THE 2012 FANTASY SEASON – DRAFTING BEGINS
The hype began weeks ago.
If you were smart enough to schedule your draft later into the
pre-season, you’ve reaped the benefit of some extra information, especially
when it comes to injuries.
Experts galore are pumping up the guys they love and disparaging
the guys they hate, and I’m no different.
But rather than simply get you psyched about a player or players, I will
give you some thoughts to keep in mind about each team this season that might
change the way you view who you value.
Let’s get to it.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt sewed his oats under Bill Cowher’s
two-back system that utilized fast Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport.
This is what makes Chris “Beanie” Wells a
possible RB1 of the future.
He’s got
deceptive speed and can still be physical, and his 2011 totals of 245 carries
and 10 touchdowns were the most of his young career.
Second year man Ryan Williams could take some
of these carries as a change-of-pace back, but remember that Williams already tore
a patellar tendon in his knee, likely limiting the number of carries he’ll get
in his first true season on the field.
Regardless of the quarterback, Larry Fitzgerald will still get his
targets and yards, as he managed 1,000 yards for his fifth straight year.
The same reason Fitzgerald thrives under
abysmal QB play is the same reason Wells hasn't -- Arizona often finds that
they are throwing to stay even competitive in football games.
If they can get even slightly more consistent
quarterback play, Wells owners will find they are rewarded.
As for the second option in the passing game,
Andre Roberts has the early track to be that guy.
Just how many targets that means will depend
on Whisenhunt’s confidence in his quarterback.
My suspicion is Kevin Kolb just doesn’t have the confidence or
durability to play in the NFL (he’s already missed pre-season time with a
bruised rib) and John Skelton hasn’t (yet) shown he can be a consistent
downfield thrower.
I expect a bigger skew
toward the running game and time of possession from this year’s Cardinals.
Keep an eye on TE Rob Housler as he could
amass decent numbers behind injury-prone Todd Heap.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Matt Ryan is progressing as a QB, though he seems to be as
lackluster a player to watch play the position as Jim Kelly was.
Remember how boring and uninspired the
Buffalo offense was?
That's Atlanta.
Michael Turner is reliable and has registered
300 carries two seasons in a row and three of the last four.
Since NFL coaches have been giving a lot of
running backs a 'pitch count' so to speak in addition to becoming tandem
oriented, no other back has matched his touches on a yearly basis.
Others that did touch the 300-attempt
precipice often went over and never returned.
I’m not high on him this year.
One
other note based on their first pre-season game; a lot may be made of the fact
the six of Ryan's nine completions went Julio Jones' way.
Don't make a lot of it come draft time.
I agree Jones has high upside, but Roddy
White received 181 targets last year, double that of Jones.
Jones will cut into that number this year,
but both will be solid receivers come season time barring injury.
Tony Gonzalez won’t make too many big plays,
but he’s consistent and is still a red zone maven.
Matt Ryan is a top ten quarterback that can
be obtained in the fifth round of a 12-team draft on average.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Raynell Maurice Rice is nearly everyone’s consensus first or
second running back off the board, and that’s not really surprising. For the last three years he’s averaged 1,300
rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns combined with 72 receptions and 654
receiving yards and 1.7 receiving touchdowns.
He’s also proven to be durable having started all 48 games in the last
three seasons. With Ricky Williams out
of the picture, the guy is perhaps the safest pick in an unsafe game. As for the rest of the team, there are many
uncertainties, besides perhaps John Harbaugh’s defense, although it is aging
quickly. For the fourth season in a row,
Joe Flacco started all 16 games behind center.
In 2011, he attempted the most passes of his career (542) and completed
the lowest percentage (57.6%), a hefty dip from his growth to a stout 63%
completion rate in 2010. He also
averaged a meager 6.7 yards per attempt, a lot of which has to do with finding
Rice out of the backfield, for which it’s hard to blame him. Where there is a problem with Flacco is the offensive
efficiency of the unit. They finished 19th
in offensive efficiency, averaging 5.23 yards per play and 19th in
overall passing yardage per game. His
two choices at wide receiver are headed in different directions: Anquan Boldin, age 31 and once big play man
turned possession receiver, and Torrey Smith, the 23 year-old burner out of
Maryland who averaged 16.8 yards per reception (22.8 per catch in the
post-season). Smith’s your top choice
here of the wide receivers group. The
tight ends, Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson, both have decent hands, and both
figure to get a decent amount of targets.
For the year, Dickson was targeted at a 1.5:1 ratio over Pitta. However, it was Pitta who received 19 targets
over the final three weeks last season. As
of this writing, Pitta’s hand surgery isn’t keeping him from practice but could
limit his catches, but until Cam Cameron reveals who is the favorite of these
two, you can do better elsewhere.
BUFFALO BILLS
Harvard-educated quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick brained his
way into a huge contract extension midway through the 2012 season, and then
promptly collapsed.
However, Fitzpatrick
was never intended to be a game-breaker, and there are only so many injuries a
team can absorb before it simply struggles to get the most basic of things
accomplished.
Fitzpatrick lost his
center Eric Wood and then his top runner Fred Jackson.
The defense lost the likes of their best
defensive tackle Kyle Williams and then DB Terence McGee.
Add to that breakout safety George Wilson,
tackle Demetrius Bell, slot man Roscoe Parrish and complementary receiver
Donald Jones, and all that was left was a mere shell of the team that started
5-2.
Fitzpatrick is a smart enough field
general to make this offense move when Fred Jackson is slowed.
However, Jackson is their playmaker, who
according to www.profootballfocus.com averaged a league best 3.75 yards after
contact.
So it didn’t matter last year
when the Bills’ line was being shuffled like a deck weekly.
Jackson made things happen, and he’s a top
five back this year, even with C.J. Spiller competing for carries.
If Jackson stays healthy, even on the wrong
side of 30, I expect this late-bloomer to get a career high number of carries
(guessing 275) which would place him easily over 1,200 yards.
I think he’ll also get you eight rushing
TDs.
Steve Johnson is the top dog of
Fitzpatrick’s receiving targets with Donald Jones likely to be their WR2.
That doesn’t mean he should be for your team.
Fitzpatrick threw way more passes last year
than Chan Gailey wants him to, so expect the running game to feature Jackson like
it did early on last year.
Wide receiver
David Nelson is also in the mix and is a wild card here.
Tight End Scott Chandler is a red zone
possibility but keep in mind that he didn’t score in the final six games he
played last year.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Sometimes it's a good strategy to take a quarterback that
plays for a team with a bad defensive unit.
Being behind generally means more attempts to score quickly, and that translates
to more passes.
Cam Newton was one such
quarterback last year, and those that took a flyer on him
(like yours truly) were rewarded with a deep
fantasy playoff run.
I don’t believe
Newton will repeat the same fantasy numbers, if for no other reason than the
coaches will use him more this year as a goal line decoy in order to protect
him.
His rushing numbers will decline and
so will his rushing touchdowns.
The risk
of injury is too great.
Newton aside,
there's nothing to like about anyone in Carolina's backfield.
Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have
been splitting carries for awhile, and neither managed over 900 yards last
year. The two of them managed a hefty 5.4 yards per carry, and 11 TDS, while Cam
Newton alone ran for 14 TDS and averaged 5.6 per carry.
To add further insult to the situation, the
Panthers brought in Mike Tolbert from San Diego.
The former Charger managed eight rushing
touchdowns despite getting 60 less attempts and essentially being replaced by
Ryan Mathews.
As of this writing,
Stewart has an injured ankle after the third pre-season game, meaning Tolbert’s
value has just increased as the red zone back, and Williams could become
seriously important if Stewart can’t return.
Steve Smith finished fifth overall in receiving yards with the second
highest output of his career, and his highest YPA at 17.6, so don't overvalue
him this year.
He's 33 and in a sign
fatigue may have been a factor had just one game over 100 yards in the second
half of the season paired with three scores against the five he had in the
first half.
He also accounted for nearly
one quarter of all Panther receptions last year.
That kind of skew isn't likely to repeat, and
second year pro quarterbacks also tend to catch a case of the sophomore blues.
In addition, new blood in the form of Louis
Murphy and Rookie Joe Adams could take some looks away from Smith this year,
not to mention Brandon Lafell who in spite of catching just 36 passes averaged
a whopping 17 yards per catch as well.
CHICAGO BEARS
Because of the strength of the division that is now the NFC
North, people forget that the Bears were 7-3 by Week 11 when Jay Cutler got
hurt.
During that run, there were only
three other players that ever had a single game of five or more catches besides
Matt Forte, and Dane Sanzenbacher was the only receiver to equal or exceed five
catches in a game, and he did so twice.
Things have changed.
Roy Williams
is gone.
Dane Sanzenbacher is fighting
for a roster spot.
Earl Bennett is
likely to move from first on the depth chart to third behind new acquisition
Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffrey.
Mike Tice is the new offensive coordinator, which is good news for Matt
Forte.
Tice is a former offense lineman and
line coach, an area the Bears need to vastly improve upon, and Tice’s approach
won’t be the most creative.
Matt Forte
will be the focal point of the offense, with Michael Bush given a few series to
keep Forte fresh.
However, I wouldn’t be
surprised if both backs surpass 200 carries, as this is still a rush oriented
team.
If you miss out on the QB auction
early on, you could do worse than Cutler.
He averaged 231 passing yards per game and didn’t have the likes of
Brandon Marshall anywhere on the field. The drawback with Cutler is twofold:
first, his offensive line is among the worst in football according to Pro
Football Weekly.
Second, Cutler has some
of the same issues I saw with Jake Plummer.
He sometimes overrates his own talent and tries to put balls into places
he shouldn’t, leading to higher than average interception totals.
This year, waiting in the wings is Jason
Campbell, who was having a stellar season in Oakland until his collarbone
injury.
He should be a starter on most
teams in the league, so I expect his presence to keep Cutler extra
motivated.
Brandon Marshall is a solid
WR2 for your team, simply because in the entire history of the Bears they have
just one receiver to ever catch 100 passes in a season, and that was Marty
Booker in 2001.
Booker also has the
distinction of being the only Bears receiver to eclipse 1,000 yards in
back-to-back seasons, so taper Marshall’s expectations for the entire season to
around 55-60 catches and 900 yards.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Andy Dalton was one of the more pleasant surprises of the
2011 NFL season.
He made 516 attempts
and completed 300, a 58.1% clip.
Not
horrible, but at a 6.6 yards per attempt, it’s nothing to write home
about.
Still, he gets rid of the ball
quickly (sacked only 24 times – NFL avg. 37) and this year, figures to be part
of a more pass-oriented offense.
The
replacement of Cedric Benson with BenJarvus Green-Ellis is one of the more odd
choices of this off-season.
Green-Ellis
had two solid seasons in the Patriots system, but amassed more than 200 carries
just once.
He scored 24 touchdowns in
that span, surprising for a running back considered one of the worst after
contact in the NFL (
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/03/27/2011-elusive-rating/).
Bernard Scott was supposed to take over for
Benson, but clearly Cincinnati isn’t in love with him after acquiring
Green-Ellis.
With A.J. Green’s fast development
and the arrivals of Brandon Tate and rookie Mohamed Sanu, this could mean more
attempts to spread the field.
Tight end
Jermaine Gresham, once known for his ability to stretch the field might see
more downfield action.
I like Gresham as
a sleeper this year as second year quarterback Dalton is given more
responsibility with Jay Gruden’s offense.
Expect another solid year from Green, and Dalton is a solid QB2 this
year with upside.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
You have to feel a little bit for the Browns' fans.
I mean, this isn’t Art Modell’s Browns – this
is the new (worse) Browns.
Brandon Weeden
is likely to have a short learning curve, because Colt McCoy may be the least
mentioned player during training camp coverage thus far. And why shouldn’t he
be?
The arrival of Trent Richardson was
supposed to finally give the Browns the big play tailback they hoped for in
Montario Hardesty or they got partially for one season with Peyton Hillis.
Now Richardson is under the knife again for
cartilage problems in his knee, the same knee that was scoped in February.
Cartilage removal isn’t likely to affect his
output this season, but I’d keep an eye on his left knee for wear and tear all
season long.
With Richardson, the Browns
have a chance to give Weeden precious time in play-action to make some plays
with a below-average receivers group.
Greg Little caught 61 balls, but dropped 14, including six in one game.
The toll this took on Little was much less
than it did on Colt McCoy, who has taken the fall for many stalled drives where
he delivered perfectly good passes.
Little has a chance to lead this group to an improved status, but don’t
invest much.
Behind him is Mohamed
Massaquoi and Josh Cribbs, neither of whom cause opposing offensive
coordinators to lose sleep.
Ben Watson
may play decent role in this offense, particularly with a rookie QB.
Watson’s problem is health and he’s not a
burner, but he can find open seams and has solid hands.
He’s a likely, at best a solid Bye Week
fill-in.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Tony Romo haters will still point to the fact that Romo’s
post-season success is limited.
I look
at his numbers and point to one of the more consistent QB performers in fantasy
four of the last five years.
Besides an
injury shortened 2010, Romo’s other four seasons he averaged over 4,000 yards
and nearly 30 touchdowns passes.
In ESPN
leagues, he was seventh best of all QBs, and keep in mind, he turned Laurent
Robinson into a stud free agent while achieving these numbers with a depleted
receivers group as Miles Austin and Dez Bryant constantly fought injury.
Shockingly, as good as Romo is, his receivers
are too injury prone for me to invest much in them this year.
Austin is again suffering from hamstring
strains.
Dez Bryant, between his
off-field actions and quad and leg problems, is too unreliable right now.
So I’m avoiding Dallas wide-outs this year
except for Jason Witten, should he return from the lacerated spleen injury he
suffered in the Cowboys second pre-season game.
DeMarco Murray isn’t getting a lot of work right now as a way of keeping
him healthy, but recovering from a broken ankle can be a lot easier than a
severely sprained ankle, so I expect that he’ll be back to form. The problem is
that consistency wasn’t exactly his form to begin with.
In only five games of the 13 he played did he
manage to gain more than four yards per attempt.
