led defense won't give much ground right? For the 4-1 Ravens, this year, that's not really the truth. Their 24^th ranked defense is giving up 380 yards per contest. That in itself could be surprising enough, but the fact they're ranked 23^rd against the pass, giving up 261 yards per contest doesn't speak well for them in this matchup. Sure the Cowboys have been a mess. Dez Bryant was supposed to dominate opposing DBs this year, but instead has managed zero touchdowns of his 21 catches and 269 yards. Jason Witten's spleen injury left him playing through pain for each of the first few weeks. Miles Austin has been as injury prone as Ryan Mathews, though he's started this year off right, with three touchdowns of his 18 receptions DeMarco Murray may be running at 3.9 yards per carry and have 16 catches for 114 yards, but he hasn't made any of the game-breaking type plays that defined him last year. Jason Garrett has stayed with him leaving Felix Jones inopportune times to tote the ball. Jones has just three carries on the season. Romo has completed a pass to 13 different receivers this year, which actually adds to the problem. Should guys like Witten, Bryant and Austin be ceding receptions to Kevin Ogletree, Philip Tanner and John Phillips? Let's face it, the Cowboys have underperformed at the skill positions maybe more so than any other team.

There lies the rub. At some point this team is going to chew on someone like a starving child at a smorgasbord. All signs point to a chance it's the Ravens. Despite Romo's eight interceptions this year, he's passing at a 67 percent clip, and 70 percent on first or second down. His QB rating on the road is 97.4, with four passing touchdowns against two interceptions and over an eight yard average. DeMarco Murray runs at a 5.5 yards per carry average on the road so far. The Ravens Joe Flacco does indeed play way better at home, completing 67.5 percent of his passes versus just 50 percent on the road. However, the Dallas pass defense is ranked best in the league, and when you combine that with Baltimore's pretty mundane 33% third down conversion rate, alongside the fact they are the second most penalized team on offense, Baltimore could struggle to sustain their drives. The Cowboys also return starters Jay Ratliff and Kenyon Martin to their defensive line. It's Ratliff's first game of the year. The game plan for Baltimore will center on Ray Rice, who has never faced Dallas. Both he and Bernard Pierce average over five yards per carry, and their job will be to keep Flacco throwing on shorter down situations. Rice should be able to find space and provide a top five day. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin could make life difficult for the Dallas secondary. Expect Smith to find the end zone, while Boldin gives you decent yardage. I'm skeptical they won't overlook Dallas and falter.

You remember how Dallas went into New York this year and beat the Giants. Well to give you further evidence that supports Romo as actually having a clutch gene – when the game is within seven points either way in the fourth quarter, Romo is a perfect 12-for-12 and posts an overall fourth quarter completion percentage of almost 78 percent. Romo rushes for one score and throws two others. Murray adds a couple of big plays and the Cowboys cause more head-scratching among the NFL team rankings.

 

DALLAS 30, BALTIMORE 23

 

 

THE 4PM DOCKET

 

MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON

Perhaps the biggest surprise of this young season is the 4-1 Minnesota Vikings. Shocking further is that they've done it without RB Adrian Peterson scoring since Week One. They've done it with Christian Ponder playing smart football, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes and six touchdowns against two interceptions. They've done it with special teams and defense. The Vikings have allowed just 79 points, and a total of seven touchdowns in five games. Against Washington's defense, Ponder will have to do his fair share again, as the Redskins allow just 88 yards per game on the ground. However, their air defense is ranked 31^st and has given up 13 passing touchdowns. I'm not only playing Percy Harvin, but Michael Jenkins and Kyle Rudolph. The Redskins haven't allowed a 100-yard runner all year long, and I don't expect that to change against their solid front seven, even with Adrian Peterson. However, Peterson could give you 100 all-purpose yards when you add another four catches for 40 more yards. Don't be surprised if Peterson finds pay dirt through the air.