When he did break that barrier, boy did he,
with eye-popping numbers.
Then you look
at the likes of the teams he did it against: Buffalo (finished 28
th
against the run), Seattle (15
th), Philadelphia (16
th) and
St. Louis (31
st).
Those four
games accounted for 601 of his 897 rushing yards.
In head-to-head matchups, he’ll win you a few
weeks and kill you some others, so don’t reach for him.
Felix Jones is still there to get his portion
of carries, and can still make big plays.
DENVER BRONCOS
Where do you draft him?
The expectations and anticipation of Peyton Manning this season match
the old moniker of his new home turf: mile high.
The clever fantasy football-er is pressing
full steam ahead to collect their RBs and WRs early while catching Manning in
as late as the ninth round in some drafts.
As we get closer to the season, Manning’s ADP is rising.
For your draft purposes you must think of
Manning as a QB2.
Anything more than that and you are risking a
great deal, especially considering QBs have led all fantasy scorers the last
few seasons. My eyebrows popped into my receding hairline when Manning himself
told reporters he wasn't at 100% and couldn't throw downfield as well.
As competitive as a guy like Manning is, for
him to send a peremptory shot across his fans' bow to warn them of his possible
shortcomings prior to the season piqued me.
It was odd and worrisome.
He may
be fine.
He may not.
And bypassing guys like Rogers, Stafford,
even Ben Roethlisberger or Cam Newton, to put Manning in the first slot prior
to seeing him take a sack is a risk I'm unwilling to take.
If he's available as a backup to a strong
candidate, sure you can grab him.
The
hype is that Eric Decker and Manning have great chemistry while Demaryius
Thomas has struggled.
Now, how can one
struggle with Manning's massive check-down system? (yes, that’s sarcasm)
All kidding aside, Thomas' biggest problem is
health, having managed just 22 games in his first two seasons.
According to sources, he's also not yet a
detailed route-runner.
If Thomas is
healthy, he has high upside because of his sheer size and speed, but he'll have
to learn to stick to his assignment.
If
Manning goes down, you've got a WR3 on your hands.
For Decker that scenario might be worse.
The only guy I'm willing to consider here is
Willis McGahee, ironically because he has become durable and managed to play in
all but two games the last three seasons.
He's not a PPR alternative, but he should be a red zone hawk this
year.
Should the offense stay healthy
throughout, McGahee will celebrate the added visits to the zone with higher TD
numbers closer to those of 2009.
With
all the hype out there around Jacob Tamme now that Manning is in Denver, it’s
hard to call him a sleeper anymore.
He
should put up good numbers, especially with Manning saying that his depleted
arm strength is compromising his deep ball.
Thus, I’ll speculate that deeper routes might be centered to give
Manning a little more range downfield.
DETROIT LIONS
Matthew Stafford may have an injury-prone past, but who else
are you going to take in the Lions backfield that won't keep you up
nights?
This team is primed to be a
pass-first offense, with no true reliable running back to speak of.
Jahvid Best is sadly one concussion away from
perhaps being done.
Kevin Smith has had
ankle and foot problems, which continued to dog him after his brief comeback
last year.
And Mikel LeShoure, who is
recovering from a torn Achilles, is likely facing a suspension due to several
arrests.
Stafford has Calvin Johnson on
the outside, the ultimate quarterback escape plan should he even simply toss
one up.
Titus Young, if he gets his head
on straight, could be a solid WR2 with upside.
Nate Burleson is solid when healthy, and had more catches last season,
73, than a name like Vincent Jackson (68) has ever had in one season.
The question is where to rank TE Brandon
Pettigrew, and I believe he'll be a top TE this year.
The knock on him really is he managed just
five receiving TDs last year and that was his career best.
Make no mistake about it, for the last two
seasons he has been on an upward curve being targeted 111 and 126 times
respectively.
No other TE has been
targeted that much in the last two years.
I think you can let a guy willing to spend a higher draft pick on Jimmy
Graham and Rob Gronkowski go ahead, and catch Pettigrew a few rounds later and
be in very good shape.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The signing of Cedric Benson only helps Aaron Rodgers, as
this has become a pass first, consider-the-run-when-necessary offense. James
Starks only carried 133 times to the tune of 4.3 yards per carry, but scored
just once.
His ankle injury in November
rendered him useless the rest of the season.
To that end, the aforementioned Benson was signed as an insurance
policy.
Keep in mind, the Packers only
attempted 395 rushes.
Only six other
teams had less rushes in the NFL.
Greg
Jennings had knee problems last year, and at age 28 should be in his prime, but
2011 saw Jennings YPA drop below 16 yards per catch for the first time the last
three seasons.
Jordy Nelson leapt to the
forefront, even once Jennings went down, and showed he belongs at the number
two.
Both have generally been durable
players, and along with Jermichael Finley at tight end, comprise a group of
top-notch fantasy options.
If there’s
one concern this year it’s that Rodgers’ success this year will depend on a new
offensive line that includes veteran Jeff Saturday and new left tackle Marshall
Newhouse.
Saturday is 37, and though
he’s still considered among the best centers in the league, he’s aging fast,
and the injuries Saturday has endured and played through are likely to take
some toll.
Known to be a great line
general, should Saturday get hurt, things could get messy.
Marshall Newhouse filled in for Chad Clifton,
starting three games last year and did a fine job, allowing the Packers to
release the veteran Clifton in April. Still Aaron Rodgers was sacked 41 times;
four above the league average. While a lack of running game might not hurt
Rodgers’ statistics, it could catch up with the team itself.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Arian Foster has taken the league by storm.
Not since Priest Holmes exploded onto the
scene has a running backed taken over an entire offense like Foster has.
And it's a good thing too because Andre
Johnson's leg issues are crimping the Texans passing game. Enter Foster, who
despite playing 13 games amassed over 1,200 rushing yards, 600 receiving yards
and 12 total touchdowns.
It is worrisome
that he's started having quadriceps and knee issues, but it's not surprising
considering his workload.
Even so, with
Ben Tate behind him, he has plenty of motivation to stay on the field, and
unless he suffers a serious problem, he'll be the focal point of Houston's
attack and opposing defensive coordinators.
Matt
Schaub returns and so does his mediocrity.
After the 2009 season, it appeared that Schaub was on his way to elite
quarterback status.
A disappointing 2010
and an injury-ridden 2011 now put Schaub at age 30, and the Texans on a short
time-frame to make a deep playoff run before they look elsewhere.
Andre Johnson is a top receiver when
healthy.
Unfortunately those two words,
when healthy, have been cropping up more
and more lately.
Already this pre-season,
Johnson has been dealing with another hamstring problem.
This is likely a result of his recurring knee
and ankle problems, and though the reward is high, I'm avoiding Andre Johnson
because of the risk.
If he's available
in the fourth round then I'd consider it, but in general he's going to have to
drop for me to consider him above Calvin Johnson, Roddy White and maybe even Julio
Jones.
Kevin Walter is a good
possession guy, but that's about it.
Rookies DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin are expected to make some kind
of impact, but are likely waiver wire fodder.