Minnesota also hasn't allowed any rusher to reach 100 yards and have shut down the likes of Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Chris Johnson. So despite the fact Redskins RB Alfred Morris has 100 yards games in back-to-back weeks, the first Redskins back since Clinton Portis in 2008 to do so, taper thoughts of such an outing here. Robert Griffin III returns from a concussion, which is never a good thing. Concussed players, if not given the right amount of time to heal, often can't keep up with the speed of a game. That's not to say he's not cleared by the doctors, but I'm reminded of a similar situation in 2006 where Ben Roethlisberger returned after a concussion he threw four interceptions into a weak Oakland secondary. Minnesota's Achilles heel might be the deep ball, and that makes Leonard Hankerson a possible deep touchdown target. Pierre Garcon had a setback with his foot, leaving him questionable for Sunday. As such, Santana Moss, who has two touchdowns in the past two weeks, becomes the best option if Garcon can't go. He and Griffin seem to be finding each other more and more, and post injury, Griffin may want to keep the ball shorter with some trusted hands. Fred Davis has had a minimum of four catches while averaging 70 yards the last three weeks. He'll get you his first touchdown this week. However, in this game I trust Ponder more than Griffin, and Adrian Peterson more than Alfred Morris.


MINNESOTA 20, WASHINGTON 16




BUFFALO @ ARIZONA
The last time the Bills saw the Cardinals, it was 2008 and they were 4-0 and optimistic about a trip to face 2-2 Arizona. The Bills would slide to an 8-8 finish while the 9-7 Cardinals would make a Super Bowl run. At 4-1, the Cardinals are looking for a reprise of that season, and have already put down a few strong teams, giving them credence in the NFC West as front runner. This year, the 2-3 Bills had greater hopes, especially after signing Mario Williams away from the Texans for $100 million. It was expected that putting their contract star opposite second year man Marcell Dareus would push the Bills to the next step in their evolution. Even when they lost starting RB Fred Jackson as the season started, C. J. Spiller didn't miss a beat, stepping in and taking over as the Bills top runner. Then the wheels fell off. After moving out to a 2-1 record, they ran into two of the top teams in both conferences. San Francisco and New England dropped 97 points in two games on them. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the most protected QBs in the league, having been sacked just five times in five games. For all that time, Fitzpatrick has made too many mistakes with the football. He's thrown eight interceptions to go with his 12 touchdowns. The Arizona defense can cause all sorts of problems, as they sack opposing QBs nearly nine percent of the time they drop back to throw. They also have given up just one rushing touchdown on the year, and it was to Jorvorskie Lane of Miami of all people. For the first time in awhile though both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller aren't listed on the injury report, and you can bet Buffalo will try to get those two going. Again, this week should see Spiller post better numbers because of his catching ability in space. Where Arizona has also shown vulnerability is deep. Not that Fitzpatrick throws the best deep ball, but both Brian Hartline and Chris Givens were able to take long balls to the house. So expect Donald Jones to get a shot deep. Stevie Johnson will likely be paired up against Patrick Peterson, and I don't like his chances for a big play or a score. Arizona will start RB William Powell, a guy who worked at Best Buy
all of a few years ago. He may look like a stud this week against the Bills 30^th ranked rushing defense, but I'm not investing in anyone running in Arizona. Kevin Kolb will have to shoulder the load on this one, and the only problem there is that he's been sacked 22 times. If the Bills generate any sort of a pass rush, this game could get very interesting. Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day, and I wouldn't be concerned about playing Andre Roberts either, who Kolb took another shot at deep last week in St. Louis. While I don't think the Bills are as bad as they appear defensively, they aren't very good either. New England and San Francisco are elite teams this year and the Bills are not healthy. Even with the Bills defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, this game won't be an easy one for Kolb because of his now one-dimensional offense and tattered offensive line. However, the Cardinals are opportunistic in causing turnovers, and perhaps Powell will channel his inner Samkon Gado for a weekend and surprise us all.