Owen Daniels could figure in again with a strong season as the last time
he and Schaub were both healthy, Daniels caught 70 balls for 862 yards and two
scores.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Yes, Andrew Luck threw a touchdown on his first pass; of
course that pass was all of two yards and Donald Brown and his blockers made
the rest happen.
I don't think any of us
are ready to do much more than take a flyer on Andrew Luck as a backup and pray
he can put up quality numbers.
He most
likely will have good numbers, but this is a team in transition, with a lot of
new moving parts.
Donald Brown has
little competition to be the top running back, which is a good thing.
However, Brown has provided little evidence
he can be a true workhorse back.
His
durability has been questionable and he's managed just two 100-yard games in
his three seasons.
Granted, he was
sharing time, and last year he managed his first season over four yards per
carry (it was closer to five).
He has
good hands, and could be a perfect safety valve/check down option for Luck,
much like we saw in their first pre-season game.
Expect his PPR numbers to be higher this
year.
However, I do expect Luck to be
given a chance to throw downfield.
To
that end, Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne are both perplexing additions to your
lineup.
At times last year Curtis
Painter had time to throw and made some plays.
This year, Andrew Luck will be delivering the football, and unlike
Painter, there is no lack of confidence there.
Wayne, 33, hasn't missed a game in a decade, and even with Painter under
center he managed to haul in 75 receptions for 960 yards.
He may well be the most undervalued receiver
in this year's draft.
He may not have as
many big plays left in him, but don't forget Wayne is a great athlete with
gifted hands.
An 80 reception season is
not unattainable.
Collie's injury issues
are his biggest concern, and that will leave the door open for T.Y.
Hilton.
However, rookie receivers almost
never make a big impact their first year.
Coby Fleener is being hailed as an obvious sleeper, having played aside
luck at Stanford.
However, Bruce Arians
hasn’t featured his tight end very often as he prefers a downfield aerial
assault.
Fleener may add some good red
zone numbers, but I get the feeling from watching Luck, he's not going to be a
check-down happy quarterback a la Trent Edwards
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
No one is pointing to North Florida as a place to mine
fantasy talent this year.
And you can't
blame that.
Jacksonville was last in
offensive efficiency last year, averaging less than 4.5 yards per play in both
the running AND passing game.
Blaine
Gabbert may have the talent to be a professional quarterback, but he flinches
under pressure.
His tendency to throw
off his back foot or simply fall away from blitzing linebackers led to a 51.2
completion percentage, 11interceptions and only 12 touchdowns.
Granted, the wide receivers he had to choose
from hardly worried any defense, which turned the spotlight to Maurice
Jones-Drew and his amazing 2011 season.
I've never been a huge believer in MJD as an every down back, and right here
I'm going to say how wrong I was.
He was
flat out phenomenal, leading the league in rushing facing eight and nine man
fronts weekly.
However, I don't feel like I'd want to see MJD
get another 343 carry season because he's just too important to empty his
career gas tank so soon and he’s coming in after a holdout.
I would expect Rashad Jennings to be the lead
while MJD holds out, and Jennings to get more carries overall even when
Jones-Drew returns.
In limited action
Jennings has averaged over five yards per carry, something to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile, new management has begun the
transition of rebuilding by shedding some old, and picking up some nice pieces.
They went out and got Chad Henne to provide a
solid fallback should Gabbert struggle again, picked up Laurent Robinson from
free agency and drafted Justin Blackmon, a huge receiving talent who has
impressed so far in training camp.
I've
never been a Robinson believer, though it's hard to argue what he did last year
to save the Cowboys season after both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin went
down.
Marcedes Lewis was a nice surprise
in 2010 and a huge bust in 2011.
Gabbert
will determine whether any of these guys become sweet value picks in the mid to
late rounds of your draft, and to that end, tread cautiously.
Jones-Drew is a top five back assuming he returns
sooner than later (particularly in PPR) and Blackmon is a worthy mid-round pick
just because he's likely to see 70-80 targets regardless.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
If Houston provides some shady risk-reward factors, the
Chiefs are the equivalent of putting your house on 'red' and spinning the
roulette wheel.
Matt Cassel seems to
perform best on even years (see '08 and '10 seasons for reference
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CassMa00.htm)
and former New England receivers coach Brian DaBoll has high expectations on
him to get Matt Cassel to his 2010 numbers.
The return of TE Tony Moeaki certainly will assist that effort, as he
was sorely missed after his 2010 campaign of 47 catches, 556 yards and three
scores.
Kansas City's pass protection
has been average, but the bigger problem has been getting a receiver opposite
the streaky Dwayne Bowe that will stick.
Bowe is a huge target who makes plays whenever he's dialed in.
The problem with him is that he is a true
boom or bust play quite often.
He had
three games last year over 100 yards receiving, and two games of 17 yards receiving.
You can place his lack of scoring (just five
TDs) mostly on that three different quarterbacks started games for Kansas City
last year.
On the other side, Steve
Breaston is underrated as a receiver, but hardly durable.
The expectation is that Jonathan Baldwin will
step up in his second season and provide yet another big target for
Cassel.
Perhaps bigger still is the
return of Jamaal Charles, along with the addition of Peyton Hillis, to boost
the running attack far greater than Jackie Battle ever could.
By the time Week 1 rolls around, Charles will
have had nearly a year to rehab his new ACL, and I expect by late September
he'll be rounded into form.
Hillis will
vulture some short yardage TDs, and certainly can spell Charles on third down
or for a series here and there.
He's a
must handcuff for Charles.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Ryan Tannehill has won the starting job, something that comes
as a surprise to me as Matt Moore had a pretty solid year last year.
In fact, when you consider that Moore wasn’t
the starter, and played 13 games for the first time in his career, the fact he
completed over 60 percent of his passes, threw 16 touchdowns against only nine
picks, and managed a 6-7 record with a team that began 0-3 before he took over,
it’s a wonder the Dolphins didn’t see the kind of growth I did.
The Dolphins defense also blew two fourth
quarter leads in two of his first four starts.
The loss of Brandon Marshall will only make
Tannehill’s job more difficult.
He’ll
have to rely on underrated slot possession man Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline,
should Hartline get over his calf injury.
Legedu Naane has length but has never emerged as a big play threat.
Tight end Anthony Fasano’s role could
increase, particularly with rookie Tannehill under center.
He’s still not someone you’re targeting.
The player I’m keying on though is Reggie
Bush.
Many experts are simply
discounting Bush’s 2012 as a fluke.
There’s also a high expectation that the speediest rookie at the
combine, Lamar Miller, will eat into his playing time.
While the latter may be true, Bush became a different
running back last year.
Bush carried 216
times, the most in any season for him and averaged a whopping five yards per
carry.
He not only ran through the line,
but instead of avoiding contact, seemed to invite it.
He was physical and determined, and with his
great speed, has another possible 1,000 yard season awaiting him. Bush posted
five 100-yard games last season, and added 43 receptions.
He’s a possible top ten runner this year yet
is being ranked as the 20
th ranked running back.
Daniel Thomas may cut into some red zone
looks, but if Bush remains durable as he did in 2011, he’s a great target this
year.