CARDINALS 17, BILLS 14




NEW YORK GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO
The Giants have won four out of the last five matchups between these two teams dating back to January 2005. This includes a 20-17 overtime win in the NFC Championship last year. This year, the Giants defense isn't generating quite the pass rush they were last year. They've sacked opposing quarterbacks just eight times, and have allowed 111 points on the year, including eight passing touchdowns. The visiting Giants may have Ahmad Bradshaw coming off a 200-yard rushing performance, but WR Hakeem Nicks is playing Sunday, and the Giants will attack early on with he, Victor Cruz and Domenik Hixon. They'll attempt to take San Francisco out of their top rated rushing offense and push the onus on Alex Smith to beat them. Martellus Bennett has three touchdowns already this year, and San Francisco has given up 60 percent of their passing touchdowns to tight ends. Bear Pascoe took one in last year, but it's Bennett who Manning will look for first. The Niners will do what they've been doing – rush Frank Gore and control the clock at home, making precision passes to TE Vernon Davis, and using Michael Crabtree when they need a possession play to move the sticks. If you have Mario Manningham, insert him here. I have little doubt after his tete-a-tete with Kevin Gilbride this week Jim Harbaugh is going to milk Manningham for every piece of information and then send Manningham to the best day of his season. Expect them to come after Eli Manning and pressure him into making a bad throw. Victor Cruz had 142 yards last year against San Francisco and this game won't be much different. Bradshaw won't have near the output this week, being held under 100 yards and without a score. And though Manning will throw for close to 300 yards and a few scores, the Niners are going to get to him like they did last year, force a few turnovers and take themselves to 5-1.


49ers 25, GIANTS 21



NEW ENGLAND @ SEATTLE
The Seattle Seahawks have never had Tom Brady on their home turf, and sporting the top rated defense, they're hoping to make it a long day on top of a long trip for New England. The problem for Seattle is that New England's strong rushing defense plays against their strength. Marshawn Lynch has been the leader of this team this year, rushing 113 times for 4.5 per carry and two scores. He's averaged just over four yards per carry for his career against the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Patriots pass defense is ranked 29^th, having been scorched by Peyton Manning, which dropped them sixteen spots in the rankings in one week. Russell Wilson has thrown five touchdown passes against six interceptions, but he's had five of his six interceptions in the last two weeks. His leading receiver is Sidney Rice with only 17 receptions, and Rice has just one play over 20 yards. Three of his touchdown passes have been to Golden Tate, who has just 10 receptions on the year. The passing offense is dead last in yards per game and Seattle's longest pass play of the year is 41 yards. Which aspect of Seattle's offense do you think Bill Belichick is going to take away? One thing to note though: the Patriots are without safety Steve Gregory, a key component to this year's pass defense. Thus, Tate is set to have another big play downfield, and Wilson will give him a shot. The Patriots will have to find a way to use Stevan Ridley, the fourth rated fantasy back in ESPN standard leagues, as well as his cohort Brandon Bolden. The rush will be key to setting up play-action for Brady to throw downfield to his tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. This is a dangerous game for the Patriots, and as for fantasy value, it's hard to sit Tom Brady, but I can't say I'm crazy about him here. The Seahawks have give up few big plays and can contain the Pats running game. In the end, I think Russell Wilson will be prone to make the big mistake, and I'd play the Patriots defense here. The Patriots get a late touchdown to Hernandez, and other than that, the field goal kickers rule the day.