Lamar Miller can only help that
cause, and the Dolphins are likely to try to run as much as possible.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
It’s the truth of most drafts.
It’s not always the player, but where you
drafted him that matters.
Depending on
where you draft him, Adrian Peterson can make or break your season.
If you reach for him too high, surpassing
other stat mavens he may cost you.
When
the season opens, Adrian Peterson will have had a little over eight months to
recover from two ligament tears and meniscus damage.
Peterson makes a great pick in round four or
five, but I’m not willing to invest more than that in him.
The likelihood he can run full tilt or with
the same confidence for the first quarter of the season is doubtful, as is how
many carries Leslie Frazier is willing to give his star workhorse.
Expect Toby Gerhart to see the yeoman’s share
of carries out of the gate, with that number decreasing as the season moves on
and Peterson’s health improves.
The
biggest question mark for Minnesota is just who is Christian Ponder?
He has limited weaponry with Percy Harvin,
Michael Jenkins and Jerome Simpson manning the wide receiver spots and
second-year man Kyle Rudolph expected to provide better numbers than Visanthe
Shiancoe.
Ponder’s numbers certainly
weren’t eye-opening, but then again, he wasn’t supposed to be the starting
quarterback.
After the Donovan McNabb
experiment failed, Ponder had to grow into the position mighty quickly.
What he did show was a willingness to step up
in the pocket and take a hit to deliver the football.
He also showed decent speed to escape pass-
rushers.
Will 2012 be the year he puts
it together?
Well, not for your fantasy
team that’s for certain.
Harvin is a
special talent, but his problems with migraines and injuries, not to mention the
limitation of just how many pass attempts Ponder will have this year, gives him
WR2 status on any fantasy team.
Jenkins
is a reliable pass catcher but won’t provide anything more than WR3
numbers.
Simpson is suspended for three
games to start the season, taking away one fifth of the season.
Rookie Jarius Wright is undersized but could
provide decent slot receiver totals because of speed and after catch
capability, while rookie Greg Childs output will largely be determined by his
health.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The last time Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator
in New England, Tom Brady broke Peyton Manning’s record for passing touchdowns
in a single season by hurling 50.
The
one thing I know with sequels though is they’re never as good.
The controversial McDaniels left Denver
rather unceremoniously after trading Peyton Hillis to get Brady Quinn and
drafting Tim Tebow.
He then was the
coordinator for the Rams last year, one that took a disastrous turn for the
worse after what was supposed to be a vastly improved team.
Injuries didn’t help, but perhaps McDaniels
got in over his head too early in his young career.
Now he returns home, back to Tom Brady, back
to Bill Belichick.
There were some
positives to McDaniels' tenure in Denver.
The Kyle Orton-to-Brandon Lloyd connection revived the careers of both
players, if not more Lloyd who elevated to top receiver status.
With McDaniels now in New England, you can
bet Lloyd will be a focal point of the passing game.
This brings me to Rob Gronkowski, rated among
the top tight ends
in the league.
He’s barely in my top five this year.
Here’s why.
I spoke to an orthopedic surgeon once after I had a high ankle
sprain.
Sprain, by the way, is really a
misnomer.
Depending on the injury, a
sprain is a gradation of tearing when it comes to ligaments.
He told me ankle surgery is much worse than
knee surgery.
Gronkowski has the best facilities
money can buy, but the ankle requires such a complex rehabilitation that it has
a high chance of recurrence.
Not only have
that, but 40% of all athletes who suffer such an injury had continued ankle
instability.
We’ve seen how it limited
him in the playoffs, and how Ben Roethlisberger’s high ankle sprain made him a
liability, and he didn’t have to run much.
Gronkowski will have had about nine months to recover from a tough
injury.
He won’t be the same player this
year.
I’ll bypass Gronk for Jimmy
Graham, Jermichael Finley, or Vernon Davis. . (PS Word is Gronkowski has some
sort of undisclosed problem – you've been warned).
Drafting among the New England runners is a crap-shoot,
but Stevan Ridley was solid after contact last year, gaining 3.75 extra yards
on average.
Still, New England runners
are depth players for your bench until one separates himself from the pack.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
There’s never a worry drafting Drew Brees.
He’s attempted more passes in the last three
years than any other quarterback in the NFL.
This will continue no matter who is coaching the team.
The running game will again be tricky to
measure in terms of fantasy.
Mark Ingram
should get his share of carries, but Darren Sproles has taken over the
backfield as the Saints’ premiere weapon.
In PPR leagues he’s in the top five of all backs, but I’m still going to
worry about his durability.
Mark Ingram
just hasn’t progressed nor impressed with his downfield vision or speed.
His health has also remained in
question.
Pierre Thomas is a hard-runner
and solid pass catcher, but just as he gets going, the injury bug hits
him.
Last year was his first in
surviving an entire campaign.
Jimmy
Graham is my best tight end off the board this year because of his sheer athleticism
and his quarterback. Marques Colston isn’t as fast as he once was, but he’s a
gigantic target and a strong possession guy.
With Robert Meachem gone, Devery Henderson should again take over the
deep ball routes, but I like Lance Moore to continue to be a constant threat
from the slot.
He’s led all wide receivers
in touchdowns last year.
Colston is a
safer pick than Moore, but I’ll take Moore in the later rounds if I don’t get
Graham.
NEW YORK GIANTS
For all his accolades and abilities, Eli Manning can drive a
fantasy owner crazy because he’ll still throw a duck into traffic.
Nevertheless, it is this same fearlessness
that has also made him a big play superstar.
According to mockdraftcentral.com, his ADP is 53, meaning you can grab
him in the fifth round and build the rest of your team accordingly.
The Giants are a pass first offense now, even
with Tom Coughlin’s rather traditional hard-nose football background.
He no longer has a physical back he can rely
on in Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw’s lingering foot and ankle problems
have carried over into three seasons.
Enter David Wilson, the rookie from Virginia Tech, who though rumored to
have fumble problems, could top out as the Giants best back this season.
He’ll have to improve his ability protect the
quarterback, but depth is limited in the Giants backfield.
D. J. Ware has yet to prove he can sustain a
level of play and health.
If you want a
giant (pun intended) sleeper this year, Wilson is it.
The receivers group is led by Hakeem Nicks,
but truthfully, he’s not as explosive as Victor Cruz.
Cruz burst onto the scene in the 2010
pre-season and was injured before the season began.
His 2011 year was continuation from that.
Nicks is still the top target-getter, and
while some may reach for Cruz because of his name recognition now, don’t forget
about the big, body-controlled guy Nicks is.
The Giants failed to bring back Jake Ballard, so Bear Pascoe and Dallas
disappointment Martellus Bennett will compete for Eli’s eye in the middle of
the field.
Bennett has loads of size and
good hands, but was injury prone and had focus issues in Dallas.
He has a chance to make a strong impact, but
if he couldn’t do it in Dallas where they like throwing to the tight end, I’m
not sure he’ll be huge in a Tom Coughlin/Kevin Gilbride offense, one whose
complexity might not fit with a guy who has a history of a weak work ethic.
NEW YORK JETS
It was reported
that Tom Coughlin once told a reporter that he was so tough early on when he
joined teams because it’s much easier to dial things back than dial them
up.