PATRIOTS 16, SEAHAWKS 9




SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

GREEN BAY @ HOUSTON
It seems as if the NFC North is suffering from some great malaise, wherein the teams everyone was expecting to have top notch offenses and improving defenses are completely out of sync, and the teams that no one saw being able to do a whole lot of anything have taken over. Green Bay has suffered such an affliction. Just when it appeared the Packers were going to climb out of it, the Indianapolis Colts snatched a road victory from them. Aaron Rodgers and last year's fantasy gem Jordy Nelson just haven't been on the same page. Instead it's been James Jones, the man Rodgers lobbied for, who is having a career year in Green Bay, but that's added up to just a 2-3 record. Greg Jennings has already been ruled out of this game, and Jermichael Finley is questionable. Running back Cedric Benson is now on the IR, leaving Alex Green, who managed their longest run from scrimmage so far this year with a 41 yarder, to take the reins. James Starks may also be in the mix for some carries, making Green really a speculative play. You're safer picking him up and stashing him, hoping he does something impressive. As I mentioned last week, Rodgers is a great QB on turf, and after last week sports a 29/6 TD:INT ratio on the artificial surface. All of this may be for not if they can't stop Houston's rushing attack and control second year sensation J. J. Watt from wreaking havoc on Rodgers, who has already been sacked 21 times on the season.

The Packers give up 4.3 yards per carry as a rushing defense, yield 115 yards per game and have ceded two rushing TDs. No doubt Arian Foster will get 20-25 carries in this one, if for no other reason than to bleed some clock and keep Rodgers and company on the bench. Where Matt Schaub has to be careful is against Green Bay's pass defense, because the Packers lead the NFL with 18 sacks, and have forced five interceptions. Schaub is 3-9 when he throws two interceptions or more, and the Packers are going to want to dare Schaub to beat them through the air. Andre Johnson's numbers have suffered as a result of the run heavy offense in Houston, but I expect Houston to involve him just enough to keep things moving along. He'll get your 3-4 grabs for 50 yards and a touchdown. I don't expect great numbers from anyone else but Owen Daniels, who has given you double digit fantasy points two weeks straight, and is now the third best TE in fantasy in ESPN standard leagues. Look for Rodgers and company to attack Houston's secondary, even without the services Jennings or Finley, to try to build a lead and take Foster out of the picture. Rodgers could easily struggle this game, and with Houston's pass rush, force a few ill-advised throws. I'd actually play Houston's defense because the sack potential is so high I like Foster to rule the day.

TEXANS 31, PACKERS 21




MONDAY NIGHT GAME


DENVER @ SAN DIEGO
These teams are basically mirror images of each other. Both factor in dynamic quarterbacks who will defer to the pass over the run. Both sport top 15 defenses. San Diego has a young dynamic playmaker in RB Ryan Mathews who is as dangerous in the backfield as he is out in the flat. Along with newest goal line pounder Jackie Battle, the two headline a steadily improving rushing offense now averaging 103 yards per contest and four yards per carry, up from under 100 yards just a few weeks ago. The Broncos have a revived Willis McGahee, who has posted 4.5 yards per carry and three touchdowns, not to mention adding 14 receptions for 91 yards. Add rookie Ronnie Hillman, who is beginning to add carries weekly, and the Broncos running game is not something to ignore. Where the teams differ is their ability to throw the ball. Peyton Manning is 4-3 all time against the Chargers, but has never faced them when it was a divisional matchup. Perhaps the ramifications of the venue change will be lost on such a veteran, but one thing Manning can't ignore is his 12:16 TD:INT ratio, 6.78 yards per attempt and his 61 percent completion rate. They are not his strongest numbers. However, for the season he's thrown just three interceptions while tossing 11 touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas is one of the rising stars among NFL receivers, as his size and speed can only draw comparisons with Atlanta's Roddy White. Philip Rivers is 9-4 all time against the Broncos, with a 20:7 TD:INT ratio. He still has a Hall of Fame Tight End in Antonio Gates, and a strong, head-topping Malcom Floyd, who has averaged no less than four receptions per contest and has nine plays over 20 yards this year.


However, the truth is the jury is still out on just how solid a team the Chargers are. They've beaten up Kansas City, Oakland and Tennessee, while losing to the Saints and Falcons. This game could be a major test for them, and it comes at a bad time as San Diego's injury problems are beginning to take hold. Mathews apparently suffered some sort of ankle tweak and was once again a featured name on the injury report after missing practice Wednesday. Malcom Floyd is suffering from a groin issue, the same kind of problem that has sidelined the Packers Greg Jennings for several weeks. He's listed as questionable as well. Wide receiver Eddie Royal was limited in practice Thursday with a hamstring and missing from practice Friday, giving true doubt to his availability on Monday night. Without these weapons at Rivers' disposal, Robert Meachem will have to elevate himself to top receiver status, something he hasn't been able to achieve thus far. He has just nine receptions on the season of his 19 targets, though he scored twice against his former team last week.