Rex Ryan has shed the weight and is
trying to expunge his ridiculous, boisterous, overly optimistic predictions of
the past and get down to business.
Oh,
how this team is on the verge of an implosion.
As if there weren't enough locker room problems last year, Mark Sanchez
is trying to convince the media, and perhaps himself, that he believes in the
system that will employ Tim Tebow in his offense while Tebow himself looms at
the heir apparent starter.
Shonn Greene
started to showed at times last year he was capable of being a first tier
running back, but his yards after contact is incredibly low for a stocky
runner.
In fact out of the 56 running
backs pro-football focus rated for elusiveness, Greene ranked 49.
He's a decent pass catcher, yet even as Mark
Sanchez struggled last year, Greene only managed 30 receptions.
He's without LaDainian Tomlinson sharing the
backfield, which should increase those numbers, but I think I'd rather have
Donald Brown.
Meanwhile, Santonio
Holmes, who has added more than his fair share of drama to the locker room,
worked with Sanchez this off-season to develop their chemistry.
However, he's already claimed he was unfairly
scapegoated for last season's issues, and finds himself battling both rib and back
issues.
Perennially injured Chaz
Schilens takes up the second WR spot, with the Jets expecting more from second
year man Jeremy Kerley and rookie Stephen Hill.
It still comes down to Sanchez, who in his fourth year has still not
become the first round pick they had anticipated.
It won't take much for this group to fall
apart, as pre-season fights have already gotten media attention, and Rex will
likely find that Tom Coughlin was right. Don’t be surprised is Ryan’s ship has
sailed by mid-season if the Jets start slow.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
For all the arm
problems Carson Palmer had in the past, he certainly wasn’t afraid to hurl the
rock downfield in 2011.
Palmer averaged
8.4 yards per attempt, fourth best in the league.
Problem is he also threw 16 interceptions in
just 328 attempts versus 13 touchdowns.
He also had three games with three or more turnovers.
There are better options, particularly when
you look at a receivers group without a proven tight end (David Ausberry is
favored to start), one year semi-sensation Denarius Moore, and the ever-improving
Darius Heyward-Bey.
Such an unproven
group makes
the Louis Murphy trade in
late July a perplexing one, as speedy Jacoby Ford was on the sideline last year
as much as he was on the field.
Darren
McFadden is a superstar but one that comes with great risk.
He’s never made it through a full season, and
entering his fifth year is still recovering from foot and hamstring issues
after managing just seven games last season.
Thus, if you draft McFadden, and you probably should if you’re sitting
in slot eight or higher, then Mike Goodson becomes a must have.
Taiwan Jones is also a consideration, but
he’s considered as great an injury risk as is McFadden.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
One
year after the supposed ‘dream team’ dubbed by Vince Young fell flat on its
face, the Eagles find themselves with an immense amount of talent and Vince
Young out of Philadelphia.
How far this
team goes will depend on the health and accuracy of quarterback Michael
Vick.
Already Vick has suffered a rib
injury this pre-season, and questions abound as to how successful Vick can be
if he’s not a threat to leave the pocket and scramble.
He has who I consider to be the best
all-around running back in the league from a talent standpoint.
LeSean McCoy had six 100-yard efforts last
year on the ground and nine games with over 100 all-purpose yards.
He added 48 receptions and over 300 receiving
yards to go with 20 total touchdowns.
The Eagles are equipped with a talented group of receivers, but
durability is a huge issue.
DeSean Jackson
has missed games in each of the last two years, as has Jeremy Maclin.
The diminutive speedster Jackson has also had
mental lapses, such as spiking the ball on the one-yard line before crossing
the goal line (twice in college, once in the pros).
His speed makes him a big-play guru, but
besides 2010, Jackson has averaged just four scores per season (not including
returns, which won’t help you unless you draft their defensive/special teams
unit).
Now that Jackson has his big
contract, one worries about how strong his motivation will be.
Maclin provided three 100-yard performances
in only 13 games and led the team with 63 receptions.
Thus, if healthy, he has more consistency and
is my preferred receiver of the two.
Brent
Celek had 19 red zone targets and 10 red zone receptions to lead this team
inside the 20.
Celek is in the second
tier of tight ends should you not get one of Graham, Gronkowski or Gates.
I’d take him over Owen Daniels, Jacob Tamme,
or even speculative pick Jared Cook.
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
The Steelers brought
in Todd Haley to replace Bruce Arians, which initially caused ripples with Ben
Roethlisberger.
Of course, to be blunt,
Roethlisberger isn't exactly a thinker; he's a playmaker.
Much to his own chagrin, Roethlisberger's
desire of an increased passing attack may have been his own undoing, as he
reported during training camp that he's suffering from a slight tear in his
rotator cuff.
We all know the ninth year
all-pro is not adverse to pain management, and to that end, he should continue
his rise toward a top fantasy quarterback.
With running backs suffering and recovering from injuries aplenty, Haley
will likely find even more ways to increase his quarterback's passing attempts.
Rashard Mendenhall was recently taken off the
PUP list, meaning he’s way ahead of schedule in terms of playing, but he still
may miss the first few games.
The loss
of first round pick guard David DeCastro wasn’t a piece of news the Steelers
wanted, though at least it he only tore his MCL ligament and not the ACL, so
there’s a good chance he’ll be solid for next season.
Still, the Steelers have to hope tackle Mike
Adams comes into form and the line improves, otherwise rushing gets even
tougher for Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer.
Don't count out Isaac Redman as a serious running back though.
In 110 carries last year, Redman managed a
4.4 yards per attempt and is ranked sixth on the elusiveness chart.
One only needs to watch Redman carry to know
he invites contact and runs right over it.
This may also invite injury, and depth is question as Jonathan Dwyer has
just eight games under his belt.
Mike
Wallace isn't expected to hold out into the regular season, but the time missed
might make his start slower than desired.
Antonio Brown signed a huge extension this off-season of five years and
$42.5 million after he had over 1,000 receiving and return yards in the same
season.
Wallace may be the deep threat,
but Brown has become Big Ben's go-to guy, receiving 10 more targets than the
aforementioned Wallace.
Emmanuel Sanders
will man the slot position after missing most of 2011, and Jerricho Cotchery
adds some veteran leadership to the group.
Heath Miller is a very hit-or-miss tight end, and in Haley's offense, he'll
deliver more of the same numbers, but he’s nothing special.
SAN DIEGO
CHARGERS
Can the Chargers
ever succeed at a level commensurate with their talent?
Injuries have plagued this team at a Biblical
level, and no one seemed to escape in 2011. The entire left side of the
Chargers’ line found the injured reserve.
LBs Larry English and Stephen Cooper joined them, and kicker Nate
Kaeding tore his ACL on the first play of the season.
Philip Rivers battled injuries and turnovers,
and this year already is without starting RB Ryan Mathews, who broke his
collarbone in the first pre-season game.
His durability already question, Mathews is likely to miss at least the
season opener if not more time, leaving an opening for Ronnie Brown to take
over the starting position.