I don't have much doubt Floyd will attempt to play, and if he does, he'll get 10 targets in this one. However, Ryan Matthews has a chance to reclaim his RB1 position atop the depth chart, as Denver is ranked 21^st against the rush. Mathews will be a terrific PPR play, as the lack of healthy receivers will make him a passing option as often as he runs. He'll get 15-17 carries and 5-6 receptions. Except Jackie Battle to take on goal line duty and Antonio Gates to finally make a big impact in the middle of the field, with several looks around the end zone. Yet one gets the feeling that Peyton Manning will show why he's among the greatest on Monday night. Demaryius Thomas has only faced San Diego once as injuries forced him to watch the other three games from the sidelines. This time his hip problem isn't keeping him away, and after seeing how much difficulty the Chargers had containing Marques Colston last week, Manning will exploit San Diego's 20^th ranked secondary using Thomas as his manipulator. Willis McGahee will add 65 yards and a rushing touchdown, and Eric Decker will be the chain mover, giving PPR leagues solid WR2 numbers.

Check the injury report Sunday, but the Broncos are an aggressive defense, having sacked opposing QBs 14 times. Rivers has been dropped 14 times as well, and sans the weaponry of Floyd and Royal, will have to look to the likes of Gates, Meachem and Michael Spurlock for relief. Gates is the only reliable hands of those three, and Rivers has a tendency to force balls at inopportune times. He won't get away with that here as the Broncos 11^th ranked defense will turn those turnovers into points, and this healthy and surly Broncos team will upset San Diego at home.


BRONCOS 31, SAN DIEGO 20



 

THURSDAY NIGHT T & R (thoughts & revelations)

PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE
The Pittsburgh Steelers have traveled outside of their home town three times this year, and three times they've come home losers. In the opening weekend against Denver, the Steelers fell victim once again to the team that cut short the 2011 playoff run. With Peyton Manning at the helm, it seemed somewhat forgivable. The next two losses at Oakland and Tennessee, not so much. The recipe for winning on the road is pretty easy; Protect the football, play solid on special teams, and cause or create a few turnovers. Instead the Steelers allowed a blocked punt which turned into seven Tennessee points, turned the ball over at a crucial point in the game, and missed a golden opportunity after creating a turnover of their own. They were penalized four times for fifty yards, all of them coming from their defensive backfield and all costly. Yet, with just over a minute to play, the Steelers set up 1st and 10 at the Tennessee 39-yard line, a victory within their sites. What happened next is something that for Steelers fans has become patented Steelers football. They played for the field goal. Ben Roethlisberger threw a short screen to TE Heath Miller. Sitting at the 35-yard line, the Steelers took their time, let the clock bleed down and the handed off to second year runner Baron Batch, who promptly lost a yard. Now with faced with 3^rd and long, the Steelers had very little choice but to pass. Roethlisberger was pressured and his pass to Miller failed to reach its target. Shaun Suisham had kicked a 52-yard field goal earlier in the quarter, but the lost yard by Batch now placed the kicked back at 54 yards, and left it so if he missed, the Titans would have enough time and time outs to turn the game in their favor. This series of play calls underlines what the Steelers have done for a long time. Had the Steelers continued to attack, instead of biding their time at the 35 as if the game was already wrapped up, they might have scored a touchdown, pushing a victory beyond reasonable doubt. Certainly, their field goal could have been an easier one instead of one that had the additional ramifications should Suisham miss. This was a game, after all, against the Titans, a team that had given up the most points in the NFL. The Steelers do have Ben Roethlisberger, who coming into this week carried the third best passer rating in the league. He also had thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception.  What were they doing?  Maybe having lost Rashard Mendenhall to an Achilles injury, Isaac Redmen to an ankle injury, offensive linemen Maurkice Pouncey and Marcus Gilbert to leg injuries, conservatism was what was called for. It's what you do when you're more experienced.  Or in this case, let me rephrase that; It's what you do when you're older. Few looked older than Ike Taylor, who was picked on again mercilessly, and committed three defensive penalties: two pass interference and one defensive holding. He also jumped the route and missed the ball on Matt Hasselbeck's touchdown pass to Kenny Britt.  Few looked as slow as James Harrison, who may work well in pass rush lanes, but wasn't within five steps of Jared Cook as he caught the decisive pass on Tennessee's final drive to put them in Rob Bironas' field goal range.

The best news for the Steelers is that Ben Roethlisberger became Pittsburgh's all time passing leader, and did so in a game where Isaac Redman became the first Steelers RB to have over 100 yards receiving in over 40 years. The fact that Redman led all Steelers receivers against a pass defense ranked 25th, one that had just seven sacks through five weeks, tells you all you need to know about the Steelers' offensive line issues. Redman also reminded fantasy owners how good he can be in space, that he's a guy who simply gains yard after yard, even after being contacted multiple times. This is why many fantasy owners felt that he'd be solid filling in for Mendenehall. Now both he and Mendenahll are down, and with Jonathan Dwyer fighting turf toe, the Steelers rushing attack has all but collapsed. If you're the Steelers, the four day schedule looks like a disaster in the making, and the injuries sustained in this game might do in their season hopes. What can be taken from this game is that the Steelers team of a year ago is in further decline, even with some of the most powerful offensive weapons in the league at their disposal. 

Britt could come in handy down the stretch

If you're Tennessee, the schedulers just became your best friends. Chris Johnson looked a little more like his previous self, though it's very clear even when he finds space, the aggressive and fiery Johnson we saw just two years ago is gone. Kendall Wright may not be big, but he's a solid receiver who finds a way to get open when it matters. Kenny Britt was the wild card in this one, and he was one of the difference makers. His game-tying touchdown grab, along with his size and presence on the field made him someone the Steelers had to be wary of.  As Britt's health returns, so will his numbers, making him an interesting target for fantasy owners down the playoff stretch.  The Titans' final four opponents are the Colts, Packers, Jets and Jaguars.  That's three middling defenses all of which are giving up too many passing touchdowns, and the Jets, whose offense is such a liability that it can be argued they'll do what's left of their defense in.  Britt's return also means better numbers for Wright and TE Jared Cook, making them better plays as well. The Titans still won't be an offensive juggernaut, nor will the quarterback situation improve so much when Jake Locker returns. But by year's end, this team could easily spoil a few playoff scenarios, and Britt might bet the key to a fantasy ower taking home the title later in the season.

NFL WEEK 6 – THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE
You don't have to look too far back into the annals of NFL history to find that the Tennessee Titans (once the Houston Oilers) and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a tremendous history. In fact, no other game may have been more responsible for the argument for and advent of Instant Replay than the 1979 AFC Championship between the Houston Oilers and Pittsburgh Steelers. Late in the third quarter and trailing 17-10, the Oilers went on a drive to survive. Oilers QB Dan Pastorini hit speedy receiver Mike Renfro in the back corner of the end zone. The play happened so fast that it seemed obvious Renfro had failed to get a second foot down, but upon replay, it appeared he scraped his second foot and controlled the ball before he left the field of play. The missed call had a devastating repercussion on the game's result.  The Oilers had to settle for a field goal instead and the Steelers once again defeated their mighty rivals.
 
Flash forward to the new era and October of last year. The Titans visited a Steelers team minus the services of Rashard Mendenhall due to a hamstring injury, and Ben Rthlisberger was on a bad ankle.  Jonathan Dwyer filled in and delivered a 100-yards rushing, while Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes. Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson started for Tennessee, who again was without the services of Kenny Britt. Hasselbeck managed a touchdown and interception, and Johnson managed just 51 yards on the ground with a touchdown.  Is the outcome of this game likely to be different than the 38-17 game last season?