Even though
he managed just 43 carries last year, Brown still hauled in 32 receptions, and
in a shotgun-reliant offense, Brown still holds some value.
The opportunity really is for Curtis
Brinkley, who had spot duty last year.
He has only 13 professional games under his belt, and won’t be used in
short yardage, but has quick feet and a decent burst.
Vincent Jackson’s loss is Robert Meachem’s
gain, as the former New Orleans Saint gets a chance to be the benefactor of a
Norv Turner offense that hasn’t attempted under 540 attempts each of the past
two seasons.
Don’t get me wrong, Meachem
has great speed and size, but I just don’t trust his hands. He’s never had more
than 45 receptions in a season, and the Saints chose keeping Devery Henderson,
a one-trick deep play pony, over the once highly touted Meachem.
Don’t expect someone to become what he has
never been.
Thus, I expect Malcom Floyd,
whose chemistry with Rivers continued to grow over the final few games of 2011
to be his top target besides Antonio Gates.
One guy to put on your watch list is LaDarius Green.
Gates has missed nine games the past two
seasons, and his foot problems are not likely to improve with age.
Rookie tight ends rarely make huge
appearances their rookie season, but Green was drafted as the heir to Gates’
position.
He’s a final round
consideration.
Rivers is still a solid
QB, even though he had the most turnovers of his career.
With a healthier line in front of him, he
should return to solid form this year.
SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
Even after what
was a long awaited growth-type season for Alex Smith, there was talk he was
going to be replaced.
Rumors that a deal
for Peyton Manning could be struck set Smith out to find what free agency would
offer.
Neither seemed to get what they
wanted so Smith is back with San Francisco for now, signing a three-year deal
worth $24 million, $9 million of which is guaranteed. If that sounds like a
smack in the face for a 28 year-old QB with plenty left in the tank, it is, especially
after you consider the fact he outdueled Drew Brees, delivering a TD strike to
Vernon Davis with just nine seconds left in the 49ers first playoff win in
nearly a decade.
In both playoff games,
Smith didn’t throw a single pick, and his growth and confidence as a QB can be
attributed to Jim Harbaugh and QB coach Geep Chryst.
Despite the fact Smith and the 49ers were
reunited on less than ideal circumstances, GM Trent Baalke went out and signed
Mario Manningham, and likely future hall of famer Randy Moss.
Whether this will add motivation to Michael
Crabtree, the former holdout turned disappointment, to avoid be labeled a true
bust is hard to know.
Manningham’s catch
totals sank last year amidst a crowded group of core receivers and injury.
He also is not considered the shrewdest
route-runner of the group, one of the areas that can be forgiven with a QB like
Eli Manning, but not necessarily with Alex Smith.
Thus, Manningham can make an impact in the
NFC West, but he’ll have to improve his mechanics, something that is very
possible under the determined eye of Jim Harbaugh. Randy Moss will get his
share of looks as well, particularly on the outside.
I don’t expect we’ll see Moss doing much
damage in the middle of the field though, which will limit his output.
Michael Crabtree is coming off his best
season, but still hasn’t managed to show the discipline that might lead to NFL
elite status.
I like Manningham to lead
this group in receptions this year, with nearly 90 targets and 65-70
receptions.
However, this group will
need to improve on third down efficiency (they were ranked 31
st for
2011) in order for this offense to balance their defense and provide some
quality fantasy numbers.
This is still a
ball control offense, but Frank Gore is likely to be given less reps in order
to keep him healthy and useful.
Brandon
Jacobs is likely to play the same roll Michael Bush did for some time in
Oakland, that of red zone and third down specialist, and an occasional spell
for Gore.
However, the oversized Jacobs
is facing the same fate of other punishing, physical backs – a short life-span
as an NFL runner.
LaMichael James isn’t
big, but has big play ability, and in PPR leagues should be a nice acquisition
for your bench initially.
Kendall Hunter
had a nice post-season, but is also undersized and rarely will play more than a
series or two.
Bruiser Anthony Dixon
could fill Jacobs’s role should Jacobs’ balky knee heal too slowly for him to
start the opener.
The defense/special
teams is worth mentioning because, 1) they play in what has been the
offensively inefficient NFC West; 2) they have an aggressive group of
linebackers featuring Patrick Willis and youngsters NaVorro Bowman and Aldon
Smith; and 3) Ted Ginn, Jr. is a highlight
waiting to happen in the return game for the special teams.
e’s
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Has there ever been a team as confounding as Seattle when it
comes to fantasy?
In the past, the great
northwest is where fantasy gems take their stats to die.
Recently, see Sidney Rice, Ricky Watters and
Joey Galloway.
The improved offensive
line and Marshawn Lynch’s aggressive running style had given some hope to the
Seahawks faithful until Lynch’s arrest tendencies popped its eerie head out of
the closet.
In July he was arrested for
DUI, his third arrest in the past five years.
Worse is the fact that no one speaks about Pete Carroll’s (lack of)
player assessment.
This is the same
Coach that traded for Charlie Whitehurst and declared him a starting NFL
quarterback.
This is the same guy whose
friendly, just-one-of-the-guys style seemed to work wonders in college (all
sanctions to USC aside) but rarely works in the pro ranks.
Carroll has no way of dialing things up here
(see Tom Coughlin reference in the NY Jets section), and while the acquisition
of Matt Flynn was a risk worth taking, if Lynch is suspended, a lack of running
game will hamper a line that allowed 50 sacks last year, 13 above the league
average.
I wouldn’t reach for Sidney
Rice based on his health problems alone.
Doug Baldwin is an intriguing young player who despite starting only one
game caught 51 balls for 788 yards and four touchdowns.
As of this writing, Terrell Owens has been
released, so that means the Seahawks feel they have enough receiver depth.
Will tight end Zach Miller return to the form
he once had in Oakland when he had two straight years of 60 or more receptions?
Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell was Brad
Childress’ coordinator the year Visanthe Shiancoe caught 11 TDs off the arm of
Brett Favre, so Miller could end up having sleeper value.
Carroll has named Russell Wilson, their third
round pick out of Wisconsin, his starting quarterback.
Keep in mind, if Wilson doesn’t work out, the
front office certainly doesn’t look good, seeing how they acquired Flynn for
$26 million, ten of which is guaranteed.
Again, see my previous mention about Carroll’s ability to assess
talent.
ST. LOUIS RAMS
There’s an old saying about quarterbacks: they can’t do much
damage throwing from their backs.
In
that case, Sam Bradford must have felt like he could have used a hammock in
2011.
Hurried and harassed for nearly
all of the season, the second-year quarterback was more a victim of bad line
play than anything else.
The offense
finished 31
st in total yards, led the league in sacks allowed and
yards lost, and were ranked 31
st in offensive efficiency, averaging
4.48 yards per play.
They also made a
league-low 29 appearances in the red zone.
Also, Bradford needs to be given some slack as he’s had two offensive
coordinators in two years: Pat Shurmur in 2010 and Josh McDaniels in 2011.
He’ll face his third offense in Brian
Schottenheimer’s scheme this year.
It
should be a better year with Jeff Fisher taking over at the helm period.