The last three games against the Steelers have left Titans QBs
scratching their heads.

Well, it's possible but unlikely.  The Steelers have won the last three games against the Titans, forcing 10 turnovers.  Matt Hasselbeck has a 1-2 record against the Steelers in the regular season, completing just 56 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Chris Johnson averages 3.46 yards per carry against Pittsburgh, and has two scores. However, with Johnson's current plummet off the yards per carry cliff, can we expect him to deliver his 4.76 career yards per carry average at home against the Steelers eleventh-ranked rush defense? For the Titans to win, at some point they'll have to successfully run the ball. After all, the Steelers pass defense is third best in the NFL, giving up 184 yards per game. Though Lamar Woodley is likely to miss Thursday's game, Woodley isn't nearly the impact player James Harrison is, and Harrison's plenty healthy right now. So with Matt Hasselbeck on the downward side of his career, Tennessee would prefer to run the football. Next, the Steelers passing offense is ranked third, and will test the heck out of this Tennessee team giving up 279 yards per game. And if you think the Titans passing defense is creaky, then their rushing defense is a rusty hinge, yielding 144 yards per contest.

I think the Steelers will run a lot this game, even with their patchwork offensive line. Tennessee's LB Akeem Ayers is the only guy they have to worry about, as he is ranked fourth in tackles in the NFL. Linebacker Colin McCarthy still is fighting through his ankle injury and if he plays he'll be less than 100 percent. On four days rest, Mendenhall will likely cede some extra carries to Jonathan Dwyer, who based on last year's performance will get second billing. Isaac Redman will handle goal line duties and I expect his number called at least once for a short TD. Mendenhall will garner at least 12 carries with Dwyer picking up another 5-7 and Redman with 3-4 as well. If the Steelers can get some rushing yards, they can move to play-action, and isolating man-to-man coverage. Then, look out for Mike Wallace deep. I think it's his day to take one deep to the house, so anticipate 110 yards and a touchdown. Hines Ward had his best game against Tennessee last year, so I expect Antonio Brown to get at least 10 targets and another 85 yards. The Titans are prime fodder for tight ends this year, having giving up seven passing touchdowns to tight ends. Heath Miller is a decent start, and I like him for another five grabs for 45 yards with a score. Taper expectations on fantastic numbers though, as the four day break has definitely hindered scoring. Roethlisberger should give you around 275 yards passing, two TDs and an interception.

As for Tennessee, even though I think Mike Munjack would like to run, this game will be all about relying on the veteran Matt Hasselbeck. Last week Hasselbeck attempted 43 passes, probably because when you're down 23-0 in the third quarter, you're likely to give up running the football. Tennessee simply can't afford to fall behind in this one. So look for Kendall Wright and Jared Cook to be locked in early. The wild card is Britt, who practiced fully Tuesday and is expected to return. In two games against the Steelers he's averaged 4.5 catches and 63 yards. If he's out there, I think he makes a good play. Steelers corner Ike Taylor has had his share of issues again, and against a receiver like Britt seems primed to commit pass interference. Thus Britt will get his share of targets unless he has a setback. His presence alone will add to Kendall Wright's value, and he's worth a flex play if you're desperate. Your best bet is to play Jared Cook, as the Steelers have allowed three tight ends to score in their first four games. With Troy Polamalu out again, either Ryan Mundy or Larry Foote is likely to pick him up in coverage and both are substandard. Both Mundy and Foote gave up touchdowns in the Philadelphia game. Cook ends up with 80-100 yards and a score.

Since the Oilers moved to Nashville, the Steelers have won just twice, going 2-7 in Tennessee. However, this a prime time matchup, and Ben Roethlisberger is 23-7 in October and 6-1 on Thursday night games, I'm taking the Steelers to swing the momentum enough to cover on Thursday night in Tennessee.

STEELERS 24, TITANS 17