Steven Jackson will be one beneficiary, but
he may be too late to the big dance, as his physical ability has been punished
behind St. Louis’ deteriorating line play.
Enter rookie Isaiah Pead, who brings a career 6.0 yard per carry average
to the Rams, and was the Senior Bowl’s MVP.
Supposedly, he has solid hands as a receiver, as his 87 college
receptions would attest.
Rookie Daryl
Richardson is also on the depth chart, but both are small, and not likely to
supplant Jackson unless he’s felled by injury.
I expect Fisher and Schottenheimer to fix their line problems posthaste,
and that means better numbers for the receivers.
Danny Amendola is a poor man’s Wes Welker,
with burst quickness and deft ability to find holes in the zone.
Brandon Gibson petered out toward the end of
season, and
he has yet to average over
13 yards per catch, pretty mundane by NFL standards.
Veteran Steve Smith left the Giants and
Eagles and will attempt to show his knee isn’t going to affect him having an
impact in the Midwest.
He’s still only
26, and has great hands combined with solid route-running skills.
Tight End Lance Hendricks could be a pleasant
surprise, though Jeff Fisher’s past teams never relied on one tight end when it
came to the passing came (remember Bo Scaife/Ben Troupe/Erron Kinney?)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Buccaneers are counting on Josh Freeman to rebound from
a seriously awful sophomore campaign, one where he was increasingly turnover
prone, and the offense dropped to 27
th in the NFL.
With the defense collapsing to the worst
defense in terms of points ceded, Raheem Morris’ tenure came to an end.
New coach Greg Schiano ran a pro-style
offense at Rutgers, and claims he intends to be run-first offense.
Certainly based on Freeman’s 24 turnovers
last year, it would seem to be prudent.
To that end, the Bucs drafted RB David Martin out of Boise State as
their second first rounder to provide a speedier alternative to LeGarrette
Blount.
However, Blount is not only a
strong runner, he’s an elusive one as well.
He’s one of the top runners in the NFL after contact.
His problem is he doesn’t have great hands,
nor has he been a solid blocker, so he has been limited in becoming a
three-down starter.
Martin is likely to
win the starting job, which may motivate Blount further, and I still see Blount
as a pile mover who may increase his numbers inside the red zone.
The recent loss of guard Davin Joseph for the
season will be a hard void to fill in the offensive line, and the running game
could suffer a bit.
Vincent Jackson is
one of the most overrated players in the NFL.
It’s true he’s a big play receiver, but he’s never once grabbed 70
catches in a single season, and with Freeman as his quarterback, his yardage
numbers will drop.
His ADP according to
MockDraftCentral.com is 72, as the 21
st receiver off the board ahead
of Demaryius Thomas, Torrey Smith and Dwayne Bowe.
I’d take either of Smith or Thomas over
Jackson, simply because of the upside.
Mike
Williams may benefit from having a giant body such as Jackson opposite him,
turning him into an even better possession receiver.
He’s a good late round pickup for your
bench.
Arrelious Benn enters his third
year, one where receivers often turn a corner, but his knee injury is keeping
the former second round pick from gaining traction on the third spot.
Tight end Dallas Clark will try to prove he
has something left in the tank after nine years of greatness.
He could prove to be a decent pickup as a
forgotten tight end entity.
Take a late
round flyer on him and his veteran skills.
If healthy, he will surprise people this year.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The only thing unforgettable about the Titans 2011 season
was Chris Johnson, who cost fantasy owners their seasons by laying the proverbial
egg after a holdout.
He appeared slow
and indecisive early on, in addition to easily being felled by contact.
By the time Johnson got going it was Week 9,
and many owners had given up on him.
He
managed just four yards per carry and four rushing scores, both career lows.
The Titans as a team managed just 3.82 yards
per carry for the year, third worst in the league behind only the Giants and
Cleveland.
Second year coach Mike
Munchak will hope to improve on that, and handing Jake Locker the reins should
be a step in the right direction.
For
his 66 attempts and 34 completions last year, Locker averaged 8.2 yards per attempt,
a hefty increase over Matt Hasselbeck’s 6.9.
Yet he only completed 51.2%
of
his passes.
As a starter, he’ll also
have to improve those numbers, and still without a true stud receiver to look
for.
Nate Washington had far and away
his best year as a receiver, his first ever gaining 1,000 yards.
With Locker, those numbers could easily
increase, as Kenny Britt is injured again and facing a possible suspension for
off the field issues.
Britt has managed
just 15 games the past two years, and when knee and leg problems dog a receiver
(see Dez Bryant) I simply want no part in that.
Washington’s numbers should be similar, but leaning toward a dip because
Britt will emerge at some point.
Damian
Williams has never impressed me as he tends to be inconsistent at best.
Tight end Jared Cook exploded in the final
three games for 21 catches for 335 yards and score.
While that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll
provide this over an entire season, it does speak to his growth in the offense
and understanding of the Titans’ playbook.
Every year there’s a new player that emerges much at his position, much like
Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham did.
Jared Cook could easily be that player in 2012.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Of all the tough choices when drafting this year, none may
be more perplexing than where to take Robert Griffin III.
After Cam Newton’s incredible rookie year,
filled with a record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback, the facsimile
that is Griffin would appear primed for similar numbers.
What may be even better is that he’s under
coach Mike Shanahan, a man used to having a mobile quarterback (the name John
Elway might ring a bell) and one who will exploit all of Griffin’s
strengths.
There’s no reason to think
Griffin won’t put up numbers as a quality QB2, but as quarterbacks have become
fantasy gold once again, I’m not reaching for an unknown quantity as my
starter.
Remember Vince Young and how
great his intangibles were?
People have
pumped up Fred Davis as the best tight end here but don’t lose sight of Chris
Cooley.
Having managed just 28 games in
the past three seasons, Cooley may not be as young or reliable as he once was,
but Shanahan has made solid tight ends flourish in his offenses, including the
likes of Shannon Sharpe and Tony Scheffler.
Cooley’s a good route runner and has very reliable hands, while Davis
has had issues with suspensions and inconsistency.
Davis will be the TE1 to start the season, but
watch Cooley in the pre-season as Washington plans on testing out his balky
knee with fervor.
Roy Helu has his fans
but I’m not one of them.
First, he’s in
a Shanahan system where rarely now does one back dominate over the others.
Veteran Tim Hightower and youngster Evan
Royster are in the mix for carries, with Hightower likely to get the call around
the goal line.
Second, Helu started five
games last year, and had three strong appearances, but they were against the
likes of Seattle, New England and the NY Jets.
They were middle third rushing defenses all year, with Seattle’s making
the most improvements as the year went on.
He was then completely shut down by the Giants and the Eagles.
For PPR leagues, Helu makes a more intriguing
candidate as he has good hands.
Pierre
Garcon joins Washington for his first season as a certain WR1, as I think
Santana Moss is now the second option.
However, Garcon never really had that position, and now that he may face
double-teams, we'll see what he's about.
Leonard Hankerson will be most interesting considering his one start
last year against Miami, one which resulted in eight catches for 106 yards.
Drafting any Washington wide receiver comes with trepidation as we're waiting
to find out what a regular season game with RGIII really means.
